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Options Update: Arcelor Mittal volatility low at 69 on banker leverage discussions

Arcelor Mittal (NYSE: MT) closed at $29.87. MT is in advanced discussions with its principle bankers to improve its financial leverage covenant banking facility. MT is expected to report Q2 EPS on July 29. MT August and December option implied volatility of 69 is below its 26-week average of 77, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Regis Corp (NYSE: RGS) closed at $12.23. RGS announced on July 8 a convertible note offering and a common stock offering of 11.5M RGS shares priced at $12.37, with net proceeds of $281M. RGS July option implied volatility is at 62, August and December is at 65; verses its 26-week average of 66, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: DTV, LEA, MT, WMT, YHOO

Analyst upgrades:

  • Keefe Bruyette upgraded Affiliated Managers Group (NYSE: AMG) to Market Perform from Outperform to reflect the rebound in equity and fixed income markets as well as an attractive risk/reward profile. The firm raised its target on shares to $72 from $61.
  • Jefferies upgraded AGCO Corp. (NYSE: AGCO) to Buy from Hold as it believes equipment sales in Brazil are holding up better than expected and farm stimulus should set a floor in sales. The firm raised its target on shares to $36 from $25.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) to Buy from Hold to reflect reduced balance sheet risk and a more positive view on the steel sector. The raised its target on shares to $42 from $23
  • Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
  • Synovus (NYSE: SNV) was raised to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust.
  • First American (NYSE: FAF) was lifted to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: DTV, LEA, MT, WMT, YHOO

Steel: Six stocks with strong turnaround potential

"The steel stocks tend to go through boom and bust cycles depending on global economic activity; they have been pummeled over the last year, as the global economy slowed," notes turnaround expert George Putnam.

In his The Turnaround Letter, he explains, "But the news about steel is not all bad." Indeed, he believes some steel companies are poised for a turnaround. Here's his review of 6 leading steel production companies.

"Weakness in two big steel consuming industries, autos and construction, has been particularly troublesome for the steelmakers.

"However, there is evidence that steel inventories are gradually being worked off to low levels. There are also signs that economic activity in China, which is a huge consumer of steel, will not fall off as far as some economists initially feared.

Continue reading Steel: Six stocks with strong turnaround potential

Options Update: Intel volatility near eight-month lows into EU fine of $1.45 billion

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is recently up 17 cents to $15.38 in pre-open trading. INTC was fined $1.45 billion by the European Union for using rebates to impede competition. INTC said orders and billing so far in the June quarters have been better than INTC originally expected. INTC May 15 straddle is priced at 63 cents, June 15 is priced at $1.65. INTC option implied volatility of 44 is below its 26-week average of 52, according to Track Data suggesting decreasing price movement.

Arcelor Mittal (NYSE: MT) closed at $26.23. MT has recently announced it would make layoffs and idle iron-producing operations. MT June option implied volatility of 80 is below its 26-week average of 93, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

ArcelorMittal (MT) might shut down mines to cut costs

MT logoArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT - option chain) shares are headed higher today after the company announced it may close two of its Siberian coal mines temporarily in order to reduce costs during the economic downturn. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on MT.

MT opened this morning at $19.41. So far today the stock has hit a low of $18.54 and a high of $19.49. As of 11:30, MT is trading at $19.09, up 1.41 (8.0%). The chart for MT looks neutral.

Continue reading ArcelorMittal (MT) might shut down mines to cut costs

Earnings highlights: Viacom, UBS, RIM, ArcelorMittal, Lions Gate, McAfee and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Viacom, UBS, RIM, ArcelorMittal, Lions Gate, McAfee and others

The week in preview: Coke versus Pepsi

It's about that time again: Pepsi vs. Coke. No, not another taste test or another Battle of the Brands. It's time for the next quarterly results from these two soft drink titans.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate that PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP), global beverage and snack food giant, will report fourth-quarter earnings this week that are 9.1% higher that a year ago, or $0.88 per share. Revenue is expected to total $12.8 billion, which is 3.9% higher than last year. For the full year, the profit is expected to be $3.67 per share on revenue of $43.4 billion, up from $3.38 per share on $39.5 billion in 2007. PepsiCo's earnings met or beat estimates in four of the past five quarters, but missed by only two cents per share in the third quarter. The consensus recommendation of analysts remains to buy PEP. The share price fell to a 52-week low in January and is now 24.4% lower than it was a year ago. During the fourth quarter, PepsiCo declared a $0.42 per share quarterly dividend, agreed to acquire a Spitz International, and announced investments in China and Mexico.

Continue reading The week in preview: Coke versus Pepsi

Money losers of 2008: Falling demand for steel melt's Lakshmi Mittal's fortune

This post is part of our feature on Money Losers of 2008. See all 20.

Being number four on the Forbes list of wealthiest persons in the world can't be too bad. That's where British-Indian industrialist Lakshmi Mittal found himself earlier this year, up one place from the year before. His estimated $45 billion placed him just behind Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, and Carlos Slim. But that was before he lost $30.5 billion this year.

Now a resident of London, Mittal was the founder of steelmaker Mittal. Upon its merger with French steelmaker to become ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT), the world's largest steel producer, he became the new conglomerate's chairman and CEO. ArcelorMittal's stock price was up around $104 per share this past June. But after increased production cuts due to the sudden fall in demand for steel in the past six months, the price has since dropped to around $25 a share now. Mittal, who owns 43 percent of the company, has seen a commensurate drop in value.

Mittal had been pursuing the acquisition of a controlling stake in Dillinger Hütte, a German steelmaker, which would have helped shore up ArcelorMittal during these difficult global economic conditions. He had wanted to engineer a full takeover of Dillinger as a way to boost the overall technological capabilities of ArcelorMittal, but it didn't quite work out. As a sort of consolation prize, the company will receive about $1 billion for a portion of its stake in the German company.

Continue reading Money losers of 2008: Falling demand for steel melt's Lakshmi Mittal's fortune

ArcelorMittal (MT) doubles production cut to 30%

MT logoArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT - option chain) shares have dropped sharply after the company announced it will cut steel production globally by 30% during the fourth quarter due to declining prices and sluggish growth. MT had previously announced a 15% production cut earlier this year. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on MT or another steel manufacturer.

This morning, MT opened at $26.01. So far today the stock has hit a low of $25.73 and a high of $27.52. As of 12:25, MT is trading at $26.16, down $5.54 (17.5%). The chart for MT looks bearish.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bear-call credit spread above the $40 range.

Continue reading ArcelorMittal (MT) doubles production cut to 30%

Options Update: Steel producers volatility elevated on decreasing revenue; MT, MTL, X

Arcelor Mittal (NYSE: MT), a global steel producer, is recently trading at $26.90 in pre-open trading, below its close of $31.70. MT reported Q3 EPS of $2.79 verses consensus of $4.01. MT December option implied volatility of 94 is above its 26-week average of 54 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Mechel Steel (NYSE: MTL) closed at $9.01 Tuesday. MTL is a Russian mining, steel and power company. MTL December option implied volatility of 177 is above its 26-week average of 88 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

US Steel (NYSE: X) is recently trading at $38.75 in pre-open trading, below its close of $41.17. X November option implied volatility of 97 is above its 26-week average of 71 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

The week in preview: Expectations remain high for energy and oil

The focus of last week's preview was on oil and energy companies, and we saw that big oil had a good week, reporting better-than-expected results and record profits driven by high prices in the third quarter. Energy-related companies are well represented again this week and expectations in general remain high.

Early in the week, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that the big earnings gainers will include EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), and Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC), which are expected to post profits of $2.24 per share (up 64.7% from a year ago), $1.48 per share (up 52.7%) and $2.26 per share (up 61.1%) respectively. All three of them have offered positive surprises in recent quarters, and analysts on average recommend buying EOG and Anadarko. Other expected big earnings gainers early in the week include Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD), Comstock Resources Inc. (NYSE: CRK), and MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA). The earnings of phosphates producer Innophos Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: IPHS) are expected to have risen 92.3% to $3.37 per share. Innophos beat estimates in the previous quarter by a whopping 210%, and analysts have been impressed with Innophos's lack of debt and pricing gains despite the slowing economy, so, on average, they recommend buying IPHS.

Also early in the week, analysts expect Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT), Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU), and Oshkosh Corp. (NYSE: OSK) to report that their profits fell 52.9% to $0.33 per share, 45.1% to $0.67 per share, and 41.2% to $0.67 per share, respectively. These companies have tended to beat estimates in recent quarters, and the consensus recommendations of analysts are to buy them. However, PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI), one of the largest private mortgage insurance providers in the U.S., is expected to take another hit as the housing slump drags on. The California-based company is expected to have widened its net loss from $1.04 per share a year ago to $2.43 per share in the most recent quarter. Its shares are down 84.5% from a year ago, and have been trading recently near their 52-week low.

Continue reading The week in preview: Expectations remain high for energy and oil

Global Q & A: Conserve your resources

Eoin Treacy of Fullermoney says that as commodities prices weaken, you need to look carefully before investing.

Q. Eoin, I've read that China's annual consumption of copper has declined from a 28.66% growth rate to 2.4%. What does that mean for continued growth in China and also for the global copper market?

A. China and indeed much of Asia and the Middle East are in a generational-long period where they have to build infrastructure from the ground up. The push for educating, housing, transporting and employing large young populations requires massive investment, fueling demand for commodities across the boards.

The supply side was completely taken unawares by this demand following the 20-year crushing bear market that cut exploration budgets to the bone. That is now changing, as major mining groups compete for the best resources, particularly in politically stable parts of the world.

China continues to lead the world in terms of GDP growth, although it has recently manufactured a slowdown to combat rising inflation, generally positive for the economy.

Continue reading Global Q & A: Conserve your resources

Arcelor to jump into the BHP Billiton/Rio Tinto fray?

Since 1975, Lakshmi Mittal has turned ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) into a global steel powerhouse. As a result, he's worth in excess of $45 billion. Actually, as an indication of his power, Mittal is now a board member of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS).

And, no doubt, his dealmaking is likely to continue. In fact, there are reports that ArcelorMittal will make a play for Rio Tinto Group, which is the #2 ore producer in the world. The company is currently ensnared in a hostile takeover from BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE: BHP). Basically, ArcelorMittal may make an equity investment, which could exceed $10 billion.

Why? ArcelorMittal needs to find ways to stabilize its raw material supplies. After all, with pricing pressures, it's important to contain things.

Then again, this may ultimately be mostly noise -- to get traders excited. But, in light of ArcelorMittal's global power, investors will definitely listen.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

Titans of steel: The 'Iron Five'

"Global steel producers are thriving, and their stocks are hitting new highs," note Yiannis Mostrous and Roger S. Conrad, who add, "But the best is yet to come."

In the industry-leading Personal Finance, the two advisors explain, "We're still in the early stage of a truly global bull market cycle for steel, and the companies best positioned to take advantage are headed a lot higher." Here, they look at their "Iron Five."

"As is the case with other building blocks of economic growth, steel is enjoying explosive demand from the developing world. And with the world expanding as never before, steel companies are literally selling as fast as they can produce.

"In the August 2007, we highlighted five first-rate global steel producers. Since then, they've returned an average of 67.4%, versus a decline of 3.7% for the S&P 500.

"The Iron Five are five picks that we believe are ripe for even bigger gains. Like the last group, these stocks are often volatile. They're also vulnerable to the possibility of a general stock market slide and most of all to a dip in global demand growth, particularly from China.

Continue reading Titans of steel: The 'Iron Five'

ArcelorMittal (MT): Steel maker has 'insatiable appetite for growth'

"Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) is the only truly global steel manufacturer, operating in 60 countries on five continents," says Gordon Pape.

In his Internet Wealth Builder, he explains, "Like all steel companies, ArcelorMittal would be temporarily affected by a world recession but as a long-term international growth stock for your portfolio, it should be a winner."

"When you read through MT's 2007 annual report, you are left with the impression of a company with an insatiable appetite for growth. In just one year, MT entered into a joint venture deal for a steel mill in Saudi Arabia and built a new steel service centre in Poland.

"It also completed the acquisition of Sicarsta in Mexico, thereby creating that country's largest steel producer; received mining concessions in Senegal and purchased a 77% stake in a German gas distribution company to add to its regional energy network.

"It also bought a 51% stake in one of Turkey's largest steel companies and a 70% position in an Italian steel distributor; bought 100% of an Estonian steel galvanizing line.

Continue reading ArcelorMittal (MT): Steel maker has 'insatiable appetite for growth'

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 09:36 AM

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