Watch the tape. Ignore the chatter. Those two are old truisms. The U.S. treasury market held firm Monday, with the 10-year June futures contract closing at 120-06, up 16 ticks.

There was some chatter from naysayers that China or Japan, the biggest foreign holders of U.S. debt, might decide to sell. That piece of news can be discarded. Why would they sell and take huge losses?

Stocks markets, however, across the globe were down, prompting a scramble for safety. Which safety? Why, the U.S. treasury market.

When it comes to the biggest threat to world economies, oil scarcity is second only to nuclear war. What started in Tunisia, then spread to Egypt has now spreading to Bahrain and Iran, where protesters are clashing with police. In Iran, lawmakers are threatening death to protesters.

The fear of chaos spreading across the Middle East has sent the oil market into overdrive. Brent crude traded at $104 per barrel Tuesday.

The new earnings seasons kicks off tomorrow after the market closes when Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is scheduled to report first-quarter results.

Pittsburgh-based Alcoa has missed earnings estimates in only one quarter out of the past five. When the leading aluminum producer reported fourth-quarter results back in December, earnings of 36 cents per share beat the consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial by three cents, but were down from 74 cents per share in the same quarter of 2006. For this current quarter, analysts expect earnings of 50 cents per share.

Alcoa's full-year 2007 earnings per share of $2.60 missed estimates of $2.83, and were down from $2.96 for 2006. However, Alcoa also reported record revenue of $30.7 billion, as well as record income from continuing operations.

In March, Alcoa announced a quarterly common stock dividend of 17 cents per share, continuing a more than 60 year streak of quarterly dividends. In other recent news, former Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) CEO Stan O'Neal joined Alcoa's board of directors in January. Alcoa joined rival Aluminum Corp. of China (NYSE: ACH) in acquiring a stake in Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP). And a lawsuit against Alcoa by the government of Bahrain was suspended by the U.S. Justice Department, which is conducting its own bribery investigation.

Alcoa's forecast earnings per share growth for the year is 9.85%, which is better than the industry average and the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation from analysts is to buy Alcoa, and has been for at least 90 days. The share price has been climbing from the 52-week low of $26.69 in January, and closed at $39.00 on Friday.

BloggingStocks contributor Sheldon Liber took a good look at Alcoa's prospects back in February. For other news that could influence Alcoa's results, see BloggingStocks' Alcoa coverage.

This was the Dow today:

I'm sure you're all wondering what on earth happened. So here's some insight.

An Israeli fringe news site that always claims to have inside information on matters related to the military, Debka Files, published that the USS Nimitz is set to sail to the Gulf on Monday, officially to replace the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, but in reality to add to the growing U.S. forces in the region.

Moreover, Debka claims that US financial sources in Bahrain report American investors in Bahrain have been advised to pack up business operations and leave.

Other significant points include a Russian source that is predicting "that a U.S. strike against Iranian nuclear installations codenamed Operation Bite has been scheduled for April 6 at 0040 hours."

Meanwhile, Al Jazeera showed Iranian TV footage of a U.S. aircraft carrier cruising in the Gulf. As tensions mount between Iran and the West over its nuclear program and over the 15 captured British sailors, each such report only creates adverse responses in the market.

Debka has been known to be wrong before and should always be taken with a grain of salt. As it is, the market is already recovering and Reuters has since reported that the "White House has not heard anything about U.S. citizens being advised to leave Bahrain."