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Can cancer drugs help pharma sales?

Melly Alazraki — Mon, 19 May 2008 15:10:00 EST

Filed under: Pfizer (PFE), Novartis AG ADS (NVS), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Merck and Co (MRK), Genentech Inc (DNA), Amgen Inc (AMGN), Lilly (Eli) (LLY), ImClone Systems (IMCL)

Almost everyone these days has encountered cancer in one way or another. While the rate of cancer incidence has stabilized to declined since the early 1990s and, with newer and better treatments as well as early detection, cancer death rates have also declined, the war on cancer is still far from won.

It is no surprise, then, that a few days ago, IMS Health (NYSE: RX) -- a provider of market intelligence to the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries -- said that cancer drugs sales will nearly double by the year 2012. Assuming a compound growth rate of 12-15% a year, sales will grow from $48 billion in 2008 to $80 billion by 2012.

The main contributors to growth, according to the study, are an increasing number of patients on chemotherapy, not just in major markets but in emerging markets, too, as well as longer treatment periods for growing numbers of patients. Also fueling growth are the increased use of targeted therapeutic agents, along with first-time innovations coming to the market. Expensive new biotechnology drugs, and the increasing use of combination therapies that contribute to the exploding cost of treatment will also fuel cancer drugs sales growth.

The overall pharmaceutical market grew at a 6.4% pace in 2007, meaning that with its double-digit growth rate, the cancer drug market -- today contributing 17% to global pharmaceutical sales -- will only represent a greater proportion and emphasis. Of course, there will be factors moderating growth, such as drugs losing exclusivity and financial constraints of payers.

Cancer-fighting drugs can reach the market twice as fast as the average medicine, and companies can charge as much as $50,000 for a single course of treatment. It is no surprise then that with more and more drugs coming off patent many pharma companies are turning their attention to cancer. But can it save them?

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Can cancer drugs help pharma sales? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 19 May 2008 15:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Cramer's ASCO biotech picks, and how to handle Apple

Jon Ogg — Mon, 04 Jun 2007 17:40:00 EST

Filed under: Apple Inc (AAPL)

On today's Stop Trading segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer said he was shocked that Revlimid from Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ: CELG) was hardly noticed and he thinks it's ready to run here. This down move in Celgene is a mistake according to him. He's sticking with his Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ONXX) after they gave positive data at the American Society of Clinical Onclogy ("ASCO") after the company extended the life of liver cancer patients.

Earlier today, Cramer followed up with more details on his Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) strategy as far as how much to sell and why. This is after some had further questions because of the stock being noted in Thursday's "Sell Block" on Mad Money.

My own take on these biotechs is that he's probably sticking with some of these names for too long, although time will be the real judge. Celgene has a P/E ratio north of 200 and is already worth more than $23 Billion in market cap. Onyx is one that is now at new 52-week highs and the reason it hasn't seen the "Post-ASCO" news sale is because some still feel that this could be acquired even though this one is up more than 200% from its 52-week lows. We'll see how this pans out.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer's ASCO biotech picks, and how to handle Apple originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Jun 2007 17:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Genentech ... no longer cuts it at ASCO

Jon Ogg — Mon, 04 Jun 2007 09:45:00 EST

Filed under: Before the Bell, Press Releases, Annual Meetings, Genentech Inc (DNA)

Genentech (NYSE: DNA) is perhaps losing some of its old luster to a newer and fresher group of emerging biotechs. The American Society of Clinical Oncology, or "ASCO," is in the midst of its annual meeting in Chicago, the conference that historically has offered make or break news for many a cancer-focused biotech. In previous years, Genentech saw its stock get huge a boost from all of the possibilities of Avastin as an indicated treatment for multiple forms of cancer.

This weekend, Genentech announced results of Phase III study for Avastin Plus Interferon therapy, showing it nearly doubled the median survival in patients with previously Untreated advanced kidney cancer. The company also released more of its pipeline that looks like a post-Avastin world.

Unfortunately, the data coming out of these is not good enough to fuel share buying so far. Shares are indicated down 0.7% at $78.97 in pre-market trading (8:55 a.m.) Monday. While this may change later, Genetech's parent, Roche (LSE: ROG), saw its shares fall 1.9% in London.

Avastin has been a great drug for Genentech and for cancer patients alike, but seeing as that Genentech shares have been dead money for 18-months and with the company sporting an $83 billion market cap, investors are left holding the "what's next?" bag.

Shares of Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ONXX) are up 6.7% in pre-market trading (9:23 a.m.) and Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ: CELG) shares are trading up over 1.5% on positive data at the ASCO conference.

Jon Ogg is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Genentech ... no longer cuts it at ASCO originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Jun 2007 09:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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