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Tell-Tale Stat: Modigliani Nude Fetches Record $68.9 Million

Experienced investors look for data points that might provide clues that both the capacity and the willingness to deploy capital is increasing.

One such barometer is art, and recent auctions for impressionist, modern, and post-war paintings have provided more evidence for cautious optimism.

Amedeo Modigliani's Nu Assis Sur un Divan (La Belle Romaine) sold for a record $68.9 million -- almost $30 million higher than the painting's estimated worth -- at a Sotheby's (BID) auction last Tuesday, wnyc.org reported. It was also the highest price for a Modigliani work at an auction.

Continue reading Tell-Tale Stat: Modigliani Nude Fetches Record $68.9 Million

Sotheby's Betting on Matisse and Warhol

Sotheby's logoAfter a dismal 2009, there is hope for the art auction segment. There was reason for optimism at in the past quarter, as the major houses started to move impressive pieces again, and momentum continued through the beginning of this year. Now, we're getting ready to move into the busy months of May and June. Unlike last year, auctioneers, collectors and dealers seem to be ready to play.

May 2008 was essentially the last hurrah of an art market rally that had lasted several years and created incredible amounts of paper canvas and bronze wealth. It was at this point that Sotheby's (BID) sold a fairly late triptych by artist Francis Bacon for an incredible $86 million to Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich, a transaction that has become the poster child for the excesses of the art market.

Continue reading Sotheby's Betting on Matisse and Warhol

Five Reasons to Watch Art Stocks in 2010

The art market spent a year and a half circling the drain. Signs of life at the end of 2009, however, have become a reality, with recent auctions at Sotheby's (BID) and Christie's (CRUPF) exceeding expectations and showing triple-digit growth from comparable auctions last year.

Overall, art prices last year were off around 50%, with the contemporary art sector suffering even more severe declines of up to 70%. With prices this low and a recovery taking shape, it's time for investors to get in, and it looks like we'll see an art rally this year.

Continue reading Five Reasons to Watch Art Stocks in 2010

Craig Newmark: eBay wasn't worth it

Craig Newmark testified on Thursday that he regretted getting into bed with auction site eBay (EBAY) almost as soon as his head hit the pillow. The founder of Craigslist, the online classified site that has decimated large chunks of the newspaper industry, sold 28% of his company to eBay in August 2004. Within months, he recounted, eBay began to pull back on its promises, causing him to regret the decision.

During the negotiations more than five years ago, Meg Whitman, who was the CEO at the time, told Newmark that eBay would be happy to sit back as a minority shareholder for several years and use Craigslist as its exclusive venue for classified ads. Yet, shortly after the deal closed, eBay pushed for a bigger piece of the company and acquired an online classified company outside the United States. Both Whitman and company founder Pierre Omidyar testified that eBay was clear about its intentions.

The lawsuit, filed by eBay against Craigslist, involves the size of the former's minority stake in the privately held, relatively low-tech and highly popular classified site. eBay claims that Newmark diluted its share to 24% through a "self-dealing" scheme to issue more equity.

Holiday shopping Madoff-style

What do you get for the person who has everything? Well, maybe you buy him a piece of history. The U.S. Marshals Service has done all the hard work, and now you can take advantage of it... maybe even at discount prices! Possessions seized from Ponzi schemer Bernie Madoff are set to go under the gavel in New York City on Saturday, so bring your checkbook and your appetite for luxury. The money will be used to compensate the victims of Madoff's crimes.

Continue reading Holiday shopping Madoff-style

BIDding down for Sotheby's, but high hopes for Q4

Sotheby's (NYSE: BID) had a great night this week, tripling the performance of competitor Christie's (OTC: CRUPF). But, it didn't come soon enough to help the company's third quarter results.

The auction house suffered from the art market slump that was exacerbated by the global financial crisis, posting a net loss of $57.8 million (89 cents a share). This is worse than the $47 million loss (73 cents a share) it delivered a year earlier. Three analysts that Bloomberg surveyed expected a loss of 29 cents a share. Revenue was off 41% to $44.9 million for the quarter.

Continue reading BIDding down for Sotheby's, but high hopes for Q4

Sotheby's reports loss but hopes for recovery

An embittered Sotheby's (NYSE: BID) has turned in its first quarterly profit in a year, showing signs that the worst of the art market slump may be over. The company, which has seen contemporary art auction prices fall 76.2% from May 2008 to today, reported a decline of 87% in earnings for the second quarter, but company CFO William Sheridan says that the worst of this market is behind us. Sell-through rates are up, with more inventory moving likely to help with sagging revenues.

But commission revenue seems to be headed in the wrong direction. For Q2, Sotheby's reported commission revenues at 21.3%, up from 41% year-over-year. Unfortunately, this isn't the measure you want to go up. Lower-priced pieces tend to have higher commission rates, meaning that the auction house's Q2 performance was dragged down by less desirable inventory.

Continue reading Sotheby's reports loss but hopes for recovery

Amazon (AMZN) second quarter earnings preview

amazon earnings previewOnline retailer Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) is due to report its second quarter earnings Thursday following the market close, and investors are hoping for a repeat performance of the company's strong first quarter results.

Analysts are expecting the company to report earnings of 31 cents per share. Ironically, when the company was due to report earnings for its first quarter, analysts were also looking for 31 cents per share, but Amazon was able to easily beat out those estimates by posting 41 cents a share for the first quarter.

Continue reading Amazon (AMZN) second quarter earnings preview

eBay jumps following first quarter earnings

eBay first quarter earningsShares of the popular internet auction site eBay, Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) are moving strongly higher today following its first quarter earnings numbers that came in well above analyst estimates.

As we discussed in our earnings preview, we knew that it was going to be a tough quarter for the company, which had sales drop in the face of declining consumer sales. Despite this, the company was able to post first quarter earnings of 39 cents per share, which is handily above the 32 cents per share that analysts were expecting to see. It earned 42 cents per share during the same period last year.

Continue reading eBay jumps following first quarter earnings

eBay (EBAY) first quarter earnings preview

Ebay Earnings PreviewOnline auction giant eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) is going to be reporting its first quarter earnings today following the market close, and analysts are looking to see the company show 33 cents per share for the quarter.

eBay has been working hard to weather the current economic storm, but has a lot of work ahead of it.

Continue reading eBay (EBAY) first quarter earnings preview

eBay (EBAY) shares hit a seven-year low

eBay hits 7 year lowShares of online auction giant eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) have dropped sharply today, pushing the stock down to lows not hit in seven years.

The stock, which has dropped over 20% so far this year, is down 8% on the day to $10.54. One of the big reasons why the site has been struggling has been the lack of confidence among buyers stemming from rampart counterfeiting that has been taking place on the site.

Continue reading eBay (EBAY) shares hit a seven-year low

Sotheby's withdrawal of Picasso painting from auction seen as bearish signal

There's a saying among the specialists and traders who do most of the living and breathing at the New York Stock Exchange that goes: "When the little guys are cutting back, that's an inconvenience. But when the big guys start cutting back, that's a problem."

Sotheby's auction house has abruptly withdrawn a Picasso Cubist painting that was set to be auctioned on November 3, The New York Times reported Monday.

This, as CNN's Larry King would say, is not good news.

1909 work is withdrawn


The painting, "Arlequin" (1909), was estimated at more than $30 million, and was one of the most expensive works in the fall art season. David Norman, a co-chairman of Sotheby's Impressionist and modern art department worldwide, told The Times the painting was withdrawn "for private reasons." Sotheby's (NYSE: BID) shares rose 20 cents to $7.85 in mid-day Tuesday trading.

Continue reading Sotheby's withdrawal of Picasso painting from auction seen as bearish signal

Earnings preview: eBay all the way?

Famed online auction platform eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), whose Internet colleagues include Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO), will be reporting earnings for the third quarter on Wednesday after the market closes up shop. What should shareholders expect from the company?

Well, according to data posted by Trey Thoelcke, shareholders shouldn't expect much. While the top line is expected to rise by double digits (around 13%) to $2.1 billion, nothing is really cooking in terms of the bottom line. The call is for $0.41 per share. eBay booked $0.41 per share in the year earlier period. As you can see, that's a 0% growth rate, and that's never good (well, unless you're a financial company, in which case that's actually great). However, there is one silver lining to the earnings story for shareholders. If you take a look at past earnings data, you'll notice that eBay has a snazzy reputation for beating estimates issued by analysts. So, I'd be willing to bet we'll see an easy beat this week.

As to whether or not this particular stock will rally upon such news, that's difficult to say. If Monday's rallying sentiment makes another visit on Wednesday, then I'd say eBay could be an interesting earnings trade, mostly because it isn't far from its 52-week low. Unfortunately, I think any rally that we get in the market right now is not to be trusted. It just can't be. Profit-taking is always going to be waiting to sap the power out of any rally, simply because we know the economy isn't going to be great for many months to come. So, even though I like the technical set-up to some degree vis a vis eBay's earnings-beating history, I personally wouldn't be buying. For me to trust any rally, I'd need to see some confirmations and additional up days.

Continue reading Earnings preview: eBay all the way?

Is high-end art slump a harbinger?

Most investors/readers know about the stream of U.S. economic statistics originating from the U.S. Commerce and Labor Departments, and from other Washington agencies, that form the basis for 'taking the pulse' of the economy.

But more experienced investors know about that group of 'unofficial statistics' that fill-in the economic landscape and frequently provide clues regarding future economic activity that the others do not. In this category, you'll find mall traffic levels, those infamous corrugated box orders, and package deliveries, as metrics of significance.

And another metric worth keeping an eye on, in the interpretation of stock exchange specialists? The demand and prices for fine art.

Fine art, antiques, and collectibles are the aesthetic knick-knacks of the gentry. Or as one New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: NYX) specialist put it, "A lot of the other metrics measure how the little guy is doing. Art demand measures how the big guys are doing."

The significance? "When the little guy is pulling back, that's a concern. But when the big guys are pulling back, now that's a problem," he said.

Art demand slowdown telegraphing global slump?

Moreover, a problem may be surfacing with the 'big guys.' Sotheby's, the world's largest, publicly-traded auction house has dropped about 20% in the past week on concern the global art market may be slowing, Bloomberg News reported. Sotheby's (NYSE: BID) shares declined 39 cents to $22.64 in Friday afternoon trading.

Sotheby's contemporary art auction on Wednesday was not a confidence builder. The sale totaled $10.4 million, well below the $14 million high estimate, will only 69% of lots selling, Bloomberg News reported. In comparison, during a similar sale a year ago, 81% of lots were purchased.

Continue reading Is high-end art slump a harbinger?

Will changes at eBay hurt the business model?

Do you like auctions? Personally, I don't. Sure, the stock market is essentially an auction, but it's an auction without a lot of noise (at least on my end). Anyway, this brings me to a BusinessWeek piece on eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) and its evolution. It looks like auctions are no more fit to survive than the dinosaurs were. Research overwhelmingly shows that users of the most famous online auction destination in the world would rather pay a fixed price for an item than haggle over it like a frantic trader at a busy bazaar.

Now, as one commenter made clear in the article, this changes the essential gene structure of eBay's DNA. But is mutation necessarily bad in this case? Not to my way of thinking. To be honest, I haven't done any eBaying directly; I usually use a friend to acquire an item for me if I'm looking for something. Not only am I too lazy to open an account, but I dread having to play the auction game. Why put up with such nuisance? When I want to buy something, I don't want to compete and see values change. Think about it: when you go to Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), do you want to barter over a bar of soap?

Okay, so we're not talking about bars of soap. We're talking about items that, to be fair, do lend themselves to the auction motif. Comic books, autographed photos, rare recordings, and so forth, are definitely fair game for the electronic gavel. Still, it's annoying. Wouldn't you rather know that a rare copy of The Texas Chainsaw Massacre for the Atari 2600 is $200, take it or leave it, and that you didn't need to get down in the pits to start bidding for it?

Continue reading Will changes at eBay hurt the business model?

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Last updated: February 11, 2012: 08:11 AM

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