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Four reasons we're stuck with high unemployment for a while

Some of the jobs that have disappeared through this recession are gone forever, it seems. Even when the market turns, and even gains momentum, we could be stuck with a fairly weak employment market for a while. The recovery will take longer than we'd like, putting more distance between now and the top of the next market run. We've lost 7.2 million jobs since December 2007, and the predictions of some economists that we'll get them back by 2014 may actually seem optimistic.

Unemployment is at 9.8%, and it's expected to clear 10% early next year. Then, we have the specter of a jobless recovery with which to contend. "Full employment" is often considered to be an unemployment rate of 4% to 5%, but it could be a while before we get there. The last downturn, following the dotcom bust, resulted in a peak unemployment rate of 6.3% in 2003 ... and we're already well past that.

Why is the recovery going to be such a grind? Check out the four major reasons after the jump.

Continue reading Four reasons we're stuck with high unemployment for a while

TARP bankers are lending less and will prolong the recession

Remember way back when the U.S. Treasury said it would no longer keep buying toxic assets, but instead would give TARP money directly to the banks to stimulate lending? The Treasury gave 550 banks $200 billion with the understanding that they would use the money to increase their lending.

Forget about it. Banks are not doing what they were directed to do with the TARP money. The U.S. Treasury reported that lending by the 21 largest banks actually fell by 2.2% across all consumer lending categories in February compared with the prior month. Declines were seen in commercial real estate, general business lending, as well as credit cards and student loans. The only bright spot was mortgage refinancing. With the low interest rates now available, refinancing was up 35% in February.

Continue reading TARP bankers are lending less and will prolong the recession

LBO loans become bigger problem for banks

It has looked like LBO loans were going to be hard for banks to syndicate to institutional investors. They tend to be fairly risky because the companies taken private often have to do very well to cover the debt service. Concerns about that happening in a recession are growing.

All of this means that big money center banks are being stuck with the loans. Since they are almost certainly worth less than their face value, that could lead to another round of write-downs at banks.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "with the prices of existing loans tumbling, investors have little incentive to buy new loans unless they are sold at steep discounts, something banks are reluctant to do." JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) held $26.4 billion in LBO loans at the end of last year. Other large banks probably have similar amounts on their balance sheet. Many of these will be sold for 90 cents on the dollar, if they get sold at all.

Banks may have another series of financial problems just around the corner.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Last updated: May 28, 2012: 07:31 AM

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