The most important time in the reinsurance business is upon us: the January renewal. The pricing and market conditions that shape the risk-transfer prices paid by insurance companies now set the tone for the transactions to follow for the rest of the year (usually at the beginnings of April, June and July), and 2010 looks like it will provide a drastic departure from 2009. After enduring both the global financial crisis and Hurricanes Gustav and Ike in late 2008, the reinsurance industry recovered quickly, and as the 2010 renewal approached, it was evident that reinsurance rates would decline.

According to Aon Benfield's (AON) report on the Jan. 1, 2010 reinsurance renewal, Remarkable Recovery, increases on reinsurance company balance sheets from the March 2009 lows – in conjunction with low catastrophe insurance losses – put downward pressure on reinsurance rates, with property-catastrophe coverage costing 5% to 15% less than it did a year earlier.

A rapidly hardening property insurance market in the first half of the year slowed down a little bit in the third quarter, according to insurance broker Aon (AOC). Property rates increased 4% to 5% on average, with some corners of the market surging more than 20%, during the first half 2009. In the third quarter, rates were up an average of only 0.2%.

Low levels of insured loss have contributed to strong profits for property carriers, and the industry's surplus is up $463 billion -- all of which means there is little reason to pump up insurance rates. Rates should remain stable for the rest of the year.

There's only one month left. If it can pass with no major catastrophic rocket failures, the space insurance sector will look back on a fantastic -- and profitable -- 2009. Insurance for this market can be a tough business, as failures are frequent, and the cost to launch can reach (or even exceed) $250 million. So, it's not always easy to eke out a profit.

Aon (AOC) International Space Brokers forecasts space insurance sector profits of above $400 million this year, making it another strong annual performance for this line. The space carriers have sustained losses of $400 million to $450 million in 2009, but premiums paid to the insurers exceeded $800 million for the first three quarters of the year.

U.S. stock futures were higher this morning, pointing to a potential positive start on Wall Street. Investors this morning await Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speech on financial stability scheduled for 10:00 a.m. from the Fed's annual retreat at Jackson Hole. In the face of recent financial turmoil, namely talk of a government bailout for Fannie and Freddie, as well as troubles at Lehman, Bernanke's speech will likely be today's highlight. Meanwhile, oil dropped a little from Thursday's advance.

Indeed, the Wall Street Journal reports that Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) "executives are sounding out private-equity firms and other investors about the possibility of buying new common or preferred shares in the mortgage company." But of course, investors are worries their investments in Freddie or Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) may be lost in case of a government bailout. Even Warren Buffett opined on the matter on CNBC this morning, saying he expects the government to take action to support troubled mortgage financiers.

Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) is rebounding this morning after an analyst at Ladenburg Thalmann upgraded LEH to Buy Thursday, saying it is vulnerable to a hostile takeover.

Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) is close to an agreement with Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), according to the Wall Street Journal. Conceding they need help with search, the deal could make Google the default search provider on Verizon devices.

Willis Group Holdings (NYSE: WSH), the third largest insurance broker, is about to become much bigger. Yes, the company has announced a $2.1 billion acquisition of Hilb Rogal & Hobbs (NYSE: HRH). The transaction is half cash and half stock. Although, Willis plans a $1 billion buyback to sop up the shares.

Based on the financials, the deal looks smart. Willis plans to realize annualized synergies of about $140 million by 2012. What's more, the transaction should be accretive to cash earnings on the close (which is expected in the Q4).

More importantly, Willis is likely to boost its growth. After all, there will be a doubling of North American revenues. There will also be a stronger footprint in New York, Boston, New Jersey, California, Florida, Philadelphia and Illinois. In other words, expect more pressure on McLennan Cos. (NYSE: MMC) and Aon (NYSE: AOC).

Something else: HRH will add expertise in key areas like personal lines, healthcare, environmental and executive risk.

No doubt, Willis is engaging in a transformative acquisition. The deal is the biggest in the sector since Marsh & McLennan's purchase of Sedgwick Group in 1998.

There are definitely some big risks for Willis.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Google, Boyd Gaming and Microsoft were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Kaufman Bros. believes Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) has "only begun to scratch the surface" of its local market opportunity. Shares were assumed with a Buy rating and $680 target.
  
• Banc of America believes Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD) will face financing challenges with its Echelon resort, and initiated shares with a Sell rating and $14 target.
  
• Lehman reinstated Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) with an Equal Weight rating and $34 target based on peaking Vista/Office 2007 cycles, uncertain online strategy, and increased investment.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Goldman started AON Corp. (NYSE: AOC) with a Neutral rating.
  
• Broadpoint initiated Covanta (NYSE: CVA) with a Buy rating and $32 target.
  
• Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO) was assumed at Citigroup with a Buy rating and $48 target.

Aon (NYSE: AOC) thinks that risk brokerage and consulting has the best future, in terms of margins and growth.

To that end, the company announced Monday that it is selling off its underwriting businesses. Combined Insurance Company was sold for $2.4 billion to ACE Limited (NYSE: ACE), while Munich Re bought Aon's Sterling Life segment for $352 million.

Yes, even in the massive insurance business, this is a good chunk of change for Aon.

Stock futures indicated yet another lower open for U.S. stocks Monday morning as investors still digested recent data that suggests not only an economic slowdown, perhaps even a recession, at the same time as it suggested prices are increasing and higher inflation looms bright.

Not helping the mood this morning were former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who spoke on ABC's This Week, voicing his own concerns about the economy stands a higher chance these days to go into stagflation where economic growth is stagnant while prices are pressured upward. Greenspan also called for the government to give homeowners who have problems paying their mortgage, some sort of financial aid.

Meanwhile, the holiday shopping season isn't going too well at both brick-and-mortar as well as online retailers. The weather has kept many from shopping the past weekend, as did economic concerns. Despite the weather not being a factor, it seems that web stores have also struggled.

These concerns may stop the Fed's current easing mode of the past three meetings as it attempts to juggle the economy falling into a recession, easing the pressures in the credit market, while keeping inflation in check.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Dick's Sporting, Ericsson and Deutsche Telekom were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded shares of Dick's Sporting (NYSE: DKS) to Buy from Hold based on valuation, margin expansion and increased visibility.
• Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) was raised to Buy from Hold at WestLB on valuation following yesterday's sell-off. The firm feels investors need to look beyond 2008.
• Lehman upgraded shares of Deutsche Telekom (NYSE: DT) to Equal Weight from Underweight as they believe earnings momentum will be seen in the near-term.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• UBS upgraded Nova Chemical (NYSE: NCX) and Orient-Express (NYSE: OEH) to Buy from Neutral.
• Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
• Goldman upgraded AON Corp. (NYSE: AOC) to Buy from Neutral.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Negotiations continued last night on a new labor agreement between Chrysler and the UAW, but it is unclear if an agreement will be reached by today's 11am deadline, reported the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
• MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) is today expected to announce plans to build a $5B resort in Atlantic City, NJ that will be completed in 2012, reported the Wall Street Journal.
• The CEO of Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche Holding (OTC: RHHBY), Franz Humer, said he has no intention of increasing his company's $75 per share bid for U.S. diagnostics company Ventana Medical Systems (NASDAQ: VMSI), and is "very confident" that the offer will succeed, reported the Financial Times (subscription required).

OTHER PAPERS:

• Crain's Chicago Business reported that Aon Corporation (NYSE: AOC) has won back the insurance brokerage business of Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD).

WEBSITES:

• Harry Reid, the Senate Majority Leader, confirmed that there's little chance this year -- due to a crowded legislative calendar -- that there will be legislation to increase taxes on the private equity industry, reported TheDeal.com (subscription required).

Insurance and risk management company Aon Corporation (NYSE: AOC) is posting good returns in all three business units on the three most important quantitative metrics: organic growth, margin expansion, earnings improvement. The stock is worth considering as part of a balanced value-income portfolio. Its P/E multiple is just above industry standard, but its EPS is 50% above industry average. Even with a market cap in excess of $12 billion, AON stock still returns 10% quarterly growth year over year, far in excess of industry standard. The stock has already appreciated in price more than 15%, opening the year trading at $35.39 and closing on June 12 at $41.80.

Aon Corporation recently reported very good 1Q 2007 earnings. Revenue was up 10% for the quarter to $2.4 billion, 5% of which was due to organic growth. Net income increased 8% to $213 million or EPS of $0.66. Net income from continuing operations rose 23% to $212 million. Aon posted these numbers despite a tough North American market in which rising health care costs have put pressure on medical insurance and risk management companies. During this quarter, Aon realized restructuring savings of $46 million and is on track to realize FY 2007 savings of $235 million and FY 2008 savings of $280 million. The company also repurchased $345 million of its stock and has authorization from its board to repurchase up to $2 billion of its stock.

The Risk and Insurance Brokerage Service segment posted an impressive 8% gain in revenue due to new US business and 8% in Asia Pacific. Overall, this unit posted a 6% revenue increase despite soft markets in the UK and Australia. The Consulting unit increased revenue by 7% to $329 million despite the termination of large outsourcing contracts. The Insurance Underwriting unit grew revenue by 16% to $574 million, up $79 million from 1Q 2006. At the same time as it posted organic growth revenues, Aon Corporation also increased policyholder benefits 27% to $323 million. Clearly, Aon Corporation has developed a profitable business strategy even in the midst of a challenging economic and political environment regarding health care insurance costs.