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Fewer job cuts in September, is relief coming?

Layoff announcements hit their lowest level since March 2008 last month, signaling market stabilization. Global outplacement consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. put the number of cuts at 66,404 for September, a 13% decline from July's 76,456. Year-over-year, the number of layoffs announced is down 30%, and September was the fourth month in a row in which job cuts fell relative to the same month a year earlier.

Planned job cuts reached 240,233 for the third quarter of 2009, according to Challenger, its lowest level since the first quarter of 2008, when there were 200,656 planned layoffs. For the third quarter of this year, job cuts fell 24.5% from the previous quarter's 318,165, and it's off 16.3% from 287,142 in the third quarter of 2009. At the beginning of 2009, the planned layoff rate reached a seven-year high of 578,510. Since then, the planned layoff rate fell 58.5%.

Continue reading Fewer job cuts in September, is relief coming?

VC for cleantech surges to $1.2bn in Q2

The venture capital (VC) industry demonstrated its commitment to the clean technology space in the second quarter of 2009, pumping $1.2 billion into the sector, according to a report by GTM Research. VC investments in cleantech are up 43.5% from the first quarter of the year, when $836 was put into play in the cleantech space.

The number of transactions increased, as well. In the first quarter, 59 deals were completed, and deal-flow surged 44% to 85 in the quarter just finished. Average deal size remained fairly consistent: $14.2 million for the first quarter and $14.1 for the second.

Continue reading VC for cleantech surges to $1.2bn in Q2

House approves $25 billion for automakers

With little fanfare -- and much less reasoned debate -- the House of Representatives approved $25 billion in artificially low interest, taxpayer-funded loans for the U.S. auto industry. The Senate and President are expected to provide their approval in the next few days, but the details on how loans would be doled out will not be decided until after the November elections.

Given the $700 billion gift to bankers currently being pushed through Congress, it would be hard for Washington to take a principled stance against an auto industry bailout. But the industry had been hoping that the terms and conditions of the loans would be decided before the election, when both parties are looking to win votes from industry workers in battleground states like Ohio and Michigan. Analysts say that Congress may be feeling less generous after the elections.

With bailouts for the auto and banking industries underway, now would be a good time to deliver the elegy for capitalism and free markets. We have now transitioned into a hybrid model -- privatized reward and socialized risk -- where companies can earn billions and pay out bonuses when times are good, and count on handouts when the going gets tough.

Buying a car in China now easier

In a recent survey jointly conducted by The British Council and a China daily, 84% of young Chinese want to purchase a car (despite the fact that 80% of them are concerned with global warning).

General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) hopes to capitalize on that 84%. Shanghai General Motors' joint venture with Shanghai Automotive have announced the creation of interest-free car loans, as they fight for additional market share in the competitive Chinese market. In the first six months of 2007, General Motor brands have lagged in China behind the sales increases for passenger vehicles. Sales for Shanghai GM were up 12%, while overall car sales in China climbed 26%.

The "Buick Elite Wealth-Management Program," as its called, will try to lure buyers into financing in a nation where many prefer to buy cars with cash. GM officials said they were unaware of the initiative before it was announced to the Chinese media, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Global investment conditions: Reaping what you sow

Possibly more than ever before, smart stock investing requires a clear and wide forward view. If you don't have an undeniable road map for where your chosen companies are headed, you must dig deeper and you need to do it right now. Specifically, if the companies that you have chosen to invest in don't have a declared international focus, you must be certain of why that is and if it's appropriate.

Barring some unforeseen worldwide economic crash, which is in fact extremely possible, the fact sheet on investing these days is headed with the word global. If your portfolio is not thoroughly salted with companies that do business on a worldwide scale, then your portfolio is scheduled to wither and wane over the next three to five years. Global diversity is essential right now, and will continue to be a requirement from here on out.

It's my opinion that one of the most important criteria these days for successful portfolio building is to create a portfolio footprint that covers at least three different countries. If you have the funds to spread out and you're a fan of diversity, just for safety I suggest that you base your portfolio across five to seven countries. I would suggest the following research focuses as a sample to get your global thinking started.

Consider China for heavy manufacturing, machinery, electronics manufacturing, and a range of consumer goods. I'd be shy of putting any money over there at the moment, however, because to me their stock market is currently overinflated in value.

Continue reading Global investment conditions: Reaping what you sow

Analyst initiations 4-04-07: F, GM, JPM and TWC initiated today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The automotive sector was today's most noteworthy initiation:
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Merriman initiated shares of Progressive Gaming International Corp (NASDAQ: PGIC) with a Buy rating, as the firm believes it is on the cusp of gaining meaningful market share of casino floors through its technologies and now is the time to get involved in shares.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

BMW begins race to record finish

While American auto behemoth General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM) achieved its first quarter of profitability in awhile earlier this week, BMW AG is racing toward breaking the sales records [subscription required] it set in 2006. All three of the company's core brands -- BMW, Mini, and Rolls-Royce -- are expected show sales growth. The revenue growth should reach the bottom line in the form of record earnings.

However, there may be trouble on the horizon in the form of increased regulation due to concerns about global warming, as governments around the world consider new limits on C02 emissions. In the United States, the auto industry and the United Auto Workers union are both lobbying to limit changes in the law.

While it may be environmentally sound, if consumers aren't willing to pay up for increased fuel economy, the car companies will have to shell out big-time to meet new standards. BMW would probably survive, but changes in the law could send the Detroit automakers into a death spiral.

International auto stocks expected to do well

David Herro, of Harris Associates and long-time international investor, is upbeat about auto stocks. Not U.S. auto stocks but international auto stocks, according to this weekend's Barron's interview (subscxription required).

While Toyota (NYSE: TM) has been a great performer, other multinational auto stocks have not performed as strongly but are poised to do well. Herro likes DaimlerChrysler (NYSE: DCX), BMW (which trades in Germany under the symbol BMW) and Honda (NYSE: HMC). Daimler is about 50% undervalued, BMW about 45% and Honda 20%, according to Herro.

Global economic expansion is the reason cited for Herro liking auto companies that have strong franchise names. Herro said some three-fifths of the world's population is now entering the global economy.

Mercedes margins have increased from 1%-to-2% range to 7%, a huge improvement for an auto company. Daimler is also doing better on the commercial side of the business.

BMW's case is that it earns double-digit returns on capital and grows units around 6% per year--that is a big number for the auto industry.

Herro referred to Honda as a BMW for the mass market, with management focused on profitability and return on investment.

Investing in large auto companies does not sound exciting, but Herro has a great track record at picking stocks. Might as well go along for the ride.

General Motors, Chrysler talks heat up

General Motors Co. (NYSE:GM) and DaimlerChrysler AG's (NYSE:DCX) are following a predictable script in how they leak information about their discussions regarding the possible sale of Chrysler.

First, they put out a trial balloon to a trade publication that Wall Street respects such as Automotive News. When the financial press screams at the company for not leaking to them (I've had such conversations many times), the company responds by saying through an anonymous source or sources that the discussions are "preliminary" and could fail.

First, they put out a trial balloon to a trade publication that Wall Street respects such as Automotive News. When the financial press screams at the company for not leaking to them (I've had such conversations many times), the company responds by saying through an anonymous source or sources that the discussions are "preliminary" and could fail.

First, they put out a trial balloon to a trade publication that Wall Street respects such as Automotive News. When the financial press screams at the company for not leaking to them (I've had such conversations many times), the company responds by saying through an anonymous source or sources that the discussions are "preliminary" and could fail.

That's the phase we're in now Reuters, The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) and Bloomberg News all have confirmed that the talks are occurring. The fact that Reuters and the Journal both have stories appearing today isn't surprising since the stock market is closed for President's Day. The only reaction to the news will be seen in Europe, where Daimler's shares are traded.

For business journalists, there is no more difficult story to break than a major merger and acquisition. The pressure is enormous from editors. Bankers, companies and their public relations consultants know this and use their position to influence the coverage of deals. There's almost as much wheeling and dealing going on with the media as with the companies involved in the transactions.

Continue reading General Motors, Chrysler talks heat up

Home Depot, GM and McDonalds... Oh Santa, Yahoo!

Dear Santa,

I made the mistake of telling my lovely wife that she could stand a turn on the treadmill. I fear I have slipped down a couple notches on her "to buy for" list. It would appear that this Christmas you will be my only hope of getting something good. I do have some good news though, I salvaged the conjugal benefit package by admitting that I could stand doing a couple treadmill miles of my own. Yes, the woman is as forgiving as she is beautiful. (That should be good for a brownie point or two!)

In any case, Santa, I understand that you have an option available this year whereby we can have up to 10,000 investment shares of our choosing. If it's not too late to put in my request, I'd like to ask for a few. I promise that if you bring them to me I'll leave some cookies by the door... or possibly some pork chops and sauerkraut. Here's what I'll be looking for in my stocking: (pun intended)

Continue reading Home Depot, GM and McDonalds... Oh Santa, Yahoo!

Ford hopes new bonds are a bridge to the future, not merely debt

Less than 16 hours after Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) announced that it intends to sell $3 billion in senior, convertible debt, shares of the venerable U.S. automaker fell 3% or about 30 cents to $7.66 by mid Tuesday afternoon. Moreover, Ford's shares are down about 19% in four weeks. Is Wall Street losing faith in Ford's turnaround effort? Hardly.

Adding debt that's convertible to stock does present a potential scenario of shareholder dilution -- if Ford ultimately converts some or all of the $3 billion in notes and does not pay-off the entire amount. From a corporate operations standpoint, debt in and of itself is not a concern, so long as it used for appropriate purposes, and the debt can be serviced.

In this case Ford is borrowing to fund buy-out packages for employees and also to pay for plant closures, among other tasks. Ford CEO Alan Mulally is stewarding a restructuring plan that will include cutting 40,000 jobs in North America, re-tooling assembly line processes for the new century, and also introducing new vehicle designs, particularly cars. To be sure, it is an enormous task, but if CEO Mulally can produce two or three must-have, next-generation vehicle designs that can best models made by its foreign competitors, Ford may very well be in a position up ahead to pay that debt off early.

Investment Analysis: How should the typical investor play Ford? Caution: Ford is not for conservative investors. If your portfolio can tolerate moderate risk, consider buying shares of Ford at this level. If you're concerned about the recent sell-off, postpone your purchase for about one month: if Ford is still above $6.50 in one month, buy it then.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+203.5210,226.94
NASDAQ0.002,154.06
S&P 5000.001,093.08

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 09:34 AM

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