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Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AMGN, AVY, C, FMCN, THC ...

Analyst upgrades:

  • Baird upgraded Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC) to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $6 from $5 based on cost trends, valuation, and expectations the company can beat expectations over the next six months.
  • Oppenheimer upgraded E-House (NYSE: EJ) to Outperform from Perform following the company's better-than-expected Q2 results. The firm has a price target of $27 on shares.
  • JPMorgan upgraded Avery Dennison (NYSE: AVY) to Overweight from Neutral and has a $33 target on the stock. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade following the recent underperformance and expects the company's margins to expand as demand rebounds.
  • Citigroup (NYSE: C) was upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA/Merrill.
  • Taubman Centers (NYSE: TCO) was upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman.
  • First Niagara (NASDAQ: FNFG) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney Montgomery.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AMGN, AVY, C, FMCN, THC ...

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: BT, NVS, NOK, TXI, MTB ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Canaccord upgraded Imperial Oil (NYSE: IMO) to Buy from Speculative Buy following an increase in crude oil forecast.
  • BT Group (NYSE: BT) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein.
  • Novartis (NYSE: NVS) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
  • CommVault (NASDAQ: CVLT) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
  • AvalonBay (NYSE: AVB) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Sandler O'Neill.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: BT, NVS, NOK, TXI, MTB ...

AvalonBay (AVB): REIT rental returns

"With occupancy rates around 95%, apartment REITs appear to be the one bright spot in the REIT sector," says Asif Suria in The SINLetter; he looks at AvalonBay Communities (NYSE: AVB).

"The company generates nearly half its net operating income from the NY/NJ metro area and New England. California represents an additional 32% of net operating income.

"With a management team that is well respected and leverage that is the lowest of any apartment REIT, AvalonBay has traded at a premium over the last few years and the stock was trading at nearly $150 when I first came across the company in early 2007.

"I continued watching the company over the last two years looking for an opportunity to start a position. With a decline of over 70% from its 2007 high and a yield of 8.1%, this apartment REIT is finally at a level that not only offers a fat yield but also the potential of price appreciation.

Continue reading AvalonBay (AVB): REIT rental returns

Analyst calls: DVN, RSG, ECA, KGC, AIV, DB, DLTR, CVS, PETM, S, MU ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Jefferies upgraded shares of Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) to Buy from Hold on expectations that Haynesville results could be a catalyst in 2009. The firm raised their target to $100 from $94.
  • Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Republic Services (NYSE: RSG) to Outperform from market Perform following the completed merger with Allied Waste (NYSE: AW).
  • KeyBanc upgraded NorthWestern (NYSE: NWE) to Buy from HOld as they expect the Montana commission to grant the company's pending request for an accounting order to smooth pension expenses over five years.
  • EnCana (NYSE: ECA) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
  • Goldman also upgraded Questar (NYSE: STR) to Buy from Neutral.
  • Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC) was raised to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Analyst downgrades:

Continue reading Analyst calls: DVN, RSG, ECA, KGC, AIV, DB, DLTR, CVS, PETM, S, MU ...

Options Update: REIT volatility elevated on economic pressures; AMB, ESS, AVB

AMB Property (NYSE: AMB), a global developer and owner of industrial real estate, closed at $13.25 Wednesday. Goldman Sachs says: "We remain cautious on REITS." AMB December option implied volatility of 107 is above its 8-week average of 66 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Essex Property Trust (NYSE: ESS), a REIT with the majority of real estate consisting of apartment communities, closed at $74.33 Wednesday. ESS December option implied volatility of 81 is above its 26-week average of 51 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

AvalonBay (NYSE: AVB), an owner or indirect owner of 178 apartment communities containing 50,370 apartment homes, closed at $55.03 Wednesday. AVB December option implied volatility of 83 is above its 26-week average of 54 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: ANF, WFMI, MIC, SNY, BMY, PFE, JNJ ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Jefferies upgraded shares of Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) to Hold from Underperform on valuation. The stock has gone down 40% since they initiated coverage on September 19. The firm maintains a $29 target.
  • Citigroup upgraded EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG), Quicksilver (NYSE: KWK) and Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN) to Buy from Hold on their belief U.S. natural gas-focused E&P companies have near-term upside.
  • Barclays upgraded Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) to Equal Weight from Underweight citing the $425M private equity investment, which reduces liquidity risk, and its reduced cost structure.
  • Brandywine Realty (NYSE: BDN) and AvalonBay (NYSE: AVB) were upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Merrill Lynch.
  • tw telecom (NASDAQ: TWTC) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.
  • AmeriCredit (NYSE: ACF) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Friedman Billings.
Analyst downgrades:
  • Jefferies downgraded Macquarie Infrastructure (NYSE: MIC) to Hold from Buy to reflect the company's sensitivity to the economic slowdown and funding risk. The firm lowered their target to $9 from $40 after the company announced a dividend reduction.
  • Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) was cut to Sell from Neutral at UBS due to the company's exposure to potential generic competition and a lack of new products.
  • Friedman Billings downgraded Cleveland Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) to Market Perform from Outperform and lowered their target to $42 from $50 to reflect the risk of further production cuts.
  • Credit Suisse lowered Acme Packet (NASDAQ: APKT) to Neutral from Outperform.
  • Delta Petroleum (NASDAQ: DPTR) was downgraded at Deutsche Bank to Sell from Hold.
  • Siemens (NYSE: SI) was downgraded to Sell from Buy at UBS.
Analyst initiations:
  • Goldman initiated Bristol-Myers (NYSE: BMY) with a Buy rating and $27 target as they believe it is making progress in becoming a mid-sized specialty biopharmaceutical company. The firm expects the company to be active in M&A and to spin-off or divest its slow-growth or fast-growing assets, such as virology and oncology.
  • Goldman believes Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) needs a "radical transformation" and restructuring that includes a break up, spin and merger in order to outperform over the next several years. Shares were assumed with a Sell rating and $19 target.
  • Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) was initiated with a Neutral rating and $65 target at Banc of America. The firm prefers to be on the sidelines given uncertainties surrounding 2009 revenue growth and the potential for negative rhetoric out of Washington on pharma costs.
  • Acorda (NASDAQ: ACOR) was started at RBC Capital with an Outperform rating and $30 target.
  • Cavium Networks (NASDAQ: CAVM) and NetLogic (NASDAQ: NETL) were initiated with Neutral ratings at Cowen.
  • Edwards Lifesciences (NYSE: EW) was assumed with a Buy rating and $61 target at Piper Jaffray.

Seize the day with AvalonBay

A real estate play? In this market? Sure, if you can identify one with the right financial metrics. AvalonBay Communities is one.

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (NYSE: AVB) is a real estate investment trust specializing in the ownership of multi-family apartment communities. AvalonBay owns about 150 apartment complexes containing more than 43,000 apartments in 10 states and Washington, DC. Most are branded under the Avalon name.

Analysts like the fact that AvalonBay is likely to outperform a majority of its sector peers. Analysts see AVB's rents increasing 3-5% in 2008, after a 5.5% average increase in 2007.

Further, performance in the relatively strong Northern California and Pacific Northwest markets is expected to offset poor operating conditions in Boston and Washington, D.C.

Continue reading Seize the day with AvalonBay

Avalon Bay (AVB): More renters boost apartment REIT

"A decline in home ownership is good for companies who have apartments to rent," notes The Dave Dyer Newsletter. To benefit from this trend, he looks at Avalon Bay (NYSE: AVB)." Here is his review.

"After a 10 year period of consistent increases from 1995 to 2005, the trend toward increasing home ownership has reversed and is now clearly in decline. The subprime problems and tighter credit policies will only serve to increase the decline.

"One of the easiest ways to invest in this trend is to buy shares in a REIT that owns apartment properties. Avalon Bay (NYSE: AVB.) is a REIT that manages high quality apartment communities in the high barrier-to-entry markets like California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

"In some cases, they develop their own properties; in others, they buy and remodel existing apartment complexes. They currently own 182 properties with about 52,000 apartments in total. AVB has 19 more properties under constructions and development rights for another 52.

Continue reading Avalon Bay (AVB): More renters boost apartment REIT

A REIT that was thrown out with the bathwater

It's no secret that the entire real estate market in the U.S. is suffering. For investors owning REITs, we are in the midst of a year of real pain. For long-term investors, some opportunities have arisen in the REIT space.


With people unable to get mortgages, the rental market has proven to be quite strong. Either from people who sold or forfeited their homes, to people who won't qualify for a mortgage, to higher end buyers who believe prices will continue to fall -- everyone still needs living accommodations. That's why I think the market has it wrong with some of the REIT sectors.

REITs dealing with rental markets should be strong, but, alas, their stock has gotten slammed just as bad as everyone else's. It's a classic case of throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

My top pick in this sector is AvalonBay Communities (NYSE: AVB). AvalonBay develops, acquires, refurbishes, leases, and manages apartment complexes. The stock is down over 40% over the last year and currently sports a nice dividend yield of 3.9%. I think long-term investors will be richly rewarded on this stock.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. Disclosure: Writer has no position long or short in any stock mentioned as of 1/14/08.

Analyst downgrades: REITs, BOBJ, ALL and PGR

MOST NOTEWORTHY: REITs, Business Objects, Allstate Corp and P&C Insurance were today's noteworthy downgrades:
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Option update 6-13-07: DeVry, AvalonBay

DeVry Inc. (NYSE: DV) -- implied volatility suggests Flat risk as DV rallies to 65 month high. DV, operates in three segments: DeVry University, Professional and Training, and Medical and Healthcare. DV is recently up $2.16 to $35.30. First Analysis Securities upgraded DVY to Overweight on "compelling margin improvement story." DV over all option implied volatility of 33 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

AvalonBay Communities Inc. (NYSE: AVB) -- puts bid up on unconfirmed takeover chatter. AVB is recently up $6.69 to $127. AVB is a real estate investment trust (REIT). AVB engages in the development, redevelopment, acquisition, ownership and operation of multifamily communities. AVB has a market cap of $9.6 billion. AVB 26-week average option implied volatility is 25. AVB July call option implied volatility is at 23, puts are at 31 according to Track Data suggesting puts are priced for downside risk.

Option volume leaders today are: Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM), General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold, Inc. (NYSE: FCX).

Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Analyst upgrades 5-31-07: Yahoo! upgraded to Overweight

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Yahoo! (YHOO), Genzyme (GENZ) and Dress Barn (DBRN) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan as the firm believes the company has addressed weakness in display advertising with recent partnership announcements and the acquisition of Right Media. Additionally, the firm still sees upside to Panama.
  • Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs, citing valuation and a favorable risk/reward.
  • Merriman upgraded shares of Dress Barn (NASDAQ: DBRN) to Buy from Neutral to reflect the improved sales trends in May and sees the stock trading at the high end of its peer group average or in a range of $25.50-$27.00.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Deutsche Telekom (NYSE: DT) was upgraded to Buy from Sell at Societe Generale, which also added shares to its Premium List.
  • Lehman Brothers upgraded AvalonBay Communities (NYSE: AVB) to Equal Weight from Underweight, as the firm views AVB as a close comp to Archstone-Smith Trust (NYSE: ASN). Lehman also upgraded Post Properties (NYSE: PPS) to Equal Weight from Underweight, citing industry M&A activity, and China Life Insurance (NYSE: LFC) to Buy from Neutral, citing valuation.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of BG Group plc (NYSE: BRG) to Buy from Hold to reflect expected growth in the company's liquefied natural gas business.
  • Red Hat Inc. (NYSE: RHT) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W Baird, which expects improved performance at JBoss and a positive mix shift in the core O/S business following the release of RHEL 5.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst upgrades 5-30-07: Coca-Cola upgraded to Buy

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Coca-Cola (KO), Fiserv, Inc (FISV) and several real estate companies were today's noteworthy upgrades:
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • RBC Capital upgraded Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ: TXRH) to Outperform from Sector Perform, citing valuation and improved EPS outlook.
  • Kenexa Corp (NASDAQ: KNXA) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse, citing valuation and reduced risk from the BrassRing acquisition.
  • Goldman Sachs added Foster Wheeler (NASDAQ: FWLT) added to its Conviction Buy List, citing valuation and leverage to energy infrastructure build and power.
  • Goldman also added ProLogis (NYSE: PLD) to its Conviction Buy list, citing upside to FFO guidance, favorable domestic and international demand and above-average development margins.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst upgrades 5-23-07: COP, FRX, SPLS and SUNW

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Staples, Inc (SPLS), Sun Microsystems, Inc (SUNW), Forest Laboratories, Inc (FRX), AvalonBay Communities (AVB) and ConocoPhillips (COP) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Soleil upgraded shares of Staples, Inc (NASDAQ: SPLS) to Buy from Hold following the in-line Q1 results, as the firm believes management's initiatives will benefit the company for the remainder of the year.
  • Matrix upgraded Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: SUNW) to Hold from Sell based on improved profitability and margins due to cost cuts.
  • First Albany upgraded Forest Laboratories (NYSE: FRX) to Strong Buy from Neutral following positive preliminary results for Milnacipran in Fibromyalgia.
  • Bernstein upgraded shares of ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) to Outperform from Market Perform...
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Piper Jaffray upgraded Medtronic, Inc (NYSE: MDT) to Outperform from Market Perform.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+203.5210,226.94
NASDAQ+41.622,154.06
S&P 500+23.781,093.08

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 07:01 AM

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