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What will happen if Baby Boomers retire with 401Ks that look like 201Ks?

Academics, being a privileged and rarefied lot, almost by second nature consistently look down the field.

Hey, it's what one is supposed to do when one has lifetime job security and is freed of many of the burdens that occupy most others in the American workforce.

For the above reasons, and others, academics tend to see things others don't. Case in point: the slumping stock market, the U.S. recession, and decidedly less-cash-flush credit markets.

Continue reading What will happen if Baby Boomers retire with 401Ks that look like 201Ks?

Entrepreneur's Journal: What are the growth businesses today?

With the chances of finding a job fairly slim, people are certainly thinking about starting -- or even buying -- a business. But, which industry to go into?

It's a tough decision. Yet, there are still opportunities. To get some insight on this, I had a chance to talk to Toon van Beeck, who is the senior analyst with IBISWorld. Let's take a look:

Continue reading Entrepreneur's Journal: What are the growth businesses today?

Social Security will run out of money... in the year 2525

Sometimes the most basic of problems -- ones where the solution is fairly simple -- linger for decades in Washington, primarily for protection of status quo reasons.

A good example is Social Security -- the huge, bedrock entitlement program, often portrayed as facing a dire circumstance, when, in fact, as former U.S. Labor Department Secretary and current Berkeley Professor Robert Reich pointed out, the solution is fairly basic.

Continue reading Social Security will run out of money... in the year 2525

Will the U.S. economy's focus shift from consumption to production?

It's an axiom of business theory that change is continual in market economies, but as economist David H. Wang points out, there's change that corporations and citizens can prepare for, and then there's change that few expect.

The latter is, by its nature, Wang says, more disruptive - - driving companies out of business, compelling triage-like changes in business models of others, while also triggering wholesale changes to family budgets, career paths, and students' educational objectives.

Wang groups change in three categories: cyclical (as in the business cycle), technological (such as the Internet, car, telephone, electrification, railroad etc.), and structural (globalization, Cold War, Marshall Plan, Bolshevik Revolution, the Enlightenment, Protestant Reformation, etc).

Continue reading Will the U.S. economy's focus shift from consumption to production?

Where have all the consumers gone?

A journalism professor of yours truly, Jon Sandberg, who also served in key positions for several Connecticut governors, had an interesting technique that he frequently deployed in seminars. A student would pose a question and Sandberg would say, "That's a good question. Is it acceptable and ethical to publish information that you know would show ethical and other lapses by the current president, if you know that information would also harm innocent individuals? That's a good question."

Then Sandberg would grab his cup of coffee and walk to the window side of the classroom, and stare out the window, sipping his coffee, saying nothing, for an eternity. Eventually, a student or two would begin the discussion.

What's a good question for today? Maybe this: where have all the consumers gone in the U.S. economy? BloggingStocks had a chance to grill economist Peter Dawson on the matter, and he has a few theories.

The first concerns structural and technological factors, he said. The U.S. is in the midst of adjusting to globalization, which, as most investors know, has resulted in the transfer of millions of good-paying U.S. jobs overseas to lower-cost centers. "The U.S. has also gained some jobs from globalization, but the net is still a major loss of good-paying jobs in the United States," Dawson said. "Some economists argue that's at the root of declining consumption. We are net-negative in the good-paying jobs category, so far, in globalization, and there simply aren't enough citizens with incomes adequate to buy the products."

Continue reading Where have all the consumers gone?

Bet on T&A with J&J (JNJ)

Over the long holiday weekend, I had a chance to do some much needed reading. Given my vocation, sometimes I like to read articles that have little to do with the markets or finance as a way of recharging my batteries.

Of course, even when I partake in this guilty pleasure, there really is no way to truly escape. Somehow every story has a link or relationship to investing that I can utilize in my stock-picking mission.

This weekend, it was an article critical of a Shape magazine cover featuring a bikini-clad Faith Hill that has import for individual investors. In this particular article, the author does a really great job of highlighting the battle of fitness versus self-image.

How exactly did the 41-year-old country singer get that body? Was it photoshopped? How about plastic surgery? Is it really fair to present her in that way without the caveats, if any? The image alone implies that this woman, a busy professional with young children, managed to eat right and exercise in a way that created the image you now see on the magazine -- and that you can achieve yourself.

Wow, what pressure. The problem, of course, is that Photoshop was probably used in this instance, and if not Photoshop, then plastic surgery for certain.

So what does this have to do with investing?

This morning I awoke to the news that Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) announced a definitive agreement to purchase Mentor (NYSE: MNT), a leading supplier of medical products for the global aesthetic market -- namely, breast implants.

JNJ is paying $31 per share, or $1.07 billion in cash, for the company. The purchase price is about double what MNT fetched in the open market on Friday.

A premium price of that magnitude in this market environment is hard to believe, but I would not bet against JNJ here. They have their pulse on the market and a copy of Shape magazine on their desk. As the baby-boomer generation ages, plastic surgery looks to be a huge market. Fueled by images like those in Shape magazine, the market is more than worthy of a premium price.

The fact that MNT was valued at the purchase price as recently as June is telling. Yes, the economy is in recession, but the desire to improve self image is alive and well.

This is a brilliant deal for JNJ. The company enters a strong market with great demographics at a time of economic weakness. Taking advantage of a strong balance sheet and rich cash flow, JNJ is a winner in this economy.

Self-image issues aside, I like this deal.

Jamie Dlugosch is a contributor to InvestorPlace.com.

Company nicknames: NBC's peacock stands for much more than just 'living color'

This post is one in a series on prominent company nicknames. See all 25, and share your thoughts and memories about the Peacock Network below in the comments.

Perhaps more visually recognizable than any other television symbol today, NBC's colorful peacock logo and nickname encompass far more depth and history than simply having been a tool of recognition for NBC Television, subsidiary of General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE). Beyond simply identifying network programs in the age when NBC and CBS began applying the color palette to broadcast television, NBC's peacock was charged with the awesome task of informing and convincing the parents of the baby boomer generation that color television had arrived, it was good, and they wanted it. The peacock was assigned the monumental task of engaging the public. Indeed, it has performed that job to perfection.

I grew up fully addicted to television, and NBC's peacock long heralded the appearance of many of my favorite shows. Bonanza, NBC's first serious success in color broadcast television, was a weekly treat for me, as it was for millions of other enchanted TV viewers. Accordingly, by the time color television promotion had begun to move consumers to purchase the new color television sets, which sold for approximately $1,000 initially, the NBC peacock, which had begun its glorious life as a simple static image, learned how to fan its tail feathers in a motion indicative of the sweeping changes the television age would come to initiate.

Until man orbited the earth, television was perhaps the single greatest technological achievement since Henry Ford had put automobiles into mass production. Since the coming of color television in 1956, the NBC peacock has been a television communications fixture, and NBC television is respectfully referred to as "The Peacock Network" by people and publications throughout the industry. It can be said that very few other company logos have stood as representative for changes that have affected so many people, so very deeply, for such a long time.

Housing sector slump seen decreasing some Baby Boomers' nest eggs

Baby Boomers, in some cases already facing the 'double demands' of caring for kids and aging parents, have another economic concern, at least for the next phase of the housing cycle: substantially lower household net worth, as a result of declining home prices, so says a Washington-based think tank.

The Center for Economic and Policy Research says the median households head by those ages 45-54 in 2009 will have about 25% less wealth than the similar demographic in 2004. In dollars, household wealth will decline to $113,268 from $150,113.

Further, the above assume March 2008's housing prices hold for 2009: if they don't and prices fall another 10%, household net worth declines by about 35%; 20%, by about 45%, the CEPR said.

Economist Peter Dawson, who is not affiliated with the CEPR or the study, told BloggingStocks part of the problem was "unreasonable expectations regarding home appreciation rates, the belief that 10-15% real estate gains would continue for decades. It got too many adults out of the traditional saving and investing mode and into thinking their home would serve as a major return on investment." Most homes do appreciate, and they can help build wealth, Dawson said, but homeowners must think in terms of a 6-9% average, annual appreciation rate, "which is a more-realistic return for residential dwellings."

Continue reading Housing sector slump seen decreasing some Baby Boomers' nest eggs

Small business still powering

No doubt, small businesses are a powerful force in the U.S. economy in terms of job creation and innovation. And, according to a recent study from the Kauffman Foundation, it looks like things are still going strong, despite the slowing economy. For example, every month, about 500,000 new businesses are started (of course, there are certainly a good number that fail as well).

So, what are some of the key trends? Well, interestingly enough, there is quite a bit of growth from immigrants. In fact, they are more likely to start businesses than native-born Americans.

Something else: men are twice as likely to start a business then women. Actually, I think this is unfortunate because diversity certainly allows for stronger growth.

However, looking at the next decade or so, I suspect we'll see much more entrepreneurial activity. Why? It's when the Baby Boomers will reach their prime years for new business formation. They will have the wisdom and resources to take a flier. What's more, a new business may actually became an interesting way for Baby Boomers to essentially change the definition of "retirement" -- that is, leaving the rat race and doing what they really want.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook (www.mergerbook.com) and is also a principal in Averiware, which provides an ERP system to small and mid-size businesses.

The economics of Social Security, Medicare, and you

With a sluggish economy, uncertain job growth, the most serious housing recession in more than 20 years, record oil and gasoline prices, ramping food costs, and a foreign policy landscape that's challenging (to say the least), decision makers in the United States, public and private, have more than enough to be concerned about, near-term, most analysts and citizens would agree.

Still, the above wasn't enough to prevent the annual "alarm sounding" about long-term concerns, such as Social Security and Medicare, the likes of which occurred again this week when the Social Security Trustees released their revised 2008 actuarial balance, which is a status report.

Moreover, while it's never prudent to ignore the tax and benefits implications of entitlement programs as large as Social Security and Medicare, it's important that investors and taxpayers also keep in mind one undeniable reality pertaining to statistical analysis of this sort. Namely, that we're dealing with longitudinal projections stretching out decades in which -- if any one of 20 variables (or more) change -- receipts and outlays would change substantially.

Continue reading The economics of Social Security, Medicare, and you

Are U.S. consumers moving away from buying on credit?

American consumers, the pivotal factor in the consumer-dependent U.S. economy, may have modified their spending philosophy, The New York Times reported Tuesday.

Stung by the housing market correction, stagnant wage growth in certain job segments, above-average debt levels, and a slowing economy, Americans are saving more and using credit less -- a shift that some analysts argue is a cultural inflection point of sorts, with huge implications for the economy.

Economist Steve Affinito told BloggingStocks Tuesday that while The Times' interpretative report did not "cite a large enough sample size to meet my fancy," it nonetheless provided data points that support what macroeconomic indicators are saying about consumer choices.

"We know that the savings rate has increased in the last six months, and retail sales are sluggish, at best. Take these and combine them with much tighter credit terms for home equity loans and other credit and what you get is a pull back in purchases, particularly purchases on credit," Affinito said.

Continue reading Are U.S. consumers moving away from buying on credit?

The search for income for retirees

With treasury yields well below 4%, and even decent corporate paper not yielding much better, the question I keep hearing from my elderly clients who live off of their investment income is where are they going to get the income needed to meet their expenses. Thrown into the mix that, in four years million and millions of baby boomers are set to retire, so they will also need to start adjusting their portfolios to be more income oriented. I anticipate that we will see continued demand for high-rated bonds and, as such, I can't imagine that we will see yields back above 6% on good corporates.

What to do? The answer to that question is more involved than this space permits, but take a look at preferred stock to help supplement income. My buddy, Zack Miller had a nice post about this a while back. The problem with preferred stocks is that it's hard to get information on each issue and the terms of the issue. Also, liquidity can be an issue. That's why I like the POWERSHARES ETF TRUST (AMEX: PGF). The ETF is well diversified as it holds about 28 issues. More important is that it is yielding a shade under 7%. With preferreds having been slammed over the last few months, there may be some opportunity for some capital gains as well.

Living off fixed income? Check out preferred stocks.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer has a position and is long PGF. He has no positions in any stock mentioned as of 1/27/08

Demographic, education trends are in Hologic's (HOLX) favor

In a choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) market, discretion dictates that one look for companies where the demographics are running in the company's favor. Health care services in the United States is one sector, and in this category Hologic is worth an evaluation.

Hologic (NASDAQ: HOLX) manufactures mammography tests/products, workstations, and detection systems, as well as cervical cancer screening systems, among other health care service business lines.

Analysts see solid-to-robust growth for HOLX on favorable demographic trends and increased health education awareness to undergo regular, as-required tests for the conditions HOLX screens. Margins remain solid in both the breast cancer and cervical cancer detection areas, with promising opportunities to increase market share. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for HOLX are $1.69/$2.25.

The risks: Negative changes to Medicare and/or private insurer reimbursement rates would hurt HOLX's results, if clinics consequently reduce tests with machines/devices manufactured by HOLX. Analysts also are monitoring intensifying competition across HOLX's revenue streams.

The First Call mean rating for HOLX is: Buy. [13 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $73.00. [high: $77, low: $65.]

Stock Analysis: Hologic is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from HOLX's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $42.

DISCLOSURE: Joseph Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

Nordstrom: A retail play for the bold investor

Now is definitely not the time to think about retail sector investments. Soaring oil and gasoline prices, uncertainty regarding the size of the subprime mortgage default problem, and concerns about a slowing U.S. economy don't exactly flash the "SPEND" signal for consumers this holiday season.

Even so, Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) may buck the trend, or perform well despite the headwinds, to use a Wall Street phrase.

The case for buying Nordstrom rests on the company's increasing market share, solid balance sheet and cash flow, all driven by the Nordstrom brand. Over the last decade, Nordstrom has established itself at the leading upscale department store. Most retailers would love to have Nordstrom's combination of brand reputation, Baby Boomer appeal, and consistent shopping experience across store departments.

Continue reading Nordstrom: A retail play for the bold investor

Will baby boomers bankrupt social security?

USA Today reports that at age 62, America's first baby boomer opted into Social Security today. The question for America is whether the 80 million people born between 1946 and 1964 will bankrupt Social Security by the time all of them are receiving their payments.

The caseload for so-called entitlements -- Social Security and Medicare -- is going to explode in the next 23 years. By 2030, Social Security's caseload will be 84 million people, up from 50 million today. Medicare will go from 44 million beneficiaries to 79 million. That will leave about two workers paying payroll taxes for every retiree. The tab is estimated at $50 trillion in future obligations over the next 75 years. Social Security will rise from 4% to 6% of the GDP, and Medicare will go from 3% to 11%.

The options are not good. Fixing Social Security solely with higher taxes or cuts in spending would mean a 16% increase in the payroll tax or a 13% cut in benefits. Medicare's needs would be far greater: a 122% payroll tax hike or a 51% reduction in spending, just for hospital care. Unfortunately, the longer we wait to fix the problem, the more it will cost.

However, if history is any guide, we'll wait until a crisis before we find the will to act. And that crisis will fall on the shoulders of the baby boomers' children and grandchildren -- not much of a legacy.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-19.9510,206.99
NASDAQ-11.752,142.31
S&P 500-4.781,088.30

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 12:43 PM

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