This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.

My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) was down the most in March but recovered about 35% of the loss in April leaving Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) the dubious honor of being my worst performer, down over 30% in the first four months of the year.

April showed improvement as many companies reported positive earnings reports or beat expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained some ground in April as did the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index was up with stocks like Apple, Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) improving significantly on very strong reports. Google is up over 25%.

Most of my picks improved. Higher food prices no doubt helped Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) which recaptured losses moving up 23% from its recent bottom. My two winners Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) were joined by a third, Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) which had a 10% swing entering positive territory.

After three months it is time to face the facts: two of the three indices beat my picks handily. I have not made a good showing so far and unlike most investment idea sources, I feel obliged to air my dirty laundry for all to see.

My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE:NCT) is down almost 37% this year, and the energy stocks did almost as poorly even though fuel prices are near all-time highs. The downers were not offset by this months' repeat winners.

March was a seesaw battle, but in the end there was not much to show for it. However, unlike the last day of January (down 370 points in the Dow) and February's last trading day (down 315 points), March had a final day of plus 46.49, which is not very meaningful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave some ground in March as did the Standard & Poor's 500 Index while the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index was marginally up with stocks like Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) improving notably.

Most of my picks sagged a little more, while two remain in positive territory. Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor is up and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) is way up.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Apple, AstraZeneca and KLA-Tencor were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Thomas Weisel upgraded Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Overweight from Market Weight, citing a re-set in FY08 expectations and expected growth from Mac market share gains, accelerating iPhone revenue growth and increased iPhone ASPs.
  
• WestLB upgraded shares of AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) to Add from Hold as they believe the company's growth in core franchises are being overlooked.
  
• Citigroup upgraded KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) to Buy from Hold , as they believe several near-term catalysts are likely to develop against an increasingly favorable cyclical backdrop. They think KLAC's near-term business is better than most think and maintain a $56 target on the stock.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Goldman upgraded Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) to Buy from Neutral and added shares to the Conviction Buy List.
  
• UBS (NYSE: UBS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill and added to the Europe 1 List.
  
• Jefferies raised comScore (NASDAQ: SCOR) to Buy from Hold.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• In a deal that values Global Ship Lease at about $500M, the Wall Street Journal reported that Marathon Acquisition Corp. (AMEX: MAQ) is expected to acquire a majority stake, or 66%, in the firm that acquires and charters vessels to container shipping companies.
• Activist investors are moving in on Circuit City Stores Inc (NYSE: CC), which is expected to result in a change of management as the company's turnaround efforts have failed and many investors have jumped ship, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street".

OTHER PAPERS:

• JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) was in talks last night about raising its bid for The Bear Stearns Companies Inc (NYSE: BSC) by 500% in order to appease angry Bear shareholders who have vowed to fight the deal, the New York Times reported.

WEB SITES:

• The mining industry is consolidating, Business Week noted, and investment pro Richard Steinberg, sees Anglo American Plc (NASDAQ: AAUK) as a possible takeover target due to its sizable deposits of platinum and ferrous and nonferrous metals.
• Perfect World Co Ltd (NASDAQ: PWRD), a big player in China for online gaming, has seen its share price shoot up to $37 in October, up from $16 back in July, Business Week reported, and then slide back down to $21.90, attracting investors again.
• Business Week reported that investors are flocking to overseas investments and opportunities as they have become spooked by Bear Stearns' collapse, and the prospect of a protracted U.S. financial crisis or recession. John Maloney, president of M&R Capital Management says it makes sense to put money in non-U.S. investments, particularly in Liberty Global Inc (NASDAQ: LBTYA), a major cable company.

Earlier in the week I posted about finding the market bottom using that age-old handheld calculator, a white paper napkin. So, unfortunately it looks like I may be right again. Not exactly something I was hoping for, but if it has to be, it has to be. I wonder if my old napkin can outperform Wall Street super computers?

Is this an auction to the bottom? Are investors bidding things down instead of up? Looks like it from all the negative sentiment. Consumer sentiment is down, and short sellers are all excited, increasing their negative positions to new highs every day.

And here is the all-telling sign of capitulation: the ever-lying overly optimistic government is starting to admit how bad things are and throwing hundreds of billions of dollars at the problem. When does the turnaround come?

What's a value investor to do, my oh my...

Well folks, I have been following Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) for quite some time now. We own it in one portfolio, but recently I missed what now looks like a great opportunity to load up on it for the long haul.

In January the stock was trading under $25 for a few days but I was on vacation -- I'm forced to take one every so often by my family, I'm sure some of you know how that is. This was the week the DJIA dropped over 500 points one day when Bernanke dropped the Fed rate by a full point.

When I returned I set a stock alert for $26 per share thinking this would be doable. Unfortunately the lowest price it was available at in February was $27.20, intraday, on the 5th. It has only gone up since and closed yesterday at $33.28. It is trading up $1.35 mid-day to $34.63. All I can do is keep watching for another opportunity and be patient.

Anybody out there get in at the right time? AAUK is one of my picks for 2008 Chasing Value: Anglo American diamonds and gold are your best friend. Mr. noital has been cherry picking my picks for a while now -- anybody else out smart the 'professor'?

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of AAUK.

Update: AAUK closed at $34.635 (UP 1.355)

Two months into the year and investors' true 'metal' was tested, and mine more than most. February showed signs of improvement over January, but the last week ended hopes of any rally. The last day of January saw a 370 point drop in the Dow and February's last trading day closed with similar results, down 315 points.

The soft stock market did display many points worth noting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was about break even for the month, indicating investors were showing some signs of support for large cap stocks, prompted in part by news of increased profits at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and share buy-backs at IBM Corp (NYSE: IBM).

I cannot say the same for the other major indices, NASDAQ Composite Index and Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which dropped significantly last month.

Some of my picks also sagged a little more, although not as much, while two turned into positive territory. In January, only Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech, defense contractor, was up. In February, the weak dollar and inflation concerns boosted Anglo American plc (ADR) and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) -- two commodity plays.

January was a wild ride and February holds the promise of more of the same after yesterday's 370 point drop in the Dow. All the major indices were down in January and so were seven of my eight picks. Only Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, was up. My two high flyers from last year, Huaneng Power International, Inc. (ADR) (NYSE: HNP) and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), were the biggest losers.

I have not changed my opinion of these stocks from that of the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 and I am following them closely for buying opportunities. We have already added more Newcastle Investment Corp. (NYSE: NCT) and Huaneng Power to our holdings.

Among the indices, the DJIA lost the least and the NASDAQ lost the most. The average return for my eight picks was -7.82%. This underperformed the average of the indices that was -7.58% -- but my new stalking horse Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) bested both, so Buffett is still the man.

Now including dividends for my picks which average 3.91% divided by 12 for the one month allows for an additional .326%, reducing the loss to -7.494%. Using 1.8% for the average dividend of the indices divided by 12 adds 0.15%, reducing the loss to -7.43%. The dividends tighted things up. BRK.B does not pay a dividend.

The following are my eight picks with the starting share price as of December 28, 2007:

MAJOR PAPERS:

• In a move to capitalize on its Hollywood franchise, JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) is expected to announce plans today to invest $200M of its own money into the entertainment industry, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• The WSJ also reported that while stocks like Countrywide Financial Corporation (NYSE: CFC) may face big discounts to book value, signs of the turmoil in the credit market are beginning to appear elsewhere causing analysts to remain cautious on jumping back in to banking stocks.

OTHER PAPERS:

• With the recent news of a 3-for-1 share proposal for Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE: RTP) by BHP Billiton Limited (NYSE: BHP), rumors have been flying of another potential merger between Anglo American Plc (NASDAQ: AAUK) and Xstrata, the Guardian reported.

WEBSITES/MAGAZINES:

• Fortune has learned that Liz Claiborne Inc (NYSE: LIZ) has received at least two final round bids for nine of its apparel brands, but the outcome is in doubt as some of the potential suitors dropped out.

Anglo American PLC ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK) shares are soaring in response to BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP)'s bid to buy Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP). Analysts have speculated that if BHP is successful in its attempt to become the first super-major mining company, it would draw the heat of government regulators, forcing it to sell off some of its assets to competitors like AAUK. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on AAUK.

After hitting a one-year high of $36.23 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $23.38 in August. AAUK opened this morning at $36.93. So far today the stock has hit a low of $36.67 and a high of $38.08. As of 11:00, AAUK is trading at $37.41, up $4.89 (15.0%). The chart for AAUK looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell rating.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The mortgage finance sector, Applebee's, Fuel-Tech, BHP Billiton, Anglo American and Rio Tinto were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Lehman downgraded the mortgage finance sector to Negative from Neutral citing the potential of over $100B in losses for the group in the coming years. Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight; IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB) and Countrywide Financial Corporation (NYSE: CFC) were downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight.
  
• Applebee's International (NASDAQ: APPB) was downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Wachovia, as the firm sees potential downside risk if the company's acquisition of IHOP Corp (NYSE: IHP) does not go through, following mixed reviews from Proxy firms.
  
• Merriman downgraded shares of Fuel-Tech (NASDAQ: FTEK) to Sell from Neutral after channel checks indicated the competitive landscape is much more challenging than commonly perceived for the FUEL CHEM product line. Merriman sees significant risk to shares at current levels.
  
• Citigroup downgraded shares of BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP), Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) to Hold from Buy on valuation following the recent rally.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Lehman downgraded the specialty finance sector to Neutral from Positive; the firm downgraded American Express Company (NYSE: AXP), Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) and Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS) to Equal Weight from Overweight.
  
• Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs.
  
• JP Morgan downgraded Dollar Tree Stores (NASDAQ: DLTR) to Underweight from Neutral.
  
• Angiotech Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ANPI) was downgraded to Sector Performer from Sector Outperformer at CIBC and to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent, General Motors and Anglo American were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) was downgraded to Reduce from Buy at WestLB and to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse following the company's Q3 profit warning.
  
• WestLB downgraded shares of Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) to Reduce from Hold following Ericsson's profit warning, as they believe Alcatel-Lucent's mobile business will face top-line and margin issues.
  
• Bear Stearns downgraded shares of General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) to Underperform from Peer Perform after learning that benefits from the new union contract will be lower than expected in 2008 and 2009. The broker recommends swapping into Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F).
  
• HSBC downgraded shares of Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) to Neutral from Overweight on valuation. Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of Anglo to Equal Weight from Overweight also on valuation, as they see better value elsewhere in the sector.
  

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Merrill Lynch downgraded Westpac Banking Corporation (NYSE: WBK) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB) was downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Piper Jaffray.
  
• Citigroup downgraded SRA International (NYSE: SRX) to Hold from Buy.
  
• UBS downgraded THQ Inc (NASDAQ: THQI) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Lehman Brothers downgraded Syngenta (NYSE: SYT) to Equal Weight from Overweight.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Refiners, MasTec, Cognos, Forest Labs and Reuters Group were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Bernstein upgraded shares of Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE: MRO), Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO), Sunoco Incorporated (NYSE: SUN) and Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) to Market Perform from Underperform.
• MasTec Incorporated (NYSE: MTZ) was upgraded to Buy from Accumulate at Think Equity and to Buy from Hold at SMH Capital on valuation following yesterday's sell-off.
• JP Morgan upgraded shares of Cognos Incorporated (NASDAQ: COGN) to Overweight from Neutral citing solid end demand, expanded sales capacity, indications that C8 adoption should see an uptick, and the Applix Inc (NASDAQ: APLX) acquisition.
• Forest Laboratories Inc (NYSE: FRX) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies, as the firm believes Forest's victory in the Lexapro patent case eliminates a major overhang and returns the focus to the company's pipeline.
• Lehman upgraded shares of Reuters Group (NASDAQ: RTRSY) to Overweight from Equal Weight to reflect benefits from the company's merger with Thomson Corporation (NYSE: TOC).

OTHER UPGRADES:

• UBS upgraded shares of General Mills Inc (NYSE: GIS) to Buy from Neutral.
• Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE: TMA) was upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital Markets.
• CIBC World Markets upgraded EDO Corporation (NYSE: EDO) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer.
• Bernstein upgraded shares of Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) to Outperform from Market Perform and shares of Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) to Market Perform from Underperform.

BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE: BHP) opened at $61.04. So far today the stock has hit a low of $60.35 and a high of $62.02. As of 10:50, BHP is trading at $61.11, down $2.96 (4.6%).

After hitting a one year high of $68.88 in July, the stock has taken a couple of big hits over the past month. Trade union Solidarity is threatening a strike over wages beginning this weekend that would disrupt output at mines owned by BHP and several competitors including Anglo American PLC (NASDAQ: AAUKD). Anglo Platinum and Impala Platinum Holdings recently reached a deal with unions that will increase wages by up to 10% for nearly 40,000 employees at the companies' South African mines. Technical indicators for BHP are bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a very negative 1 STARS (out of 5) strong sell rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bear-call credit spread above the $70 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk and leverage returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just 6 weeks as long as BHP is below $70 at September expiration. BHP would have to rise by more than 14% before we would start to lose money.

BHP has never been above $70 at all this year, and has shown some resistance around $65 recently. This trade could be risky if metal prices soar further, but even if that happens, it could be tough for the stock to get back over the $69 level where it topped out in July.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in BHP or AAUKD.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• According to Barron's Online's (subscription required) "Inside Scoop" column, Blockbuster Inc (NYSE: BBI) CEO James Keyes purchased 679,250 class A shares on Monday at an average price of $4.42 per share.
• The Financial Times (subscription required) reported that Nortel Networks Corporation (NYSE: NT) is open to acquiring companies.

OTHER PAPERS:

• The New York Times reported that British mining company Anglo American plc (NASDAQ: AAUKD) is going to begin the process of selling Tarmac, with possible buyers including Orascom Construction Industries, Lafarge Coppee (NYSE: LR), and Cemex (NYSE: CX).
• From BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street" column:
• UAL Corporation's (NASDAQ: UAUA) stock has soared to around $44 from $21 in February 2007, and Daniel McKenzie of Credit Suisse believes UAL is a potential private equity play.
• USA Technologies Inc (NASDAQ: USAT) is the largest maker of the e-port devices that enable vending machines selling soft drinks, snacks, and laundry products to accept plastic, and the company has only begun to penetrate the market, according to CEO George Jensen.
• SemBiosys Genetics, which trades in Toronto under the symbol SBS, is developing a way to make insulin from safflower.