In what could be the most watched private equity deal of the year, a consortium of buyout firms led by billionaire investor Wilbur L. Ross has set its sights on BankUnited Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: BKUNA), says the Wall Street Journal (subscription required). The consortium includes Carlyle Group and Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX).

Earlier this year, federal regulators declared that the Florida-based lender was "critically undercapitalized" and demanded that it find a buyer or raise new capital. While regulators have traditionally favored other lenders in sales of banks, if Ross's group is successful, it would not only be one of the largest acquisitions in the financial-services sector made by private equity, but could also signal a shift in the government's attitude toward private-equity buyers of banks.

Last week, the FDIC oversaw the second biggest bank failure in U.S. history -- $32 billion IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB). I thought more would be on the way and this morning's New York Times estimates that 150 of the 7,500 U.S. banks will fail in the next 12 to 18 months. The FDIC only has $53 billion in its fund to cover bank failures so it is going to be needing much more cash, which it may get from raising insurance rates. No doubt those of us with bank accounts will pay the price.

For those looking to profit from this failure, it's time to get a hold of the FDIC's problem bank list and start estimating the ones that are most likely to get taken over. Here are some hints: look at their mortgages as a percent of total loans, their cash flow, when they have to pay back their debt, and the increase in the rate of their bad loans. The Times mentions two that are probably already on the radar of short sellers:

• BankUnited Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: BKUNA) in Florida, which trades at 77 cents a share and is probably too far gone to profit from as a short, went for $20 a share a year ago.
• Downey Financial Corporation (NYSE: DSL) in California, which trades at $1.69 today, traded at $65 a year ago.