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Analyst downgrades: Jabil Circuit, Aircastle, Genesis Lease, P.F. Chang's

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Jabil Circuit, Aircastle, Genesis Lease and P.F. Chang's were today's noteworthy downgrades:

  • JP Morgan downgraded shares of Jabil Circuit (NYSE: JBL) to Underweight from Overweight following the lower-than-expected guidance, as they believe the company is seeing end market weakness in most of its markets. Shares were also downgraded at Thomas Weisel to Market Weight from Overweight and at Credit Suisse to Neutral from Outperform following the disappointing guidance.
  • JP Morgan also downgraded shares of Aircastle (NYSE: AYR) and Genesis Lease (GLS) to Neutral from Overweight to reflect the continued credit and equity market challenges faced by both companies.
  • Friedman Billings downgraded shares of P.F. Chang's (NASDAQ: PFCB) to Underperform from Market Perform as they believe 2008 will be a challenging year for all casual dining restaurant companies and that the valuation is expensive at current levels.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

IPO & secondary preview -- Week of Oct. 1, 2007

Wall Street's equity market offers a full schedule this week, with 8 IPOs and 5 Secondaries on the docket.

Those deals tentatively scheduled to price include:

IPOs:

Possible

  • Merrion Pharmaceuticals (MERR), a 4M-share IPO for this pharmaceuticals company. Punk Zeigel is the lead manager. Filing range: $10.00-$12.00.

Early Week

  • Liberty Acquisition (LIA), an 86.25M-share IPO for this reorganization services company. Citigoup is the lead manager.

Continue reading IPO & secondary preview -- Week of Oct. 1, 2007

Cramer on BloggingStocks: The cost of the redemption panic

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer highlights the latest example of how people were scared out of the market at exactly the wrong time so you won't get spooked next time.

When Sowood and the Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) (Cramer's Take) leveraged investment funds blew up this summer we were supposed to get ready for a wave of redemptions that would buckle the market.

"Just wait until October" became a familiar refrain as hedge funds were expected to get shelled, causing tons of stocks not to trade the way they should as unnatural margined selling took its toll.

But here we are in the first week of October and spreads for arbitrage, a pure tell for fund redemptions, are tightening, not loosening. The averages are at or are close to hitting new highs and we haven't heard of any funds about to go belly-up. The only ones that would fail, I believe, would be short funds.

I bring up this sore but positive topic because when things were really bad at the end of August yet redemptions hadn't overwhelmed the market, we figured it might just be a September phenomenon. Making things a little more likely, too, were the funds that were exposed to all of these exotic instruments based on mortgages.

So far it looks like the huge hedge fund redemptions and failures aren't going to happen, perhaps courtesy of the Fed's rate cuts that now do seem to have bailed out a lot of managers who have made wrong moves. That's the "moral hazard" that everyone was fretting about so much before the Fed acted.

But I think that instead, you should let this memory of "redemption worry" be a reminder of the phantoms that freak people out and make them leave the market at what now represents 1,000 points on the Dow.

Oddly, there are still some stocks that seem pressured down more by fear than by fundamentals. Genesis Lease (NYSE: GLS) (Cramer's Take) and Aircastle (NYSE: AYR) (Cramer's Take) both have terrific yields, a function of the decline in the stocks of aircraft lessors. Some of these are owned from hedge funds believed to be struggling. The other is Enterprise Product Partners (NYSE: EPD) (Cramer's Take), also with a good yield, that is in the energy transport business.

Neither industry is hurting but the stocks had some really weak hedge fund hands as shareholders.

These could be payoffs from the distressed period and redemption fears that drove them down.

RELATED LINKS: Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Citigroup.

Analyst initiations 9-7-07: Exchange sector, PGNX, TEL and PMC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The exchange sector, Progenics Pharma, Tyco Electronics and PharMerica were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Keefe Bruyette initiated coverage on Exchange Sector: The firm started shares of CME Group Inc (NYSE: CME), NYMEX Holdings Inc (NYSE: NMX) and NYSE Euronext Inc (NYSE: NYX) with Outperform ratings and a $669 target, $147 target and $90 target, respectively. The firm also started shares of Investment Technology Group (NYSE: ITG), Nasdaq Stock Market Inc (NASDAQ: NDAQ) and IntercontinentalExchange Inc (NYSE: ICE) with Underperform ratings and a $47 target, $36 target and $158 target, respectively, and shares of Knight Capital Group (NASDAQ: NITE) with an Underperform rating and $13 target.
  • Progenics Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: PGNX) was added to Friedman Billings' Top Picks list and its Outperform rating was maintained. The firm has a high degree of confidence in the success of the MNTX Ph III studies in post-operative ilieus, as well as the FDA approval of the subcutaneous injection in terminally ill patients with opiod-induced constipation around the 1/31/07 PDUFA date.
  • RBC believes margin expansion will drive long-term appreciation in Tyco Electronics Ltd (NYSE: TEL) and started shares with an Outperform rating and $41 target.
  • PharMerica Corporation (NYSE: PMC) was initiated with an Underperform rating at Bear Stearns. The firm believes PMC will be pressured by customer losses and generic reimbursement cuts and sees shares trading in $12-$13 range.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Seven ways to play the airline sector

"There are several ways to play the airline industry without buying the airlines themselves." explains Benjamin Shepard, a research editor for Personal Finance. Here, he looks seven stocks that are poised to profit as the sector "gets its wings again."

Hexcel Corp. (NYSE: HXL), he notes, is the largest producer of woven carbon-fiber sheets, which are extremely important for both Boeing's new 787 Dreamliner, as well as for the new Airbus A380. He rates thes tock a buy up to 25.

Aircastle (NYSE: AYR) and Genesis Lease (NYSE: GLS) are both aircraft leasing companies and publicly traded partnerships, and both are holdings in the Personal Finance model portfolio. He notes, "As airlines continue their recovery and passenger volume rises, older planes must be replaced and new planes added to the fleets."

Both partnerships, he notes, are based in Ireland and lease to both passenger airlines and cargo companies around the world. He says, ""Aircastle and Genesis are excellent bets on the continued growth of air travel and pay dividends of around 6% and 8%, respectively."

Continue reading Seven ways to play the airline sector

Three bets on the 787 Dreamliner

With Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) having now showcased its new 787 Dreamliner, investors might wonder if it is too late to invest. According to three newsletter advisors, there are still upside opportunities. One looks at Boeing itself, one spots value in an aircraft seat and interior designer, and one looks at an aircraft leasing play.

Boeing is a buy for longer-term investors from Bernie Schaeffer, who recommends the shares in his Power Stocks advisory.

Technically, the advisor notes that Boeing recently broke out after a lengthy sideways consolidation. From mid-November 2006 to the middle of last month, he points out that the stock traded in a narrow range between $85 and $92. He explains, "Such long periods of sideways movement can be followed by extended trends."

That level, he now says, should hold as support and should serve as a "foundation for higher prices." Further, he adds, the stock's rise above $100 is "psychologically significant" and should offer additional support for the stock.

The contrarian advisor notes, "Even with the strong fundamental and technical backdrop, Wall Street remains fairly pessimistic. According to Zacks, nine of the 18 analysts rate the stock a 'hold' or worse and three of those have a 'strong sell' rating on it. Any upgrades or upward price target revisions from this skeptical crowd could boost the stock."

Meanwhile, he maintains a target price for the stock is $127 a share. In addition to investing in Boeing itself, there are two ancillary companies that couldl benefit from the success of the Dreamliner.

Continue reading Three bets on the 787 Dreamliner

Market highlights for next week: Another Vioxx trial begins for Merck

Hoorah, now that this earnings period is starting to wind down, I can highlight some non-earnings events to look out for next week.

Monday May 14
Tuesday May 15
Wednesday May 16
Thursday May 17
Friday May 18

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+49.9111,496.57
NASDAQ-29.522,282.78
S&P 500+0.361,260.68

Last updated: July 20, 2008: 05:18 AM

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