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Analyst calls: HOTT, GYMB, DRL, ID, AWC, AMED, PAY, DCM, GPRO, BSX

Analyst upgrades:
  • Societe General upgraded BASF AG (OTC: BASFY) to Buy from Hold. The firm believes the bad news is out and that BASF has a strong market position.
  • Pali Capital upgraded Hot Topic (NASDAQ: HOTT) to Buy from Neutral based on the ongoing merchandise catalyst, the opportunity to reclaim the mainstream kid and closing underperforming stores, which create the most favorable conditions in the last 5+ years.
  • Stanford upgraded L-1 Identity (NYSE: ID) to Buy from Hold on valuation, and the firm sees little risk to the company from the Obama Administration.
  • Gymboree (NASDAQ: GYMB) and Windstream (WIN) were raised to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
  • Doral Financial (NYSE: DRL) was upgraded at B. Riley to Buy from Neutral.
  • Alumina (NYSE: AWC) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
Analyst downgrades:
  • Credit Suisse downgraded Targanta (NASDAQ: TARG) to Underperform from Outperform following the FDA Panel's rejection of Oritavancin.
  • Citigroup downgraded BASF AG (OTC: BASFY) to Sell from Hold and sees no reason to own the stock following the company's profit warning. Shares were also downgraded at WestLB to Hold from Add.
  • Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Amedisys (NASDAQ: AMED) to Hold from Buy and lowered its target to $53 from $75 on concerns over the company's deteriorating A/R aging trends.
  • VeriFone Holdings (NYSE: PAY) and Navios Maritime (NYSE: NMM) were lowered to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.
  • NTT DoCoMo (NYSE: DCM) was downgraded at Citigroup to Hold from Buy.
Analyst initiations:
  • Needham expects shares of Cepheid (NASDAQ: CPHD) to be driven by continued market penetration in the hospital acquired infection market, new test introductions, GeneXpert Infinity sales, and molecular diagnostics growth from sales outside of traditional molecular testing areas. Shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $21 target.
  • Needham also initiated Gen-Probe (NASDAQ: GPRO) with a Hold rating and expects market share gains for the company when PANTHER is approved in 2010/2011.
  • William Blair believes Harbin Electric (NASDAQ: HRBN) is an "interesting" opportunity for exposure to rapid growth in infrastructure within the People's Republic of China. The firm started shares with a Market Perform rating.
  • Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX) was initiated with a Buy rating and $11 target at UBS.
  • NutriSystem (NASDAQ: NTRI) was initiated with a Neutral rating at Janney Montgomery.
  • Ener1 (NYSE: HEV) was assumed at JMP Securities with an Outperform rating and $9 target.

Analyst calls: SCRX, GOOG, LOW, DF, GILD, EK, SOLR, XRX ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • RBC Capital upgraded Sciele Pharma (NASDAQ: SCRX) to Sector Perform from Underperform following the acquisition by Shionogi.
  • Merrill believes Alcoa (NYSE: AA) may pursue an acquisition of Alumina Ltd (NYSE: AWC) following recent share weakness. Shares of Alumina were upgraded to Buy from Underperform.
  • Stanford upgraded shares of Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to Buy from Hold after channel checks indicated U.S. search market trends have stabilized as they believe GOOG's market share gains are broadening, Q3 expectations are modest and the valuation is near lows. The firm has a $550 target on the stock.
  • Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
Analyst downgrades:
  • WestLB downgraded shares of Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) to Reduce from Hold as they believe the company's Q3 earnings could miss expectations.
  • Lehman downgraded Intersil (NASDAQ: ISIL) to Equal Weight from Overweight based PC exposure and market share loss in notebook power. The company's target was lowered to $24 from $29.
  • Dean Foods (NYSE: DF) was lowered to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
  • Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America.
  • JP Morgan lowered Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS) to Underperform from Sector Perform.
Analyst initiations:
  • Citigroup initiated Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK) with a Sell rating and $13 target. The firm believes 2008 consensus estimates and guidance are too high given the company's headwinds.
  • GT Solar (NASDAQ: SOLR) was assumed with a Neutral rating and $16 target at Banc of America. The firm believes the risk/reward is balanced at current levels with no significant new polysilicon opportunity. Shares were also initiated at Thomas Weisel with an Overweight rating and $18 target and at UBS with a Buy rating and $19 target.
  • Citigroup initiated Xerox (NYSE: XRX) with a Buy rating and $20 target and Electronics for Imaging (NASDAQ: EFII) with a Hold rating and $18 target.

Mining trio: Iron ore, aluminum and copper

"There's no doubt about it: vital resources are in a bull market of gigantic proportions," note Yiannis Mostrous and Roger Conrad.

"The co-editors of Vital Resource Investor caution that "no market moves in a straight line, and in commodities, the action is often extremely violent." However, for long-term investors, they offer some favorites in iron ore, aluminum and copper.

"All commodity bull markets are ultimately gored by demand destruction, alternatives and new supply. But it will almost certainly be years before that happens to this one. And that means plenty of money will be made along the way.

"We're still extremely bullish on iron ore as the market remains in deficit and prices continue to rise. Chinese domestic supply has been falling and, if this continues, imports will make up the difference, thereby helping the miners.

"China consumes 51% of the world's iron supply. Portfolio holding Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO), the world's largest iron ore producer, will benefit from the shortage in iron ore supply.

"We favor aluminum in the industrial metals sector. We've been advocating aluminum for some time, and the market's finally going our way. Aluminum prices have been impacted by lack of available power in China and South Africa and higher alumina and bauxite prices.

Continue reading Mining trio: Iron ore, aluminum and copper

Best Stocks for 2008: Alumina (AWC) shines from Chinese demand

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"Aluminum is one of our favorite commodities for 2008 and the best leveraged play on aluminum is Australia-based Alumina (NYSE: AWC)," explain co-editors Roger Conrad and Yiannis Mostrous in Vital Resource Investor.

"The company, our top conservative pick for 2008, owns 40% of Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals, which, in turn, holds the world's largest, low-cost portfolio of quality bauxite and alumina assets.

"Having the world's largest integrated bauxite mining and alumina refining system (it provides approximately 13% of the world's alumina supply) in one place is the company's main attraction.

"As energy, raw materials and freight costs continue to increase, Alumina's setup makes its operations increasingly competitive and low cost versus those of rivals.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Alumina (AWC) shines from Chinese demand

Top resource ideas: 'Vital' advice on Alumina (AWC)

This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".

"We've added a high potential acquisition play to our model portfolio, Alumina Ltd. (NYSE: AWC)," note Elliott Gue and Yiannis Mostrous in their Vital Resource Investor.

The advisors explain, "The company is a leveraged bet on the recovery of aluminum prices in the next few quarters as China rationalizes output and exports by taking its high cost, heavily subsidized producers out of the game. Its small size and 40% stake in the world's largest low-cost portfolio of quality bauxite and alumina assets is a tempting target.

"Having the world's largest integrated bauxite mining and alumina refining system (it provides approximately 13% of the world's alumina supply) in one place is the company's main attraction. As energy, raw materials, and freight costs continue to increase, Alumina's setup enables its operations to be extremely efficient and low cost.

"The company is at a sweet spot because China's aluminum demand has been so strong that it's taken the industry by surprise. Although a large number of experts were at the start of the year forecasting 14% growth of China's aluminum demand for 2007, the latest projections (as per Alcoa's calculations) are pointing toward 35% growth.

"Further, China has a long way to go before it reaches the levels of consumption that more mature economies have achieved. And although it won't happen in one go, it will be a long and steady process. The bottom line: To meet this demand as well as demand from other countries like rapidly urbanizing rural India, aluminum production will have to grow much more rapidly than at any time in history."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com website features the latest investment commentary and favorite stock picks of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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Last updated: December 05, 2008: 01:10 AM

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