bargainstocks posts
FeedPosted Nov 29th 2007 8:43AM by Beth Gaston Moon (RSS feed)
Filed under: Personal Finance, Bargain Stocks, Stocks to Buy

To keep below the $10 threshold on our first pick, investors may need to get in while the getting is good.
Bruker BioSciences (NASDAQ:
BRKR) is growing ever-closer to double-digit territory, and now may be the opportune time to open a position. The company develops and manufactures equipment and tools for use in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology fields.
During the past year, sales have grown by nearly 47%. At the company's last earnings report on October 29, the firm said net income jumped to $8.66 million, or 8 cents per share, from $2.98 million (3 cents per share) in the year-ago period. Excluding items, BRKR banked 6 cents per share, or a penny better than Wall Street's consensus estimate.
Continue reading 10 stocks under $10: Bruker BioSciences (BRKR)
Posted Nov 26th 2007 3:50PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Consumer Experience, Competitive Strategy, ETF Investing, Harley-Davidson (HOG), Bargain Stocks, Chasing Value™, Headline News, Stocks to Buy
This week's Barron's examined Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) as a value play. Having written multiple posts enumerating many of the same points over the last couple of months, it seems that there is not much left to be said, except to simply lay out the Harley Bulls vs. Bears points.
The Bull story is that Harley-Davidson remains a world-class brand name, selling at a discount to its historic P/E and the average of the market. It has a high 40% return on equity, a clean balance sheet, excellent management, double-digit growth in foreign markets, and will maintain its profit margins through its carefully managed (now reduced) production cycles. It also has relatively predictable income from the sale of replacement parts, licensed products and its finance company.
The Bears think the Bulls are full of it, and that Harley's past its prime just like the Baby Boomers that continue to be the lifeblood of the company. The average buyer is a 46-year-old white male, and that market can not sustain Harley going forward. They also argue that, costing an average of $14,000, these bikes are the wrong product in a market where consumer discretionary spending is waning as talk of a possible recession lingers on.
Continue reading Chasing Value: Barron's likes Harley-Davidson too
Posted Sep 20th 2007 2:50PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Competitive Strategy, Harley-Davidson (HOG), Bargain Stocks, Chasing Value™, Stocks to Buy
The last time I bought Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) I paid $18 a share and it is one of our oldest holdings. Today, I finally bought some more. I probably share way too much personal information with readers of BloggingStocks but I just can't bring myself to suggest to people something I would not do myself, and in any case my readership is not large enough to move the market (nor is the few shares we acquired.) Too many advisers are promoting stocks they themselves would not touch with a ten foot pole.
Harley is near a 52-week low of $46.15, closing yesterday at $48.59. Management trimmed production levels recently to better balance with demand after years of very healthy increases. It was bound to overshoot demand at some point and it is wise to moderate production. HOG had reached its 52-week high of $75.87 last November (2006). I am not looking for miracles with this purchase. I am looking for a sound business with good management, at a value price and solid prospects, and Harley-Davidson is all of that, and then some. A patient investor need not expect anything more than a return to its high sometime over the next three years.
Continue reading Chasing Value: Harley-Davidson (HOG) looking on down the road
Posted Sep 4th 2007 4:45PM by Jonathan Berr (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major Movement, Market Matters, Economic Data, S and P 500, DJIA, Housing
This market is either a bargain hunter's paradise or a trap for the gullible.
As Bloomberg News notes, shares of software companies in the S&P 500 are trading 20.8 times their estimated profit, their lowest level since at least 1995 and industrial companies trade at 18.4 times earnings, lower than their average of 23.4 this decade. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 for August was the lowest since November 1995, according to Bloomberg.
Echoing the sentiment of many bulls, AIM Investments' Fritz Meyer told Bloomberg that, "The market's probably seen the worst of it" and that the Fed will "ultimately ride to the rescue."
Really?
The housing market isn't improving any time soon. Retail sales are lackluster and consumer confidence remains shaky. And I'm not so sure that the Fed is too eager to ride to anyone's rescue. Chairman Ben Bernanke, as I've argued before, doesn't seem like he's eager to cut rates though the pundits say something will get done even if the Fed has to hold its nose.
Expectations are high which means that the potential for disappointment is huge. Today's bargains may stay cheap for quite some time. That doesn't mean people should avoid the market entirely. They just need to keep their expectations realistic.
Posted Aug 22nd 2007 6:30PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Bargain Stocks, Chasing Value™
Talk about unloved, Headwaters Incorporated (NYSE: HW) is so far down you would think they were a homebuilding hedgefund that wrote their own sub-prime loans and kept them. In the spring of last year this once high flyer was trading at $40, but yesterday it closed at $15.67. That's a wild ride for anyone that held on until now. So here's the good news: now it's a value proposition. Now it's worth looking at. HW was called to my attention many times in recent history but I always felt it was a good company that was too expensive. Perhaps now it is a good company that is being unduly punished.
Before I get into the promising part of the story I want to share my greatest apprehension. Last week the company announced that Chief Financial Officer Scott Sorensen was resigning and it would bring his predecessor Steven Stewart back from retirement to be the new CFO. It is never a good sign when there is a shake up in the CFO's office. We do not know if Sorensen was pushed out to make room for Stewarts return and "stewart-ship" in turning the ship around or that Sorensen is abandoning a sinking ship and Stewart was brought back as the only way to keep the stock afloat. As an Enron loser I will always be watchful of management shuffling.
Continue reading Chasing Value: Headwaters Inc. (HW) an under water opportunity
Posted Aug 16th 2007 4:15PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Market Matters, ETF Investing, Bargain Stocks, Chasing Value™, Stocks to Buy
FreightCar America Inc. (NYSE:
RAIL) came to my attention while screening for stocks with high returns on invested capital and low prices relative to historic earnings -- not forward projections and guessing, but real facts. It is way too hard to predict the future.
The company designs and makes railroad freight cars, more than 95% of which are aluminum-bodied coal-carrying cars. FreightCar America claims leadership in the North American market for coal-carrying cars. Other products include coil steel cars, flatcars, intermodal cars, mill gondola cars, and motor vehicle carriers. The chart below shows RAIL's stock dropping over the last year and recently it was reported FreightCar America 2Q profit plunges, but this just presents a buying opportunity.
Note that the stock has come down from its high of $77 (52-week high is $60.07) to reach a low of $41.57 on Wednesday. This is an 83% drop, all the while Warren Buffett and Carl Icahn are buying railroad stocks. Here are some supporting metrics from AOL Money & Finance to open your eyes; The P/E is 5.51, the P/S is 0.49, IT HAS ZERO DEBT!, with an ROE and ROI of 87 and an ROA of 47 - that's incredible!
While I strongly urge you to look into this stock, I also suggest you check out these figures with multiple sources because I have seen errors in various places at times. I verified this on Bloomberg through my Vanguard service. I do not own RAIL currently but it is on my watchlist and may end up in my portfolio very soon.
Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well - INCLUDING ANY BAD CALLS.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.
Continue reading Volatile Markets: Ride FreightCar America (RAIL)
Posted Jul 31st 2007 12:30PM by Kevin Kersten (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major Movement, Alcoa Inc (AA), CIT Group (CIT), Nucor Corp (NUE), Hasbro Inc (HAS), Starwood Hotels Worldwide (HOT), Personal Finance, DJIA
The market had a correction last week and we saw steep declines. People suddenly ask what is going on? Regardless of whether there is a "reason" for the decline, market commentators will disclose a number of factors with the utmost certainty that they are the cause for the fall.
Markets go up and down and all this analysis is over blown. Ultimately, there is a herd mentality in the market and at times very few people think for themselves. People in the market are like mindless cows at times, blindly following others right off the edge of the cliff.
I am sure there are psychologists and sociologists that have all sorts of explanations for this, but let's talk about animals instead. While I have never been in an honest stampede, I have been in front of a cow that had its mind intently set on going a certain direction. Knowing my weight and the milk cows weight, I have to recommend against ever being in that position. If you are smart you don't get in front of a stampeding cow.
Continue reading Are you smarter than a cow? Herd mentality and the falling market
Posted Jul 27th 2007 12:51PM by Jonathan Berr (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings Reports, Management, Competitive Strategy, Exxon Mobil (XOM), AT and T (T), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Comcast Cl'A' (CMCSA), United Technologies (UTX)
Whenever the market turns bearish, investors dole out severe punishments to stocks for misdemeanor violations. This would be like sending someone to Guantanamo Bay for a traffic ticket. Yesterday's hero often turns into today's goat on Wall Street. The trick is figuring out which stocks deserve a second chance. Here are my five choices.
- Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) -- The no. 1 cable operator has made the foolish decision in the eyes of Wall Street of investing in its business. Its capital spending will be about $5.7 billion this year, which isn't surprising really since it's adding about 6,000 new workers and building a new swanky corporate headquarters in Philadelphia. Earlier this week, Comcast reported earnings that didn't blow away Wall Street expectations but they weren't to sneeze at either. The company's digital voice business is booming even though the basic video business is not.
- Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) -- Yeah, the world's largest oil company's earnings didn't meet expectations. But consider that the culprit was lower-than-expected natural gas price. Even the biggest tree hugger in the world should realize that is something that even Exxon Mobil can't control. I know people often accuse the oil companies of being in cahoots with one another. Have you ever met an oil executive? These guys can't agree on lunch let alone price fixing.
Continue reading For these five stocks, the punishment didn't fit the crime
Posted Jun 12th 2007 3:35PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, India, ETF Investing, Economic Data, Bargain Stocks, Chasing Value™, Tata Mtrs Ltd (TTM)
Who will be the number one car maker in India? Who is among the richest and best connected families in India? Who would you bet your hard earned money on in India? Tata -- my thoughts exactly.
I did not want to pay one penny over $16 for this stock and today I got it. Tata Motors LTD (NYSE: TTM) has been on my watch list of foreign companies, in rapidly expanding markets, I have had my eye on (and limit order) for quite some time. Today I was able to get it, to my surprise. I expect this to be a long-term hold with huge growth potential, bought at a value price, and paying a 4% 1.75% yield to boot. Now that's a fantastic deal all the way around.
Continue reading Chasing Value: Tata Motors LTD - patience, patience, GOT IT!
Posted Jun 8th 2007 12:30PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Home Depot (HD), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Columns, Walt Disney (DIS), Caterpillar (CAT), Alcoa Inc (AA), Amer Intl Group (AIG), ETF Investing, Bargain Stocks, Serious Money, DJIA
Whittling Away at the Dow has been my longest multi-part blog to date. This is the seventh and concluding post of the series and for those that have been following along I hope there has been something of value for you in my comments. Among my surprises have been that there was so much value still left in the Dow given it's reaching new highs almost daily; I was surprised Disney was among the stocks that made the cut, and I was surprised at how few comments I received. You might notice that all six stocks that made the cut were from the top half of the Dow 30, perhaps I became tougher as I went along, but that's how it worked out. If you want to read the previous posts the following links will get you there: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, or Part 6. So here we go, whittling the six down to three. Here are the stars:
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Home Depot (NYSE:
HD): Retail and wholesale hardware and construction materials
Continue reading Serious Money: Whittling away at the Dow - best values : Part 7
Posted Jun 6th 2007 2:05PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Management, Microsoft (MSFT), Pfizer (PFE), Wal-Mart (WMT), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Indices, Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Procter and Gamble (PG), Verizon Communications (VZ), United Technologies (UTX), Bargain Stocks, Serious Money, , DJIA
This will conclude the whittling process of the 30 Dow Jones Industrials with the last six below. Although the Dow has done very well in the last six months there still appears to be plenty of value here from everything I am able to surmise.
So far I have whittled the Dow down to six stocks: Alcoa Aluminum (NYSE: AA), American International Group (NYSE: AIG), Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and The Home Depot (NYSE: HD). You can link to the previous posts, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4 or Part 5 for your own review and comments.
Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) is a tough one for me to review because there are a lot of mixed signals in the data and the market about Pfizer concerning its pipeline of products. Most notably it has a P/S of 4.14 (TTM) which would place it outside of my consideration by a factor of two under most situations. This is a result of declining sales, but the decline has not hurt earnings in a big way, so the P/E has been coming down as a result. The P/E is about average for the DOW but historically low for Pfizer. If the "pipeline" is truly bare then this trend will continue. However, the stock is supported by a 4.2% yield, almost no long-term debt, and trailing margins that are HUGE at about 40%. Back to the less than appealing issues: PFE has a price-to-cash-flow ratio of almost 15, too high for me. In the long run Pfizer may be a great hold. If you are looking for a solid dividend payer with resistance to much downside risk it would be great for your Roth IRA, but here and now, it might be a short term value trap. In the absence of an acquisition or great new drug where is the upside?
Continue reading Serious Money: Whittling away at the Dow - MSFT, PFE, PG, UTX, VZ, & WMT: Part 6
Posted May 16th 2007 12:39PM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Competitive Strategy, Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Entrepreneurs
It is amazing to watch when Warren Buffett announces he has made a purchase in such and such company. Sure enough, the shares are active that day and move up. Investors are pleased with the 5-10% gain and then what invariably happens is the boost evaporates and the stocks stall-out. The stocks have their day in the sun and then many investors are off to the next headline.
Buffett, Carl Icahn and Eddie Lampert have staffs of MBA's crunching numbers, applying probability factors and examining margin expansion or contraction based on several assumptions. After grinding the data through rigorous tests and models, investment recommendations are made to the committees, headed by the Mr. Buffett, etc.. The intangibles are then put into place: quality of management being the first and most important one. They look at addressable market size: is it expanding or contracting? Is it a zero-sum game of shifting market share amongst the better players or is the market growing and the intended investment is also taking share? This is the science of investing.
The art of investing is figuring out the future of the intended company and the industry where it plays ball. The art takes into account a 5-10 year time horizon--not the next headline. The problem with many investors, professional and individual, is a lack of patience.
Continue reading Chasing the billionaires' stock buys
Posted Mar 3rd 2007 5:47PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Forecasts, China, Columns, Alcoa Inc (AA), ETF Investing, Bargain Stocks, Chasing Value™
You don't need a reminder that the Chinese stock market took a dive this week. That, combined with a few untimely comments from bearish economists, sub-prime lenders facing 'issues', housing foreclosures up, housing starts down, oil prices up and squabbling in Washington about federal spending took its toll and rattled world markets.
This writer remains an optimist -- and a pragmatist, which is of at least equal importance -- and still the contrarian. I don't care how scary China looks right now to some, this is a buying opportunity. Here's how I see it: In the long run the market is going up! The Chinese market will be the biggest market! And I want to buy at bargain prices for the long term!
The Aluminum Corporation of China ADS (NYSE: ACH), which I have discussed before, has not been mentioned in the conversations about Alcoa Inc (NYSE: AA) possibly being a buy-out candidate, or in the comparisons with Alcan Inc. (NYSE:AL), its Canadian competitor.
ACH closed yesterday at $22.98, with a P/E under 8.0 and a 5.5% dividend yield. In addition to this, the P/S was 0.65, and the P/B was 0.62. To me this indicates a tremendous value. What if its profits were to drop in half? Well, surprisingly, it would than be about par with Alcoa.
For comparison, Alcoa has P/E of 14.0 and a 2% dividend yield. The P/S was 1.17, and the P/B was 2.07. These are very favorable numbers, and I actually considered Alcoa to feature here. But, as you can see, it seems far more pricey than ACH. Also considering that Alcoa has been mentioned as a buyout target at a considerable premium to its current valuation - that only makes ACH look even cheaper. ACH has only been public for about 5 years, chart below.

You can see that it has had a wild ride but clearly an upward trend.
Continue reading Chasing value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS
Posted Mar 2nd 2007 4:10PM by Jonathan Berr (RSS feed)
Filed under: Earnings Reports, SEC Filings, Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades, Bad News, Management, Industry, Competitive Strategy, Dell (DELL), Ford Motor (F), Home Depot (HD), Columns, Caterpillar (CAT), Halliburton (HAL), Allstate Corp (ALL), Amer Intl Group (AIG)
Don't confuse cheap stocks with bargains.
Remember that shares may be inexpensive for a good reason -- for instance, because the company is going down the drain. Savvy investors know that things are rarely as awesome or horrendous as the market sentiment may indicate, of course. There is a point when every single shred of potential bad news is factored into a stock price on even the most unlucky of companies.
Remember, things can always get worse before they get better. With that in mind, here's a review of some stocks that my colleagues and I think have values that are compelling.
Names that I've liked include Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD) and, for the truly adventurous, Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F). My colleagues have singled out General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE), Dell Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL), Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) and Halliburton Co. (NYSE:HAL) for your consideration.
Let me add a few others.
American International Group Inc. (NYSE:AIG) reported results Thursday that missed analysts' forecasts because of one-time charges and announced a $5 billion buyback. The stock climbed a mere 3 percent on the news. It will probably climb higher. Wall Street analysts expect it to hit $79.63, about $10 above where it's currently trading.
Other insurance stocks including Allstate Corp. (NYSE:ALL) and Ace Ltd. (NYSE:ACE) also look cheap. Allstate is trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of about 9. Ace is about 8, while AIG's is 11.
Continue reading When bargain hunting, be very picky
Posted Feb 28th 2007 5:00PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Good news, Blogs, China, Columns, , Duke Energy (DUK), ETF Investing, Anadarko Petroleum (APC)
I have written several stories questioning James Cramer's investing approach and stock picks, but I can tell you all that there are many words of wisdom he has shared as well. One thought that I have cherished is that "there is always a bull market somewhere." Continuing on that train of thought I know that Warren Buffett has wondered out loud why people get so happy when the market prices rise. When he goes shopping (investing) he wants to find a bargain, and pay less not more for that which he seeks. So with that in mind I present some stocks that are looking mighty appealing after Tuesday's significant stock market drop. At least put them on your watch list after checking them out.
For Starters:
Aluminum Corporation of China ADS (NYSE: ACH) P/E = 7.82, P/S = 0.65, P/B = 0.62, yield = 5.57% Bought this one yesterday at $22.00, it closed at 22.60 but has jumped up in early morning trading.
Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC) P/E = 6.87, P/S = 2.76, P/B = 1.41, yield = 0.88% I Had to list this one after my two recent write-ups including last Friday's Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it! Bought this one last week at $40.00. It closed at $39.98 on a small drop and was back over my water line in after hours trading.
Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) P/E = 12.50, P/S = 1.16, P/B = 0.96, yield = 4.19% Own this in my Roth IRA. Yesterday it closed at 19.63 down slightly, but in dubious markets you must own some utilities.
Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) P/E = 11.64, P/S = 1.95, P/B = 1.61, yield = 4.98% Own this in my Roth IRA also. Yesterday it closed at $42.36 down 0.98 (-2.26%_, but it has a monster yield and has been trading in a tight range for several years, while earnings have grown. It may also be a sweet takeover target and has been mentioned periodically as such in business journals.
Two More:
Fidelity National Financial 'A' (NYSE: FNF) P/E = 9.96, P/S = 0.67, P/B = 1.62, yield = 4.94% I do not own this stock but I have been tracking it for a year. The numbers speak for themselves. Looking at it's ten year chart indicates it has generally demonstrated consistant growth. Yesterday it closed at $24.26 off 3 cents. FNF is a title insurance company, which explains it's high valuation during the recent boom years, but now that the housing market has come back down to earth FNF's stock is worthy of consideration.
Old Republic International (NYSE: ORI) P/E = 11.59, P/S = 1.41, P/B = 1.23, yield = 2.70% Another insurance company that has been around a long time. I picked it from my watch list for possible addition to yours. It has a profit margin higher than the P/E of 14.49%. Given that It's has a capitalization is only $5.14 billion, it could easily be acquired by a larger company seeking predictable earnings and growth. The 52 week price variation is $3.66 so this is a stable company for uncertain times. Yesterday it closed at $22.23 down pennies.
Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.
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