Investor Jim Rogers, noted for his expertise in commodities, is someone Wall Street professionals, business executives, and economists alike pay close attention to, as he's frequently been ahead-of-the-curve regarding market and investment trends.

Still, that's not to say that Rogers sometimes can't overdo it a bit and/or does not get it wrong.

A recent chat Rogers had with Bloomberg News is an example of the latter, as the talk yielded more rhetoric, half-truths, and flat out absurd statements and not a whole not of illumination.

These days, investors large and not so large are following the financial markets more closely than they have perhaps in decades. Is the U.S. recession worsening? Are there any more problematic banks? Is the market bottoming? There's a lot to assess, particularly if you have a 401K.

In times like these investors/readers turn to the likes of Warren Buffett or George Soros to analyze the financial and economic state of things.

However, today we turn to another trusted source, for time-tested counsel, advice, and wisdom: Lawrence Peter 'Yogi' Berra, retired Hall of Fame catcher for the New York Yankees, owner of 10 World Series championship rings and author of 'yogiisms' - - incisive malapropisms that reveal eternal truths.

Those who know Yogi know that his northern New Jersey home is accessible via two different routes, starting from a fork in the road. Hence, when Yogi gives directions to his house he says, "When you come to the fork in the road, take it."

Yogi's adage applies to economics, as well. When you come to the (economic) fork in the road, take it.

The United States is coming to an economic fork in the road, of sorts: it can get to its destination - - economic recovery - - by one of two paths.

The first would involve primarily using the Federal Reserve and quantitative easing. The Fed has already said it will purchase more than $600 billion of private debt, including commercial paper, mortgage-backed securities, and other asset-baked securities. (In order to cover potential losses associated with the Fed's purchases, the U.S. Treasury has set aside $20 billion in TARP funds authorized by Congress.) However, while additional quantitative easing in the aforementioned commercial segments (especially mortgage-backed securities) may trigger an increase in economic activity, such as an increase in mortgaged-based home purchases, it may not represent the segment where the Fed wants the extra growth to be.

More progress on the credit market front.

The London rate for three-month loans in dollars declined for the 20th consecutive day, dropping another 10 basis points to 2.29%. However, the three-month rate is still 129 basis points above the U.S. Federal Reserve's target interest rate. Further, the five-year average for the three month rate is 22 basis points.

Also, the difference between what banks and the U.S. Treasury pay to borrow dollars for three months, the TED spread, fell another 9 basis points to 174 basis points, which is down from 383 basis points on October 10.

However, the TED spread was 87 basis points before the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, and the current rate is still 163 basis points above the 11-basis-point, five-year average.

Economist Peter Dawson said credit markets have notched another good week. "It was another week of progress, with rates consistently heading lower, but more work remains," Dawson said. "Bank confidence is increasing, but it's not where it should be. More must be done by governments to remove toxic assets from banks and from the financial system to encourage more banks to lend."

Analysts believe that another 150 banks in the U.S. could fail over the near-term. According to The New York Times, "as many as 150 out of the 7,500 banks nationwide could fail over the next 12 to 18 months, analysts say. " The failure of IndyMac (NYSE: IMB) puts more focus on the problem

That puts investors in region banks in a tough spot. Shareholders in firms like NCC (NYSE: NCC) have watched the value of their stock drop from $33.54 to $4.42 over the last year as the bank cut its dividend and raised money. These holders can get out now because they fear an event which could take shares down to pennies. Or, they can hang on and hope that, once the financial crisis has passed, they may make some of their money back.

In many cases, the stock price is an excellent indication of what stockholders might want to do. IndyMac shares are down 99%. NCC's are down 85%, and its viewed by most as a bank that will "make it" because it has raised more money.

It would appear that the banks that the market is most worried about are off 90% to 96%. The institutions in that category probably carry the greatest risk of failure, if the stock market is an accurate indicator. The "if" part is the hard part.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

The Wall Street Journal's [subscription required] David Wessel gets it. His analysis of the problems with the banking system and how to fix them are spot on. He thinks there are three steps to fix the system and I agree.

His three steps:

• Link banker's pay to the quality of the loans they originate
• Improve the quality of bank monitoring to increase transparency
• Stop letting the ratings agencies' clients pay for their ratings

I posted about these ideas last year. In this October 2007 post, for example, I commented on the importance of putting banker's compensation at risk when they originate loans. I thought that if bankers' bonuses were at stake, they would be more careful about the loans they originated. I also discussed the importance of transparency in reporting. And in this August 2007 post, I talked about how the ratings agencies were compromised by the fact that they were being paid by the people they were supposed to rate.

I like Wessel's ideas and I hope his powerful editorial pulpit helps to get them implemented.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Even the Fed is getting nervous about the market. This morning, it cut the discount rate from 6.25% to 5.75%.

The agency said its move was to promote the restoration of orderly conditions in financial markets.

The Fed's website carried a statement explaining the move: "These changes will remain in place until the Federal Reserve determines that market liquidity has improved materially."

The board's governors clearly believe now that tight credit conditions are killing the markets and threaten the economy.

The move is giving the market significant relief. S&P futures, which were down sharply early in the morning are now up 22 points and the market looks to open strongly in the green.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.