After hitting a one-year high of $56.60 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $35.03 in March. AZN opened this morning at $41.50. So far today the stock has hit a low of $41.29 and a high of $41.76. As of 11:55, AZN is trading at $41.42, up $0.75 (1.8%). The chart for AZN looks bullish and deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $35 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 14.9% return in just five months as long as AZN is above $35 at October expiration. AZN would have to fall by more than 15% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: AbitibiBowater, GlaxoSmithKline, AstraZeneca and Capital One were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Lehman downgraded AbitibiBowater (NYSE: ABH) to Equal Weight from Overweight citing dilution from the recent $350M convertible offering, cost pressures, and a more cautious outlook near-term for pulp markets.
JP Morgan cut GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) and AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) to Underweight from Neutral on long-term earnings growth concerns.
Keefe Bruyette lowered Capital One (NYSE: COF) to Underperform from Market Perform to reflect the company's credit outlook.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Nokia (NYSE: NOK) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS and to Underweight from Overweight at JP Morgan.
Textron (NYSE: TXT) was cut at Credit Suisse to Neutral from Outperform.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Apple, AstraZeneca and KLA-Tencor were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Thomas Weisel upgraded Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Overweight from Market Weight, citing a re-set in FY08 expectations and expected growth from Mac market share gains, accelerating iPhone revenue growth and increased iPhone ASPs.
WestLB upgraded shares of AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) to Add from Hold as they believe the company's growth in core franchises are being overlooked.
Citigroup upgraded KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) to Buy from Hold , as they believe several near-term catalysts are likely to develop against an increasingly favorable cyclical backdrop. They think KLAC's near-term business is better than most think and maintain a $56 target on the stock.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman upgraded Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) to Buy from Neutral and added shares to the Conviction Buy List.
UBS (NYSE: UBS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill and added to the Europe 1 List.
Jefferies raised comScore (NASDAQ: SCOR) to Buy from Hold.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Vodafone, AstraZeneca and Forest Oil were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Bear Stearns upgraded shares of Vodafone (NYSE: VOD) to Outperform from Peer Perform on valuation, as they believe the stock trades at a discount to peers.
AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) was raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup to reflect the potential for higher sales of the company's Crestor cholesterol pill.
Jefferies upgraded shares of Forest Oil (NYSE: FST) to Buy from Hold and raised their target to $63 from $50 following the company's "bullish" analyst conference.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Pharmasset (NASDAQ: VRUS) was raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
Deutsche Bank upgraded China Mobile (NYSE: CHL) to Buy from Hold.
Morgan Keegan upgraded RadNet (NASDAQ: RDNT) to Outperform from Market Perform.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: UBS AG, Ansys and AstraZeneca were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) to Buy from Hold after the company announced further write-downs and plans to boost capital.
Jefferies upgraded shares of Ansys (NASDAQ: ANSS) to Buy from Hold as they like the Ansoft (NASDAQ: ANST) acquisition and feel yesterday's sell-off creates an attractive entry point.
AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) was raised to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan following the positive Crestor study results.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Piper raised Akamai (NASDAQ: AKAM) to Buy from Neutral.
Goldman upgraded Hansen Natural (NASDAQ: HANS) to Buy from Neutral.
Vertex Pharma (NASDAQ: VRTX) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform at Wachovia and to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Countrywide Financial, AstraZeneca, Massey Energy and International Coal were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Wachovia upgraded Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) to Market Perform from Underperform, as they do not expect any other bidders to emerge and for the acquisition by Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) to close.
HSBC upgraded AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) to Overweight from Neutral on valuation and their belief that an agreement with Ranbaxy on Nexium is possible.
Massey Energy (NYSE: MEE) and International Coal (NYSE: ICO) were upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan citing higher coal price forecasts.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Monsanto, AstraZeneca and Millenium Pharmaceutical were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Banc of America upgraded shares of Monsanto (NYSE: MON) to Buy from Neutral as they have grown more comfortable with two previous concerns: competition and valuation. They see an attractive entry point ahead of strong expected results for Q2.
UBS upgraded shares of AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) to Neutral from Sell on valuation, as they believe many of the risks are priced into shares at current levels.
Piper upgraded Millenium Pharma (NASDAQ: MLNM) to Buy from Neutral and added shares to their Alpha List ahead of additional front-line Velcade presentations at ASCO and expected front-line Velcade approval by June 20.
AstraZeneca plc (NYSE: AZN) shares are rising today an analyst raised his rating of the stock to "Buy" from "Neutral," noting that other European pharmaceutical stocks, particularly GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK), have done better for no particular reason. He expects AZN to catch up with its competitors over the next three months, and added that large pharmaceutical companies should do well despite the ongoing economic turbulence. Investors seem to be unfazed by reports that the European Union collected confidential information about intellectual property rights and patent disputes from AZN and other drug companies in an inquiry over the potential blockage of generic drugs from entering the market. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on AZN.
After hitting a one-year high of $59.47 in April, the stock hit a one-year low of $41.59 earlier this month. AZN opened this morning at $45.46. So far today the stock has hit a low of $45.22 and a high of $45.87. As of 10:45, AZN is trading at $43.37, up $1.27 (2.9%). The chart for AZN looks bearish but improving while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
Merck announced it expects earnings between $3.08 and $3.14 a share for 2007, while analysts, on average, predicted earnings of $3.15 a share. Including items, the company predicted its earnings will fall in a range between $1.45 to $1.51 per share.
Looking ahead to 2008, the company now anticipates its profit will rise to a range of $3.28 to $3.38 a share helped by increased sales of its products. Including a $100 millionrestructuring charge and an AstraZeneca partnership gain, the company forecast earnings between $3.96 to $4.06 a share in 2008. But the target offered by Merck for 2008 also missed analysts' predictions for earnings of $3.39 a share.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the poor outlook for this economy has stemmed the flood of takeovers from abroad we'd normally see in this kind of market.
Where are the Europeans? Where are the Asians? Where are the Middle Easterners? Are they all cowed into not buying our companies despite the decline in the dollar?
Consider that there have been only two deals above $10 billion this year: AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) (Cramer's Take), which bought Medimmune for $15 billion, and Saudi Basic Industries, which purchased GE Plastics for $12 billion. No one has taken advantage of the astounding decline in the U.S. dollar to buy up enterprises.
Take two that seem absurdly low: Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR) (Cramer's Take) and Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK) (Cramer's Take). Both companies have bought in an immense amount of stock. Both companies now trade at $5 billion in value. Give them a 25% haircut and you can see how much these name-brand companies are marked down.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Air France, BHP Billiton, AstraZeneca, Broadcom and Savvis were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Goldman removed shares of Air France (NYSE: AKH) from its Conviction Buy List due to the increase in the price of fuel and the possibility of an economic slowdown.
Goldman downgraded BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) to Neutral from Buy and removed the stock from its Pan-Europe Buy List due to valuation.
Merrill Lynch downgraded shares of AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) to Sell from Neutral to reflect increased competition from generic-drug makers, a poor pipeline and slow earnings growth.
Wachovia downgraded shares of Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) to Hold from Buy to reflect valuation and the company's lower than expected Q3 results. Shares were also lowered to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Stanford lowered Savvis (NASDAQ: SVVS) to Hold from Buy and notes that the company's Q3 results and Q4 revenue guidance brings the company's 2007 revenue outlook $15M below the consensus, and advises investors to remain on the sidelines. The firm believes the company's strategy is sound, but that its execution has been slow.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: HSBC Holdings, AstraZeneca, Syneron Medical, Talbots, BankUnited and First Fed Financial were today's noteworthy downgrades:
UBS downgraded shares of HSBC Holdings(NYSE: HBC) to Neutral from Buy on valuation, rising customer defaults and slower growth at the company's the U.S. consumer-finance unit.
UBS also downgraded AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) to Sell from Neutral, as they believe the company faces major risks from drug approvals, competition and lawsuits.
Merriman downgraded shares of Syneron Medical (NASDAQ: ELOS) to Neutral from Buy following the company's Q3 earnings preannouncement due to near-term margin erosion and growth drivers that remain four quarters away.
CIBC downgraded shares of Talbots (NYSE: TLB) to Sector Performer from Outperformer as they believe 2H07 expectations are too high given the current weakness in the Missy space.
Friedman Billings downgraded BankUnited (NASDAQ: BKUNA) to Market Perform from Outperform and FirstFed Financial (NYSE: FED) to Underperform from Market Perform based on credit trends that are eroding faster than anticipated.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Merrill downgraded JMP Group (NYSE: JMP) to Neutral from Buy.
Baird downgraded Cabela's (NYSE: CAB) to Neutral from Outperform.
Deutsche Bank believes new product leverage can bring upside to consensus operating margin expectations at Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) and they view shares as attractively valued given its growth profile. The firm started shares with a Buy rating and $33 target.
Keybanc initiated shares of Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) with a Hold rating and sees slowing growth rates for revenue and net subscriber additions throughout the remainder of FY08 and beyond and thinks investor expectations are too high.
Keybanc also started shares of Taleo Corporation (NASDAQ: TLEO) with a Buy rating and $27 target, as it is well-positioned to gain market share in the Human Capital Management space.
Thomas Weisel believes McAfee Inc (NYSE: MFE) will benefit from PC market growth, enhanced awareness of the company's brand, and its renewed focus on product development for the midmarket corporate segment, and started shares with a Market Weight rating and $37 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU) was started at William Blair with an Outperform rating and at UBS with a Neutral rating and $37 target.
Merrill Lynch initiated shares of Zoltek Companies Inc (NASDAQ: ZOLT) with a Buy rating and $50 target.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sonic Automotive (SAH), Hawaiian Electric (HE), AstraZeneca (AZN), AMB Property (AMB) and ProLogis (PLD) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Goldman downgraded Sonic Automotive (NYSE: SAH) to Neutral from Buy on valuation.
Hawaiian Electric (NYSE: HE) was cut to Underweight from Equal Weight at Lehman based on valuation and the regulatory environment.
AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at MorganStanley based on the reduced buyback, the $1.6B restructuring charge and potential for Nexium generics in Europe.
Citigroup cut AMB Property (NYSE: AMB) and ProLogis (NYSE: PLD) to Sell from Hold citing the tight capital markets and the impact on costs for the downgrades...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
JP Morgan downgraded D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) to Neutral from Overweight.
AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) shares are trading higher after the FDA approved the company's anti-psychotic drug Seroquel as a maintenance treatment for patients with bipolar disorder. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on AZN.
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