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Apple after the bell 9/6/06: rumors affecting the stock

Apple ended the day down $1.45, down 2.03% to $70.03. Yesterday enthusiastic trading drove the stock up quickly and nicely as the rumormill buzzed about new iPod announcements, movie download possibilities, and the possibility of a larger iMac.

Well, the iMac is out. And as is often the case with Apple stock, now that the actual good news is out, the stock corrects itself downwards. It's an odd feature of Apple stock that the rumors have often more of an effect on the stock than the actual announcement. Look for some seesawing corrections all throughout the late part of this week as this continues.

Apple after the bell 9/5/06: movie download rumors drive stock up

Today was a big day for Apple on the market. Starting around 10:30am the stock began climbing until it ended up $3.10 to $71.48, a 4.53% leap in price. Why the solid leap? No doubt it's being driven up due to rife speculation about the impending movie download plans coming out this September 12th.

But before you get excited, realize that the excitement is being priced in. Apple stock has a history of dipping after announcements because the rumor mill either found out about it first, or because it wasn't the amazing product that Apple never said it was or was not going to deliver. Keep that in mind when watching the rumors fly.

Apple's movie plans confirmed

I've pointed out that Apple's ability to negotiate with movie industry executives to be able to allow iTunes Music Store to carry videos will be key in Apple's plans to continue making the iPod the hippest media device around. Macminute points out an article that confirms that Lions Gate Entertainment has plans to offer movies through iTunes, as well as MovieLink and Cinema Now, and this will happen before the end of the year. At that point, will we see a name change? ITMS could go from iTunes Music Store to iTunes Media Store.

This places the iPod in a crucial place. The iPod is the storage center for an increasing ecosphere of iPod-enabled objects. From cars to computers to soon TVs, putting Apple at the top of pyramid of media devices. There is no resting on laurels here, the moment someone stops someone else can step up. We saw this happen when Apple snapped the lead away from Creative.

There are some less-than-positive pieces to this piece of good news for Apple. Unlike with the music offerings, Apple doesn't have exclusivity in its movie offerings, so customers will have a wide variety of services to choose to try. This works in the customers' favor, but Apple won't have the easy edge it snagged before. Secondly, Apple is supposedly choosing a rental approach for the movies.

I think the second issues will have the greatest impact. Are customers ready to pay but not get to keep the media around? Certainly in the past online customers haven't seemed too excited about the idea of this, can even Apple's hype change the average consumers mind? It will probably depend on the price.

Tobias Buckell is a freelance blogger, futurist, and author who grew up in the Caribbean. He owns shares in Apple.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 04:02 PM

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