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Kerkorian senses Ford may have a better idea: May up 5.5% stake

Billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian said he may up his stake in Ford beyond 5.5%, as he follows-through on his intention to purchase additional shares, Bloomberg News reported Friday.

Kerkorian, in a Friday SEC filing, reiterated that his Tracinda Corp. will pay $8.50 per share for 20 million additional shares of Ford (NYSE: F), which will give him a 5.5% stake, Bloomberg News reported. In the filing, Tracinda added that it may "from time to time, propose business strategies and, subsequent to the expiration of the offer, acquire additional shares."

Shares of Ford rose 5 cents to $8.25 in Friday morning trading on the news.

A gold star for Ford

Independent stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Friday Kerkorian's stance is "a definite gold star" for Ford, concerning its turnaround program.

"Kerkorian's decision, because of his investment history and knowledge of the auto sector, will telegraph to other institutional investors that it's time to start moderately adding to your Ford position," Bauer said. "Don't misunderstand, this turnaround story is only about 30% complete, but at this stage you can make a good case for buying a modest share amount." Bauer added that he does not have a rating on Ford nor own the company's shares.

Ford installed former Boeing (NYSE: BA) executive Alan Mulally as part of an effort to re-vamp production and revise its fleet to compete in the global auto marketplace. Ford's legacy cost reduction efforts have gone well; fleet revision progress has been slower, many analysts agree.

Continue reading Kerkorian senses Ford may have a better idea: May up 5.5% stake

AK Steel looks forward to better days for the U.S. auto sector

The market's choppy, consolidating (or perhaps worse) pattern continues. Further, the steel sector remains vulnerable to a U.S./global economic slowdown, but one company that may hold its own is AK Steel.

AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE: AKS) is the third largest U.S steelmaker, and features coated, cold rolled and hot rolled carbon steel used by the automotive, appliance and manufacturing markets, among other buyers.

Analysts expect AK Steel Holdings' 2008 revenue growth to slow to about 2%-5% in 2008 after a 16% rise in 2007. Analysts expect stainless steel raw material surcharges to end, but carbon steel should show some price improvement as companies rebuild inventories.

Longer-term, analysts likely AKS' sector position, overall product mix, debt reduction, and cost containment (particularly regarding legacy costs). The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for AKS are $4.01/$4.33.

The risks? AKS remains vulnerable to companies' willingness to rebuild steel inventories, particularly the auto sector, which accounts for more than 40% of revenue.

The First Call mean rating for AKS is: Hold. [9 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $49.00. [high: $57, low: $45.]

Stock Analysis:
AK Steel is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. More-cautious investors may want to wait for a possible pull-back in AKS' shares to about $51, but keep in mind AKS's shares may not retreat to that level. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from AKS' shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $31.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

Up to 20k workers seen accepting GM's buyout, but more may be needed

The head of the United Auto Workers union expects 15,000-20,000 workers to accept General Motors' latest buyout offer, The New York Times reported Friday.

UAW President Ron Gettelfinger said the latest buyout group would be smaller than General Motors' (NYSE: GM) 2006 buyout, when about 34,400 workers -- or one-third of GM's unionized workforce -- accepted deals, The Times reported.

GM's shares were virtually unchanged Friday on the news, rising about 10 cents to $25.92.

Too few taking buyout?

GM's plan is part of an ongoing effort to substantially reduce operating costs. GM lost $38.7 billion last year, and analysts say another successful buyout program is critical to the auto giant returning to profitability in 2008. Independent stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer, formerly of Prudential, told BloggingStocks Friday a potential 20,000-worker buyout is "a decent number" but he wants more.

Continue reading Up to 20k workers seen accepting GM's buyout, but more may be needed

Ford may cut 9,000 more U.S. plant jobs

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) may cut additional 9,000 U.S. factory jobs via its latest buyout offer, sources told Bloomberg News Monday.

The cuts, on top of 33,600 union workers who left through buyouts / early retirement in 2006 and 2007, would speed Ford's return to profitability as it would replace them with new workers who would be paid half as much.

Ford's shares gained 5 cents to $6.13 in Monday morning trading on the news.

Necessary cuts

Independent stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer, formerly of Prudential, told BloggingStocks Monday the cuts are part of painful, but necessary changes Ford must make to survive.

"Ford has done a good job in the initial stages of it restructuring, closing useless plants, increasing efficiencies at existing assembly lines, and lowering legacy costs. But the really big savings will come from getting a lower-wage workforce in place," Bauer said. "Because of global competition, auto makers must reduce labor costs by about 30-50%, just to survive. This is another step in that process." Bauer added that he does not have a rating on the company, nor own Ford's shares.

Further, Bauer said he expects the cuts to speed Ford's return to profitability, arguing that if the U.S. recession is mild, or lasting two quarters or less, Ford will earn a profit in 2009. Bauer expects Ford to lose about 15 cents in 2008 and earn about 60 cents in 2009.

GM's re-focus continues: sells mid-size truck unit

General Motors (NYSE: GM) said Thursday it will sell its mid-size truck unit, which built about 40,800 vehicles in 2006, to Navistar International. Financial terms were not disclosed.

GM's shares fell 20 cents to $26.46 in Thursday midday trading.

GM said the agreement constitutes another step in the company's plan to focus on designing, manufacturing and selling cars and light trucks around the world. GM added that the deal would leverage Navistar's strengths in commercial trucks and engines, enhance its economies of scale and lower costs.

Good decision


Analyst C. Leonard Bauer, formerly of Prudential, said he likes the sound of the Navistar deal.

"This will enable GM to allocate more resources on its core: cars and light trucks," Bauer said. "I like the sale to Navistar in that it gets GM out of a space that did not represent a big gainer. GM has seen the future, and for them it's not in manufacturing mid-size trucks."

Continue reading GM's re-focus continues: sells mid-size truck unit

Big Three to idle pickup truck plants in January on soft sales

Big Three automakers General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F) and Chrysler plan to decrease production of full-size pickups - - including curtailing production for all or part of January 2008, due to a slowing economy that's expected to decrease sales, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

Earlier this week General Motors announced it will impose a two-week shutdown at its pickup truck plants in January 2008.

Ford said its truck plants would likely reduce overtime or impose temporary shutdowns in January 2008 as part of its Q1 production cutback.

Chrysler LLC said it will stop production at plants in Warren, Mich., and Fenton, Mo., right before Christmas through all of January 2008.

Continue reading Big Three to idle pickup truck plants in January on soft sales

For GM, a ray of light in the long tunnel

Should Wall Street look past General Motors' (NYSE: GM) Q3 earnings? Probably. The reason is that GM's Q3 results mask significant progress made by the auto giant.

Fortune magazine argues that GM's $39 billion Q3 loss, due mostly to an accounting adjustment, obscures genuine progress and detracts from other metrics that indicate that GM is ahead of Ford (NYSE: F) in the turnaround race.

After citing roughly comparable pre-tax losses and market share losses, Fortune noted GM's comparatively stronger line-up than Ford's, which includes the launched Cadillac CTS and the soon-to-be, much-anticipated, new Chevy Malibu.

The article also contrasted GM's cost cutting progress -- $8 billion in hourly labor costs saved over past five years -- while noting that Ford still needs to re-double cost reduction efforts in advertising, engineering, material and employment costs.

Continue reading For GM, a ray of light in the long tunnel

Will Ford's new engines be a day late, dollar short?

Speaking at the Los Angeles Auto Show, Ford (NYSE: F) CEO Alan Mulally said the automaker is committed to improving miles per gallon efficiency and reducing emissions via implementing technological advances.

And the technological advances Ford's looking to incorporate to help stabilize its market share? Direct fuel injection, smaller-cylinder engines with turbo charges, lighter weight materials, hybrids, and diesels, among others. Moreover, Mulally said Ford's goal will be to increase fuel economy without sacrificing engine performance or auto safety. Ford's shares drifted three cents lower to $7.95 in Thursday afternoon trading.

In general, analysts were encouraged by Ford's presentation, despite the company's lack of a time-table for efficiency improvements or announcement of changes to specific vehicle models, other than a promise to apply diesel fuel and technology to improve the mpg of its popular but fuel-guzzling F-150 pickups.

Continue reading Will Ford's new engines be a day late, dollar short?

What the Big Three can do now to increase mpg

Detroit's Big Three, General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F) and Chrysler have often been criticized for their bureaucracy, slow decision making, and, at times, outright inertia...even when conditions required bold, decisive action.

There's the joke about the five General Motors executives that go on a camping trip in the Great Midwest. Suddenly, they spot a bear 600 feet away and charging toward where they're seated at the camp site.

Each executive has a rifle and is ready to shoot the bear to defend the campers, and the senior executive says: "Allright, Executives, ready, aim, aim, aim, aim, aim, aim, aim, aim, aim..."

Continue reading What the Big Three can do now to increase mpg

Chrysler threatens the UAW

Chrysler (NYSE: DAI) joined Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM) today when it proposed to divest its non-core assets. It is looking at divesting Chrysler Transport, which manages deliveries of supplies to Chrysler plants, and its Mopar unit, which makes high-performance and specialty auto parts, people familiar with the matter told the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).

Obviously, the United Auto Workers oppose the divestitures. It is unclear if the divestiture of the assets will be part of the final agreement between the UAW and the newly independent Chrysler.

In addition to the potential non-core asset sales, the company already has a restructuring plan that calls for 13,000 jobs cuts and a return to profitability next year.

The UAW's talks with Chrysler have also revolved around the auto maker receiving a concession on health care costs, similar to what Ford and GM received back in 2005. Chrysler also wants to outsource non-core employees to a third party, similar to the agreements Ford currently has with UAW locals at individual plants.

The UAW now faces a battle at each of the three major Detroit automakers. The contract between the UAW and Chrysler expires on September 14.

Surprise! Americans like foreign cars more than their own

Detroit lost control of its own market last month, as domestic market share fell below 50 percent for the first time in history, and they have no one to blame but themselves. According to USA Today, Paul Ballew, executive director of market and industry analysis at General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) said: "We are not going to cede market share to the competition." What Ballew failed to admit was the fact that they already have, and it's been going on for years.

Foreign automakers have seized the opportunity to take market share during the summer by offering tons of rebates, with Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) offering a record number of incentives, according to Edmunds.com. Despite the push, overall auto sales last month were down 12.3 percent compared to July 2006. Excluding Nissan Motor Co., Ltd.(NASDAQ: NSANY), BMW and Kia, every major automaker posted a decline in U.S. sales.

Industry experts cited months of higher-than-average gas prices, as well as the problems in the housing market, for soft sales. "Experts" failed to mention that most foreign cars provide tons of incentives, better miles per gallon and have a better reputation than American cars.

With the weakness in the overall industry last month, automakers could start to develop some creative and aggressive marketing ploys, Jesse Toprak, an analyst at Edmunds.com, told USA Today. The real question is will U.S. companies ever realize they need to develop autos that have better mileage, and steer away from building gigantic gas guzzling SUVs? With House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Massachusetts Rep. Ed Markey abandoning their push (subscription required) for an increase in fuel-economy standards, Detroit lacks any reason to even consider it.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-5.8612,986.80
NASDAQ-4.882,528.85
S&P 500+1.781,425.35

Last updated: May 17, 2008: 09:20 AM

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