barrons posts
Posted Jul 6th 2009 2:20PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Newspapers, Rants and raves, Workspace, Technology, Recession

When I picked up my copy of Barron's weekly business journal from the front lawn this weekend I immediately felt something was different -- the weight of the journal and the thickness were definitely reduced by my measure. As a big fan of Barron's I thought, oh no, they are in trouble too.
When I examined it I found that the July 4 edition was a scant 32 pages. Last week's June 29 edition was 40 pages -- whoa --
a 20% reduction! That's a big reduction.
I keep my old copies of Barron's, so I was able to go back in time a ways to see if this was trend or an anomaly. First off I realized that the journal does fluctuate in length from week to week seemingly with the average being about 44 pages in the past few months. Then I went back further and noticed the trend was moving down. I thought well maybe it was the time if year, and of course the economy had to affect it too.
Continue reading Barron's struggling like everyone else
Posted May 26th 2009 11:40AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Major movement, Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Options
The shares of First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) have started the week on a rocky note. Not only did Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. downgrade the stock from Market Perform to Underperform, the alternative energy issue was also the topic of a skeptical Barron's article over the weekend.
In a note to clients, brokerage firm Friedman cited weak polysilicon prices and the stock's overrich valuation for its downgrade. FSLR closed last Friday at $191.72 per share, compared to Friedman's price target of $110.
Meanwhile, the cautious Barron's write up [subscription required] observes that the Intersolar trade show begins Wednesday in Munich, and pits FSLR against many lower-priced rivals. "One leading customer says it will ditch First Solar's 'thin-film' panels if crystalline silicon alternatives keep getting cheaper.
That seems likely. Silicon prices are expected to drop another 30% by year end. First Solar profits -- and its shares -- could get cut in half," commented the financial paper.
Continue reading First Solar gaps lower on downgrade, bearish Barron's article
Posted Apr 22nd 2009 5:15PM by Andrea Chalupa

Will financial reporting ever have a Woodward and Bernstein, the two metro desk Washington Post reporters who broke the Watergate Scandal? After attending last night's panel on Financial Journalism Under Fire: Did We Do Our Job?, hosted by the New York Financial Writers Association, the answer is clear: no. (Changes may and should happen, and I'll touch on a few of those).
I have a theory that if you took a psychological assessment of a sports writer, a political reporter, and a financial writer to see who was the most cynical, the answer would most definitely be the financial writer. They're reporting on an industry ruled by greed and people who make more money in a year than they'll see in a lifetime. The system is just too large, too shady, and too encouraged to be bad in the name of profits (deregulated) that reporting on any of this would be best reserved for some hippie outlet like Mother Jones, not the respectable Wall Street Journal. Big scoops in finance usually involve mergers and acquisitions, company and exec failures -- going after anything else is cute idealism. (In fact, someone last night compared it to steroids and baseball -- you don't want to know where those home runs are coming from, you just want to enjoy the game).
Continue reading Financial media mourns its Pulitzer
Posted Mar 9th 2009 4:00PM by Jon Ogg
Filed under: General Electric (GE), Citigroup Inc. (C), Bank of America (BAC), Genentech Inc (DNA), Wells Fargo (WFC)

We had the possibility of three or four big mergers today and no major macroeconomic news to rock us down other than added overseas selling. But a general lack of enthusiasm and additional selling from the public kept today from chasing the late Friday stock market gains. Even a
slighty less pessimistic Nouriel Roubini, a.k.a. "Dr. Doom," failed to inspire any contrarian thoughts. Despite this, there were many winning stocks and sectors.
Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
Dow 6,523.48 -103.46 (-1.56%)
S&P 500 676.53 -6.85 (-1.00%)
Nasdaq 1,268.64 -25.21 (-1.95%)
Top Analyst CallsContinue reading Closing Bell: Merger Mania fails to wake buyers (BAC, C, GE, DNA, GERN, HGSI, WFC)
Posted Feb 9th 2009 11:15AM by Zac Bissonnette
Filed under: Television

Back in August of 2007,
Barron's Bill Alpert slammed Jim Cramer's stock-picking abilities in a
cover story (subscription required). At the time, Alpert reported that "Over the past two years, viewers holding Cramer's stocks would be up 12% while the Dow rose 22% and the S&P 500 16%, according to a record of 1,300 of the CNBC star's Buy recommendations compiled by YourMoneyWatch.com, a Website run by a retired stock analyst and loyal Cramer-watcher."
Now Alpert is back for more. In the latest issue of Barron's, he
writes (subscription required) that "Cramer's recommendations underperform the market by most measures. From May to December of last year, for example, the market lost about 30%. Heeding Cramer's Buys and Sells would have added another five percentage points to that loss, according to our latest tally."
Continue reading Barron's slams Jim Cramer again
Posted Feb 7th 2009 11:08AM by Peter Cohan
Filed under: Magazines, Market matters, Money and Finance Today, Personal finance
CNBC's Jim Cramer has an audience of 600,000 for his Mad Money. But Barron's has gone to great lengths to investigate how his stock picks have performed and it has concluded that they lag the market averages by about five percentage points. Specifically, Barron's concluded that from May to December of 2008, the S&P 500 lost about 30% and "heeding Cramer's Buys and Sells would have added another five percentage points to that loss."
Cramer's Sells do better than his Buys. Specifically, his Sells outperformed the market on the downside by five percentage points while his Buys lost up to 10 percentage points more than the market. One finance professor estimated using options-market activity that betting against Cramer's Buy recommendations can yield 25% in a month.
Continue reading Are Cramer's stock picks five percentage points worse than the market?
Posted Jan 26th 2009 12:12PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Forecasts, Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron Corp (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), BP p.l.c. ADS (BP), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Serious Money, Oil

Oil prices have come down over $100 a barrel in the last six months, and so have oil stocks. How many people out there would have lost their house, not due to the reasons we've become accustomed, but due to betting the wrong way on oil? How many out there thought oil would stay near $147 a barrel rather than drop to the mid $30s in six months? I admit I might have been one of those people. Oil is currently trading in the mid $40s.
I have been paying about $2 a gallon for premium gasoline in Southern California -- sometimes a little higher, sometimes a little lower -- but a far cry from the $4.85 I paid in the summer. I can't even believe my eyes or my wallet relief. Five dollar gas is but a memory. We should all keep that in mind because we all know it is coming back to a gas station near you. We just don't know when.
This week's cover story in
Barron's,
"Big Oil's a Buy" (subscription required), highlights seven companies with varying degrees of support. The author, Dimitra Defotis, discusses companies with depressed stock prices, which may go lower; and with: relatively solid dividends; the possibility that mergers and acquisitions might be on the horizon; and stock buy-backs options. The four key stocks Defotis likes are XOM, TOT, BP and PBR. For example, XOM was chosen because of superior management and stacks of cash; PBR because of its reserves. Defotis questions the debt levels and access to new reserves of COP and RDS.
Continue reading Serious Money: Barron's pumping oil again!
Posted Oct 6th 2008 1:01PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Major movement, Analyst reports, Good news, Magazines, Chicago Merc Exch Hld'A' (CME), Options, Technical Analysis
CME Group (NASDAQ:
CME -
option chain) is one of the few stocks rising today after
an article in the latest Barron's called CME one of its top picks to weather the current storm, because it can generate a lot of cash in a tight credit environment. Even if CME doesn't rise in the next few months, this kind of sentiment could help the stock at least maintain its current price. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on CME.
CME opened this morning at $358.00 So far today the stock has hit a low of $353.63 and a high of $384.99. As of 12:35, CME is trading at $371.00, up $8.70 (2.4%). The chart for CME looks neutral and
S&P gives CME a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October
bull-put credit spread below the $280 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.5% return in just two weeks as long as CME is above $280 at October expiration. CME would have to fall by more than 24% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade
here.
CME hasn't been below $282 at all in the past year and has shown support around $350 recently.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in CME.Posted Sep 2nd 2008 10:15AM by Zac Bissonnette
Filed under: Scandals

Barron's takes a
blistering look (subscription required) at
Bidz.com (NASDAQ:
BIDZ) and its executives' long history of relations with shady characters and, possibly, organized crime. You can read the Barron's piece for all the details but here are some key words: fencing, gambling, fencing, strip clubs, "oral copulation with a person under 14 through force or fear," porn shops, prostitution, etc.
But wait: does any of that really matter? There's an argument to be made that if the company is solidly profitable, which it appears to be, and has reasonably sound corporate governance practices, then all those past relationships are just noise that, if anything, present a buying opportunity.
The problem, to me at least, is that there's plenty of other stuff at Bidz that doesn't quite add up. Back in March, ex-con turned fraud fighter Sam E. Antar raised questions about the
company's accounting on his blog, and Andrew Left also seems to
focus on the company's inventory issues.
Without getting into financial jargon, I can't figure out what makes Bidz so special: it reports strong sales and earnings -- much stronger returns than industry leader
Blue Nile (NASDAQ:
NILE) -- and Bidz's website is incredibly unimpressive. When you look at the quality of the site and then compare it to the impressive financials, something smells bad.
Caveat emptor.
Posted Aug 30th 2008 10:08AM by Peter Cohan
Filed under: Blackstone Group L.P (BX)
Were you wondering which sector of the U.S. economy would be next to take a dive from the year-old credit crunch? Well look no further, because Barron's [subscription required] reports that private equity firms like Apollo Global Management, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, and Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) are hurting gators thanks to too much borrowed money and the weak financial performance of the companies they bought. And business is way down, Barron's reports that through mid-August, the 2008 total deal volume "stood at $67 billion, versus more than $400 billion in the corresponding 2007 period."
This does not come as a surprise to me. In February 2007, I appeared on CNBC arguing that private equity had peaked. And I began to question its long-term viability back in August 2006 when Barron's Alan Abelson quoted my thoughts on the matter. The basic problem is that when debt is cheap, private equity booms and when it starts selling itself to the public, investors should hold onto their wallets for dear life. People who own private equity firms tap their superior knowledge of the coming downturn to convince the public to bail them out by buying their stock.
Barron's cites -- as evidence of trouble in private equity land -- examples of the declining value of the publicly traded debt in companies that private equity took private at too-high prices with too much borrowed money. It writes that bonds of "many companies taken private in the past two years have plunged to 50 cents on the dollar or less, signaling that investors fear they won't be fully repaid. Many companies that were the subjects of buyouts a year or two ago are so grossly over-leveraged that they're struggling simply to pay interest. If they were to default, debt investors would be stung, but equity investors would be even worse off; the value of their holdings would be deeply impaired or wiped out."
Continue reading Barron's: Private equity is next shoe to drop
Posted Aug 22nd 2008 10:05AM by Jim Cramer
Filed under: Newspapers, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Market matters, Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), General Mills (GIS), Cramer on BloggingStocks
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says news is not being properly disseminated, and some people are getting an unfair edge. I love how easily I am misunderstood by people who have about one-tenth the history I have in the markets. I love it, because their dogmatic criticism of me is so unfounded and anti-historical, not to mention totally un-rigorous, that I get a kick out of reading it.
I am talking, of course, about the outrageous trading in
Fannie (NYSE:
FNM) (
Cramer's Take) and
Freddie (NYSE:
FRE) (
Cramer's Take) over the last few days.
My beef: For most of the last 80 years, when there was "unusual activity" in a stock, as you would certainly have to say there has been here, the New York Stock Exchange or the company or even the SEC would call a halt in trading, the reason being that it is clear there is news that is not being properly disseminated. Halting trading is something that is done to level the playing field, to be sure that some don't know something that others don't.
Here the disinformation has been so ludicrous, the lack of disclosure so ridiculous, the misdirection so nonstop that it is simply inconceivable that everyone has the same information available to trade on. That's the darned law, for heaven's sake. It isn't something I made up. We aren't supposed to have situations where some know information and others don't. Given the nature of the talks involving so many parties and the leaks that are happening left and right, does this feel like a place where the average investor is getting a fair shake? I don't think so. How anyone could even disagree with that notion is the height of naiveté.
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Halt this unfair trading in Fannie and Freddie
Posted Aug 18th 2008 1:12PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Major movement, Good news, Broadcom Corp'A' (BRCM), Options, Technical Analysis, Smartphones
Broadcom (NASDAQ:
BRCM -
option chain) shares are moving higher today after
an article in Barron's over the weekend said the stock could rise as much as 40 percent as the chipmaker enters the market for smartphones. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on BRCM.
BRCM opened this morning at $28.23. So far today the stock has hit a low of $27.76 and a high of $28.39. As of 12:20, BRCM is trading at $27.86, up 40 cents(1.5%). The chart for BRCM looks bullish and
S&P gives BRCM a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November
bull-put credit spread below the $20 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 13.6% return in just three months as long as BRCM is above $20 at November expiration. Broadcom would have to fall by more than 27% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade
here.
BRCM hasn't been below $20 since April and has shown support around $23 recently.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in BRCM.Posted Jul 28th 2008 2:53PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Chasing Value, 25 Stocks for Next 25 Years, Stocks to Buy, Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG), Technology, Best Stocks for 2008

This week's
Barron's (subscription required) finally had
Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:
ISRG) on its cover, and cover it it did, but with a wet blanket.
The stock is down in early trading today, but that is probably warranted given the runup last week when it jumped $52 in one day after it reported one more mind boggling quarter. I only exaggerate slightly as the company beat estimates by 10 cents a share and increased margins in all areas, when I reported then,
Chasing Value: Intuitive Surgical beat the street AGAIN!The Barron's story,
Surgical Robot Cuts Both Ways by Andrew Barry questions the stock's valuation and the company's projections of expanding sales and service figures.
Mr. Barry points out that the stock is trading at sky high valuations and that any disappointment could result in a 25% drop in the stock price. I would remind ISRG fans and stock watchers that this has happened on many occasions without any bad news. It had reached a high around $360 per share and then traded down until it took a dive into the $240s when Wall Street decided that the slowing economy and tighter fiscal restraint on the part of hospital administrators would dampen ISRG's prospects in the second half of 2008.
Continue reading Barron's covers Intuitive Surgical with wet blanket
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