Time Warner shareholders have been biting their collective nails for the past few weeks, wondering what would happen with the second quarter earnings, due out tomorrow morning before the bell. What news will accompany the financials? Will AOL subscriptions be down yet again? Will the board be doing something radical: offering AOL emails for free, spinning off a portion of the company, or (who knows) creating yet another video sharing site?

The nails were bitten down another 1.52% today in anticipation as the stock fell 25 cents to $16.25, and down a few more cents in after-hours trading. This isn't cause for alarm, though: the price is several ticks away from the 52-week low of $15.70. Keep posted tomorrow as we'll be live blogging the earnings call at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

Evidently, investors were feeling good about Microsoft's future today, after concerns late last week. Maybe it was the new version of Messenger released today. Maybe it was general warm-and-fuzzies over the prospects of leaders like Ray Ozzie, who will inherit much of Bill Gates' technology leadership (and, if Ray's listening to Steve Gillmor's advice, he will "seize control of the company alongside Steve Ballmer, not as a greater of equals with Craig Mundie"). Either way the stock was up over 2%, or 45 cents, to $22.55.

MSN Messenger has been renamed along with so many other properties under the "MSN" moniker, to "Windows Live Messenger." While I don't love this focus on the "live"-ness of everything Microsoft (as opposed to the dead messenger? We all know that instant messenger programs do get people in the flesh, it seems so redundant to have to mention that), people seem excited about the new product.

Oddly, though, the "live" debut seems to have hit a snafu ... users are reporting a "coming soon" page where the press release points to a download.

Microsoft joined the rest of the BloggingStocks universe today, closing down significantly. For MSFT, losing 57 cents took the stock down 2.4%, to $23.15, and it was despite an opening bell spike.

None of the market seemed to be much affected by individual company news today, although there was a lot of buzz today about Mr. Softie, with a number of MSFT watchers eager to see what Steve Ballmer will say tomorrow morning in his uncharacteristic chat with investors. And later this afternoon, news of pricing for Microsoft Vista ($450 is the word on the 'net) had lots of bloggers biting, wondering whether it was worth your while to pay more for your operating system than your computer (despite the bells and whistles everyone's raving over). Ryan Block at Engadget muses, "when you consider the fact that the single-license full install retail MSRP of XP Pro is still $300 US, it's not too drastically unrealistic. Don't get us wrong, we're not exactly endorsing snapping up operating systems that cost more than the machines they run on but, you know, it is Ultimate freaking Vista, dude."

The reports on Office Ulimate MSRP: $679. That's some expensive PowerPoint slides. Maybe I should sign up for pay-as-you-go. Dude. And that brings up an excellent question: if the geeks are willing to pay, will corporations follow suit?

What's the problem with iPods? Supply has been an issue, with customers and retailers joining together to bicker over that last iPod Nano come holiday time. If Apple has anything to do with it, next Christmas it will be a little easier. That is, if you're a sucker for anything that rolls out of a vending machine. It seems as if there will be 180 of the new Zoom @ Macy's vending machines -- scheduled to stock iPods -- in stores by the fall. I, for one, would much rather buy the new $29 Nike+iPod Sport in a vending machine in one of my fave running spots. Now there's an interesting business plan!

If investors heard about the new vending machines, though, they weren't impressed. AAPL was down 23 cents to $63.15 in the same end-of-day malaise that struck the rest of the market. It's a pity, as AAPL opened extremely strong, up to $65.19 in the first minutes of the trading day on below-average volume.

Confident about Vista release dates? That's what Microsoft "Windows guru" Jim Allchin told Reuters in an interview today. He's the co-president of the company's Platforms & Services Division, and the one responsible for Vista, the upcoming operating system update. The market has been highly skeptical of Microsoft's ability to release the software on time; ever since Gartner released a report indicating Vista would hit the shelves months behind schedule.

Evidently, the market remains skeptical. MSFT was way up in the morning to a respectable $23.38, but plunged at the end of the day in a market-wide sell-off, ending down nine cents at $22.79. Evidently, Allchin's confidence didn't have much sway in the face of uncertainty over commodity prices and, perhaps, the continuing incredulity of MSFT investors.

Ah, poor Softie. Where have you gone wrong? In a day when the market was generally up, Microsoft flirted with its new two-year low, closing down 27 cents to $22.56, a drop of 1.18%. MSFT took a dive in the opening minutes and never recovered. Why so low, Softie?

The volume was relatively average, so all we can do is speculate. Many Apple watchers were surprised today to discover that the consumer versions of the new MacBook and the little Mac Mini don't meet the minimum requirements for Microsoft Vista when it's released ... sometime. Is the checklist for Vista so draconian that investors can't stomach the pain of having to purchase a special graphics adaptor? Must be.

Apple was plugging along today, basking in the glow of its new (and black) MacBook, and Steve Jobs was probably patting himself on his back after yesterday's lovely write-up in the Wall Street Journal. I'm so smart, he was probably thinking, those naysayers just wish they'd invested in Apple way back when!

And then. Everybody started selling. Before MacBook could rack up its nth sale (rumored to be good even by Apple's projections), before Jobs could reach around for that acrobatic back pat, the market had hammered APPL to the tune of $2.08 -- a whopping 3.19%. The stock ended the day at $63.18.

Despite the sell-off, reviewers can't say enough good about the MacBook; MacWorld said it was faster than the fastest iBook G4 in almost all of its tests. And Forbes went raving on about the new Manhattan Apple store (in a historically dank and failure-ridden space, however). So why the big sell-off? Could it be a side-effect of bad news at rival Dell? If you sold today, what were you thinking?

No one likes to be average, even if there's a little plus sign after your "C." This grade, handed down by CNNMoney for AOL's performance as compared to other internet search firms, may have been the impetus to send Time Warner's stock down another nine cents to $17.03, despite a hopeful market open.

There certainly wasn't much in the way of love for Time Warner today. Business Week wondered if AOL wasn't moving too slow, mourning "The Ails of AOL"; Jeremy MacNealy of the Motley Fool snarks at how "pleased" Dick Parsons was despite "net revenues inching forward just 1% versus the year-ago period"; and while some analysts said Time Warner's prospects were "promising," still, it's "not enough" to get a boost in recommendations from anyone on the street.

The big news today from eBay's analyst day was that Meg Whitman was promising: now, with even more revenue growth! Her presentation, and that of the other executives from eBay proper, PayPal and Skype, were really great. Evidently, either (a) you investors weren't watching or (b) without the analysts to tell you if it was good, you weren't ready to pull the trigger. After all, if a company talks to the analysts through market close, how can they affect the market? The stock was down a teeny bit, six cents, to $34.11, on a bit better-than-average volume.

Well. If you were online with me, you were armed with more info (you know, to toot my own horn, and all). I filled you in about eBay's view of their craigslist investment; how they planned to create synergies with Skype; how proud was the company of their 7% of worldwide long distance minutes; how PayPal will soon let you buy used books at your neighbor's yard sale with your mobile phone; and how $3 billion in cash was withdrawn from ATMs via PayPal debit cards. If I had to pick one thing I came away from those hours of watching Meg & team present (I mean, something substantial... I could go on forever about fashion choices but this isn't the style blog) it was that they really believe in their vision and they are fantastic at describing it. I was feeling a little scared off by the stock's rich price, but after listening to Meg, Bob, and the Skype and PayPal execs tell me about how they're going to change the world? Boy do I want to be along for the ride.

I'd like to know what all those sellers are thinking. Really! I mean, look at this chart. There we have it, down down and more down. MSFT is now at its 52-week low -- in fact, the stock hasn't been this low since October 4, 2002. I know! Today, the stock closed at $23.17, down 3.5%. It's now trading 15% below its high last week. Ouch. Guess everyone does believe Gartner's report about Vista delays.

Those who are selling right now? In my opinion, it's irrational depression. Why sell at the low? Panic, I suppose, but it seems highly, um, foolish. Tim Beyers, he who is Motley Foolish but not, you know, foolish, agrees. He argues that, even if you buy the idea that Microsoft might be taking second fiddle to Google (the Evil-Empire-come-lately), it's still a good company to own. After all, they are rife with cash-ola and they absolutely, totally dominate the average laptop. Come on now, look around you at the coffee shop. How many laptops don't have Windows-based software?

Unless you're tapping away at my favorite worker-owned coffee collective (where everyone either has an iBook or a built-from-scratch Linux geek-machine), the answer is: few. If I owned Mr. Softee right now, I'd be holding. And if I owned a pile full of cash right now, I'd be buying. There may be more down. But I'd bet at least some of my children's future on the long-term up.