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Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 6, 7, 8, 9

Bank of America (BAC) logoHere are the next four of my 2011 picks. I am behind schedule, after publishing the first 5 earlier in the week (see: Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11). This year instead of starting completely anew, I am adjusting my 2010 picks. There is no sense in abandoning good ideas just because the calendar turned a page.

You will actually find support of running themes I have been writing about over the past few months. One of these is the idea of making a contrarian investment in a basket of stocks that have been both scalded and scolded in the headlines. Six stocks were included in such a group that I called the "toxic stocks" (see: Chasing Value: Toxic Stock Update #3 -- BAC, BP, C, GE, GS, RIG).

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 6, 7, 8, 9

The Bank of New York Mellon: Well-Positioned for the Next Asset Management Wave

Typically, a bank stock that meanders for the better part of a year would raise a caution flag in these circles. But not so when that bank is The Bank of New York Mellon (BK), which I first wrote about on April 6, 2009, at a price of $28.16.

Look for BK's 2010 revenue to rise about 7% to 10%, on higher fees and improving margins. Asset management fees in its equities and fixed income businesses should record solid increases, on price gains in those markets and due to increased client deposits. New business wins add to the positive mix.

Continue reading The Bank of New York Mellon: Well-Positioned for the Next Asset Management Wave

The Bank of New York Mellon Is Undervalued

The Bank Of New York Mellon's (BK) stock has meandered since the April 6, 2009 buy call at a price of $28.16. With most other stocks, that would be a concern, but given the bank's track record, I'm obviously reiterating my buy rating.

Founded by Alexander Hamilton, The Bank of New York provides services that enable institutions and individuals to move and manage their financial assets in more than 100 markets globally. The core of BK's business, custodial services, is doing just fine, with more than $16 trillion in assets under custody.

Continue reading The Bank of New York Mellon Is Undervalued

Wells Fargo (WFC): 'Ride the financial wave'

"Banks had taken a brutal beating over the last two years was brutal; the S&P Sector SPDR Financials dropped 72.0% from its high last September to its low in March," notes Brandon Clay.

In his Invest with an Edge, he explains, "One bank in particular is exerting itself again as a dominant player: Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC)." Here's his review.

"The painful declines in bank stocks appear to have stopped for now, as bank stocks have exploded off the March lows. As we've observed, financials have 'friends in high places.'

"Banks in general are showing promise as credit becomes easier. There's still a long way to go for complete recovery, but the trend is pointing up.

Continue reading Wells Fargo (WFC): 'Ride the financial wave'

Hudson City (HCBK): 'Best in breed' bank bet

"Hudson City Bancorp (NASDAQ: HCBK) is a fortress of safety with plenty of upside potential," says value investor Nathan Slaughter.

In his Half-Priced Stocks, he explains, "The 140-year old bank is a classic example of the tortoise and hare fable. Its slower, measured approach has paid off handsomely and keptit at arms length from the problems plaguing other banks."

"Hudson City manages a network of 130 bank branches spread throughout affluent regions of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. At last count, the firm had over $20 billion in deposits and approximately $56 billion in total assets.

"According to an independent study, this tight-knit institution has been rated one of the nation's three strictest mortgage underwriters. So when most other banks relaxed their standards in recent years to attract riskier clientele, Hudson City stuck to its conservative roots and refused to budge.

Continue reading Hudson City (HCBK): 'Best in breed' bank bet

Capital One Financial: A play for high-risk investors only

Is there a safe bank stock in this market? Well, given the unprecedented losses on mortgages and mortgage-related assets stemming from the leveraging bubble's excesses: no there isn't. But some banks do offer opportunities for investors who can tolerate high risk, and Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) in one of these.

In general, analysts expect the rate of growth Capital One's loan delinquencies and charge-offs to slow. Further, COF has passed the U.S. Treasury's stress test and will not be required to raise new capital.

Continue reading Capital One Financial: A play for high-risk investors only

UBS narrows quarterly loss after write-downs

This morning, Swiss bank UBS (NYSE: UBS) reported a first-quarter loss of roughly $1.75 billion, adding a warning that bad-debt charges could increase. UBS's loss of 1.98 billion Swiss francs was far better than the 11.62 billion Swiss francs that the bank lost a year ago.

While UBS saw improved sentiment during the quarter, the bank remains cautious about its immediate outlook, noting, "The strong influence that government policy has on the market environment was clearly demonstrated in the first quarter as investors became less risk averse. However, the real economy has continued to deteriorate, and this is expected to have negative implications for credit-related provisioning in coming quarters."

Continue reading UBS narrows quarterly loss after write-downs

Today's technical outlook: Back out of the banks

Today's technical outlookAs the three-day Easter weekend approaches, volume is declining as both traders and investors shy away from a market that is fraught with uncertainty.

Not only are the Q1 earnings in doubt, but longer-term economic analysis by the ChangeWave team indicates that we can expect to see a trading range of 700 to 900 on the S&P 500 for at least several months. And this is supported by my own technical analysis.

After a discussion of many of the risks peculiar to this economic cycle, the ChangeWave team appraises the big economic forces that "simply have to play out over time."

Continue reading Today's technical outlook: Back out of the banks

Comfort Zone Investing: Time to buy bank stocks?

Bank stocks are well off their bottoms. Bank Of America (NYSE: BAC) traded at $2.53 on Feb. 20 of this year. Now it's $7.90 as I check the latest quote. Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) was down to $7.80 on March 5. You'll have to pay $17 as of this writing. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) touched $14.96 before bouncing to $28. And Citigroup (NYSE: C) (hopefully) bottomed at $.97 on March 5, then ran to $3 as I write this. Is it finally time to start buying bank stocks?

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Time to buy bank stocks?

Hedge Fund Apocalypse: Massive short squeeze on Citi could wipe out dinosaur funds

Citibank N.A.

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While Ben Bernanke's announcement that the Fed was buying Treasuries and sucking up bad mortgages was the cosmetic reason for financials to soar, an equally compelling reason may have been the massive but little-noted short squeeze that the announcement, combined with large government purchases of stakes in these companies, engendered.

Continue reading Hedge Fund Apocalypse: Massive short squeeze on Citi could wipe out dinosaur funds

Barclays (BCS): Some hope for U.S. bank stocks

Barclays (NYSE: BCS) posted earnings that would be the envy of almost any other global bank. In the process, it gave the troubled banking industry some hope that the future will not be one of ongoing losses stretching well into this year, if not into next.

The bank's second half surprised analysts. According to Bloomberg, "It looks like a pretty good underlying performance and start to 2009," said Michael Trippitt, a London-based analyst at Oriel Securities Ltd., who has an `add' rating on Barclays." A lot of the improvement came because many of Barclays large consumer and business service divisions did well when the effects of toxic asset where taken out.

Continue reading Barclays (BCS): Some hope for U.S. bank stocks

Memo to the President: Don't recycle bad bank fix ideas, get new ones that work

You've asked people to give you ideas, so here's one: Don't recycle Bush's failed ideas and expect them to work. Each of those failed ideas has deep flaws. Instead, if you have to save the banking system -- and I would like to see how things would work if companies and people lived within their means rather than borrowing to pay for things that they can't afford -- then cull and capitalize or create new banks.

Here's what's wrong with the three recycled Bush ideas being floated:

Continue reading Memo to the President: Don't recycle bad bank fix ideas, get new ones that work

Bank of America board lends support to CEO

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) CEO Kenneth Lewis has received the dreaded vote of confidence from his company's board of directors.

In a statement, Bank of America lead director Temple Sloan said that "The board today during their regular meeting expressed support for Ken Lewis and the management team, noting their experience in managing through challenging environments and in assimilating mergers."

Is Mr. Sloan on crack? Ken Lewis has presided over an acquisition-fueled destruction of shareholder value that is almost without precedent in the history of the world. If Mr. Lewis has experience in assimilating mergers, it is only because he has made so many boneheaded acquisitions.

Continue reading Bank of America board lends support to CEO

Seven reasons the market is not going up any time soon: #4 The banks are falling apart

The banks are a wreck and now the pieces are beginning to fly apart, with Citigroup (NYSE: C) struggling the most and beginning to dismember itself.

Meredith Whitney, the uber-analyst who has been right about everything in banking for more than two years, said there were $2.4 trillion in asset downgrades at the end of last year by the credit agencies. This will really whack the banks' critical Tier 1 capital.

And even if you forget earnings problems, the banks will continue to have no money to lend, which will strangle businesses and the economy.

Be sure to read all 7 reasons the stock market isn't going up any time soon.

Michael Shulman is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.

The case builds in U.S. for two-tier banking

In the months, and perhaps quarters ahead, they'll be a great deal of talk about banking reform, in the context of financial services reform.

You'll hear much about the need 'to ban banks' or 'get control of commerce / economic activity out of banks hands' etc.

The fault, dear Brutus, is in ourselves

These well-intentioned arguments are missing the point. The problem is not banks per se, but the abuse of the FDIC provision and related insurance protections. In other words, what has to end is not banks, but 'heads the bank wins, tails the U.S. taxpayer loses (and pays).'

And as I wrote earlier, one viable solution, outlined by economist Richard Felson, is two-tier banking. An interpretive report by Gretchen Morgenson in Sunday's New York Times (NYSE: NYT) basically describes the themes discussed in the two-tier banking blog, and what appears to be the likely direction for banking.

Briefly, in the future, Felson argues that there should be two levels of banks. The first: private banks that invest in commercial operations, offer higher interest rates and have other exotic investment products, but offer no government insurance on deposits.

The second level: community-based banks that invest primarily in conventional mortgages, offer very low interest rates on deposits, have no high-risk / high interest rate investments, but offer government insurance for depositors.

Continue reading The case builds in U.S. for two-tier banking

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IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 11, 2012: 12:16 PM

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