BloggingStocks http://www.bloggingstocks.com BloggingStocks http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/media/feedlogo.gif BloggingStocks http://www.bloggingstocks.com en-us Copyright 2012 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/<![CDATA[Stocks at Two-Year High: What Lies Ahead?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/12/13/stocks-at-two-year-high-the-way-forward/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/12/13/stocks-at-two-year-high-the-way-forward/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/12/13/stocks-at-two-year-high-the-way-forward/#commentsFiled under: ,

The S&P 500 is now at a two-year high, closing last week at 1,240.40. The index last hit that level in September 2008.

Some analysts believe that the market trades ahead of what it sees in the economy six months out. If that's true, Wall Street expects improved employment, a moderately rising GDP, and early signs of a real estate recovery.

Continue reading Stocks at Two-Year High: What Lies Ahead?

Stocks at Two-Year High: What Lies Ahead? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 13 Dec 2010 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bear marketbull marketfeaturedinthenewsSP 500unemploymentMon, 13 Dec 2010 10:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Bearish? Try on the iShares Barclays 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/09/14/bearish-try-on-the-ishares-barclays-20-year-treasury-bond-etf/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/09/14/bearish-try-on-the-ishares-barclays-20-year-treasury-bond-etf/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/09/14/bearish-try-on-the-ishares-barclays-20-year-treasury-bond-etf/#commentsAre you confused yet? On Monday, the U.S. equity markets added to the September rally after better-than-expected Chinese growth numbers and less- stringent-than-feared Basel III requirements. We are now sitting right at the top end of the summer range in the S&P at 1,122. Bearish speculators will know very soon if they are wrong. A close above the 1,125 to 1,130 level means it's time to cover. This provides a very high risk/reward entry point on the short side.

Yesterday's market action continues to confound. The S&P 500 climbed 1.11%, while Treasuries also rallied. The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) jumped 0.49% to $102.82, despite the fact that this was supposedly a "risk on" day. Something is going to give. Either we are going to see a major, sustainable rally in equities, or there is going to be a savage sell-off. There is too much confusion right now.

Continue reading Bearish? Try on the iShares Barclays 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF

Bearish? Try on the iShares Barclays 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 14 Sep 2010 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bear marketfeaturediShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFtltTue, 14 Sep 2010 09:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Drop in Treasury Bond Yields Forecasts a Bear Market for Stocks]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/08/11/drop-in-treasury-bond-yields-forecasts-a-bear-market-for-stocks/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/08/11/drop-in-treasury-bond-yields-forecasts-a-bear-market-for-stocks/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/08/11/drop-in-treasury-bond-yields-forecasts-a-bear-market-for-stocks/#commentsFiled under: , ,

There's an old adage: When bond prices go up, stock prices go down, and vice versa. Over the past three months, Treasury bond yields have taken a big hit (bond prices and bond yields move in the opposite direction). The benchmark 10-year bond yield dropped from 4.01% in April to its present 2.79%.

David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff has researched bond yields and their corresponding effect on the stock market. According to an article on CNBC.com, Rosenberg found that if yields fall more than 1.20%, a bear market in stocks is just a couple of months away. He cites the bear markets of 1990, 2000 and 2007 as examples.

Continue reading Drop in Treasury Bond Yields Forecasts a Bear Market for Stocks

Drop in Treasury Bond Yields Forecasts a Bear Market for Stocks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 11 Aug 2010 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bear marketbond yieldsbonds up stocks downfeaturedfederal reserveinthenewstreasurytreasury bondsWed, 11 Aug 2010 09:30:00 EST<![CDATA[The Dow Rises, Falls, and Sometimes Meanders for a Long Time]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/06/02/the-dow-rises-falls-and-sometimes-meanders-for-a-long-time/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/06/02/the-dow-rises-falls-and-sometimes-meanders-for-a-long-time/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/06/02/the-dow-rises-falls-and-sometimes-meanders-for-a-long-time/#commentsFiled under: ,

There are bull markets and bear markets, and while each often display a pattern that matches historical precedents, there are those 'irregular periods' that break the mold. Moreover, investors need to remain cognizant of that fact that an irregular period can be long. Very long.

For example, consider the period beginning in the mid-1960s. The Dow crossed the 1,000 mark for the first time in January 1966. President Lyndon B. Johnson (D-Texas) was in the White House then, and he was in the process of escalating the war in Vietnam. Inflation rose, due to ramping defense and social spending. The Dow soon dropped below 1,000.

Continue reading The Dow Rises, Falls, and Sometimes Meanders for a Long Time

The Dow Rises, Falls, and Sometimes Meanders for a Long Time originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 02 Jun 2010 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bear marketbull marketdowrallyWed, 02 Jun 2010 17:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Cramer on BloggingStocks: Not too late to sell ]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/09/02/cramer-on-bloggingstocks-not-too-late-to-sell/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/09/02/cramer-on-bloggingstocks-not-too-late-to-sell/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/09/02/cramer-on-bloggingstocks-not-too-late-to-sell/#commentsFiled under: , , , , ,

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the rally hasn't been a sham, but a bigger pullback would be reasonable.

I love it! Suddenly it's S&P 900 or bust! Nothing underneath us. The rally revealed as a sham. Even better, a rally in a bear market!

Now we are talking.

A 45% rally in a bear market. Maybe China had an 85% rally in a bear market! We may have had a 7,500-point rally in a bear market since I started trading 30 years ago.

I am even thinking that we have never had a bull market!

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Not too late to sell

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Not too late to sell originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 02 Sep 2009 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>aaplbear marketBearMarketcrmfeaturedintcjim cramerJimCramermsftrallyWed, 02 Sep 2009 10:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Reuters poll: Recession to last one or more years]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/04/27/reuters-poll-recession-to-last-one-or-more-years/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/04/27/reuters-poll-recession-to-last-one-or-more-years/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/04/27/reuters-poll-recession-to-last-one-or-more-years/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

The great debate: Have we reached bottom in the financial crisis, or is there more to come? It's a multi-million dollar question.

Reuters conducted a poll on April 21-27 to get feedback form analysts across Europe and the US. The sobering conclusion was that the recession could last a year or two more. Most said that the worst is yet to come. Their findings stated: "Financial and macroeconomic stability are still some way off and we don't yet have the foundation for a solid recovery."

Continue reading Reuters poll: Recession to last one or more years

Reuters poll: Recession to last one or more years originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 27 Apr 2009 18:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bear marketbear market rallyBearMarketBearMarketRallybull marketBullMarketrecessionMon, 27 Apr 2009 18:10:00 EST<![CDATA[Renowned bear says market will rise 30% this year]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/04/14/renowned-bear-says-market-will-rise-30-this-year/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/04/14/renowned-bear-says-market-will-rise-30-this-year/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/04/14/renowned-bear-says-market-will-rise-30-this-year/#commentsFiled under:

Steve Leuthold earned an astounding 74% return for investors in his Grizzly Short Fund last year betting, as the name would suggest, that stocks were in for a grizzly beating -- which they were.

But now Leuthold has turned bullish, and is predicting that the S&P 500 will hit 1,100 this year -- which would represent an increase of more than 30% from the the current price.

Continue reading Renowned bear says market will rise 30% this year

Renowned bear says market will rise 30% this year originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 14 Apr 2009 16:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bear marketinthenewsSteve LeutholdSteveLeutholdTue, 14 Apr 2009 16:40:00 EST<![CDATA[Roubini the bear is forecasting more of the same, banking shocks and bad news]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/04/08/roubini-the-bear-is-forecasting-more-of-the-same-banking-shocks/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/04/08/roubini-the-bear-is-forecasting-more-of-the-same-banking-shocks/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/04/08/roubini-the-bear-is-forecasting-more-of-the-same-banking-shocks/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University, was one of the first to predict the collapse of the U.S. banking system and the current financial crisis. Well, he's back in the news with his forecasts.

What does he see in our future? More bad news. The bear market is not over, says Roubini. The stimulus package will slow the rate of contraction, but that will take time. Macro news, earnings reports and financial shocks will be worse than expected.

Continue reading Roubini the bear is forecasting more of the same, banking shocks and bad news

Roubini the bear is forecasting more of the same, banking shocks and bad news originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 08 Apr 2009 12:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bear marketBearMarketMeredith WhitneyMeredithWhitneyRoubiniWed, 08 Apr 2009 12:10:00 EST<![CDATA[Today's technical outlook: Still looking for a signal]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/03/10/todays-technical-outlook-still-looking-for-a-signal/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/03/10/todays-technical-outlook-still-looking-for-a-signal/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/03/10/todays-technical-outlook-still-looking-for-a-signal/#commentsFiled under: ,

Technicians continue to bemoan that, despite the oversold internal indicators and sentiment numbers that show record levels of fear, the market continues to sell off. Normally at such oversold levels of the key indicators we should expect a rally -- but not lately.

A rally may be overdue but, so far, all we seem to get is one or two days up and then down again. The mood is best described by a Standard & Poor's market strategist who on Friday said, "We think the market is in desperate need of a washout to at least turn the tide for awhile back to the upside. We have been looking for a counter-trend rally, but all we are seeing are one-day wonders."

So where is the bottom -- or bottoms?

Continue reading Today's technical outlook: Still looking for a signal

Today's technical outlook: Still looking for a signal originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 10 Mar 2009 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bear marketBearMarketchangewave researchChangewaveResearchfibonaccifibonacci numbersFibonacciNumberss and p 500sam collinsSamCollinsSAndP500Tue, 10 Mar 2009 09:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Jobless rate highest since ... right before the greatest bull run in history]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/03/08/jobless-rate-highest-since-right-before-the-greatest-bull-ru/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/03/08/jobless-rate-highest-since-right-before-the-greatest-bull-ru/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/03/08/jobless-rate-highest-since-right-before-the-greatest-bull-ru/#commentsFiled under: , ,

The headlines are terrifying. The jobless rate is the highest it's been since 1983 -- 8.1% -- and it could get worse.

"We'll be at 10% unemployment by year end," Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, told the Wall Street Journal (subscription required). "What's going to stop it?"

The gloom and doom crew has been winning the day lately, but here's the question: What does it all mean for stocks?

Go back to 1983 for the answer -- four years after BusinessWeek had declared the permanent death of equities. That year marked essentially the beginning of the greatest bull run in history. From 1982 through 1999, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared from 800 to over 11,000.

Continue reading Jobless rate highest since ... right before the greatest bull run in history

Jobless rate highest since ... right before the greatest bull run in history originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 08 Mar 2009 14:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Bear MarketBull Marketdeath of equitiesJoseph LaVorgnaStock MarketUnemploymentSun, 08 Mar 2009 14:10:00 EST<![CDATA[Today's technical outlook: Shorts may feel the squeeze soon]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/19/todays-technical-outlook-shorts-may-feel-the-squeeze-soon/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/19/todays-technical-outlook-shorts-may-feel-the-squeeze-soon/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/02/19/todays-technical-outlook-shorts-may-feel-the-squeeze-soon/#commentsFiled under: , ,

One by one, the key indices appear to be breaking their support lines.

The Dow Industrials were the first to break, but the S&P 500 has also fallen through its support zone at 800 to 820, and so has the NYSE Composite. Only the Nasdaq is holding above its January low while the others are in a full test of their November bear market bottoms.

But despite the full attack on the bear market low, it would be dangerous to assume that a market sell-off is inevitable.

Continue reading Today's technical outlook: Shorts may feel the squeeze soon

Today's technical outlook: Shorts may feel the squeeze soon originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 19 Feb 2009 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bear marketBearMarketdjiadouble bottomDoubleBottominthenewsmcafeenasdaqnyse compositeNyseComposites and p 500sam collinsSamCollinsSAndP500short squeezeShortSqueezetechnical analysisTechnicalAnalysisThu, 19 Feb 2009 09:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Dow 8,000 stops by to visit again; what's the next level to watch out for?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/21/dow-8-000-stops-by-to-visit-again-whats-the-next-level-to-watc/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/21/dow-8-000-stops-by-to-visit-again-whats-the-next-level-to-watc/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/01/21/dow-8-000-stops-by-to-visit-again-whats-the-next-level-to-watc/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

Once again, the Dow has registered a lame, listless rally and then moved back below 8,000.

For those investors who may not follow indices closely, the 8,000 level has psychological but not technical support. The latter measures such things as the number of investors who are buying / selling, whether investors are committing new money to the market etc.

Right now a battle is taking place between bulls and bears at the institutional investor level: the bears argue the worst economic news stemming from the financial crisis is yet to come; the bulls say that the worst news is behind us, and that government stimulus, fiscal and monetary, will both stabilize the financial system and get the U.S. economy moving again.

The Dow Tuesday closed below 8,000 at 7,949. If the bears can keep the Dow below 8,000, then push it through 7,800, then 7,600, it will not be a pleasant time for investors.

Some institutions may continue to hand-sit until mid-February, preferring to await the Obama Administration's announcement of the exact size of the fiscal stimulus package, now believed to be approaching $725-850 billion.

Continue reading Dow 8,000 stops by to visit again; what's the next level to watch out for?

Dow 8,000 stops by to visit again; what's the next level to watch out for? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 21 Jan 2009 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bear marketbull marketDJIADowfeaturedresistancesupportWed, 21 Jan 2009 10:30:00 EST<![CDATA[2008 Trades Gone Bad #3: Buying non-durables]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/24/2008-trades-gone-bad-3-buying-non-durables/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/24/2008-trades-gone-bad-3-buying-non-durables/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/24/2008-trades-gone-bad-3-buying-non-durables/#commentsFiled under: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Typically, when the economy enters a recession, companies that are in the consumer non-durable sector, i.e., consumer staples, see their stocks trade higher as money flows into bulletproof subsectors of the economy that don't suffer from spending cuts.

Companies like Proctor & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Heinz (NYSE: HNZ), Hormel (NYSE: HRL), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), General Mills (NYSE: GIS), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Pepsi (NYSE: PEP), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL) and even Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B), which was down a whopping 49% before getting a year-end bounce.

I think Warren needs to get off TV and get back to work.

My point here is that all of these fortress names got beat up to the tune of 30% to 50% when they were supposed to be the go-to names that would put in a stealth rally in a bear market.

Seems the kitchen and bathroom stocks didn't work this time around.

Bryan Perry is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.




2008 Trades Gone Bad #3: Buying non-durables originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 24 Dec 2008 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bear marketBearMarketbryan perryBryanPerryHeinzhnznon-durablesrecessionworst tradesworst trades of 2008WorstTradesWorstTradesOf2008Wed, 24 Dec 2008 14:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Economists see longest U.S. recession since 1947, survey says]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/10/economists-see-longest-u-s-recession-since-1947-survey-says/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/10/economists-see-longest-u-s-recession-since-1947-survey-says/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/12/10/economists-see-longest-u-s-recession-since-1947-survey-says/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

The world's largest economy is on pace to record its longest recession since 1947, a survey released Wednesday predicted.

A decline in consumer spending will push U.S. GDP down 2.4% in Q1 2009, and another 0.5% in Q2 2009, according to 51 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

If the above occurs, it would be the longest U.S. recession since 1947, so says economist Richard Felson, who did not participate in the Bloomberg survey.

"It would be a truly negative circumstance, the weakest economic conditions since the end of World War II and the weakest job market conditions since the 1981-1982 Reagan recession," Felson said. "A Q3 2009 recovery would give us a 20-22 month long recession, which is just dreadful. But you can understand why, with housing, manufacturing, exports, business investment, and consumer spending all trending in the wrong direction. It would be the 'mother of all contractions.' "

Continue reading Economists see longest U.S. recession since 1947, survey says

Economists see longest U.S. recession since 1947, survey says originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 10 Dec 2008 14:32:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bear marketbusiness investmentconsumer spendingfeaturedfiscal stimulusgdpinthenewsjobsU.S. economyunemploymentWed, 10 Dec 2008 14:32:00 EST<![CDATA[Aren't stocks cheap now? Yes, but... ]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/13/arent-stocks-cheap-now-yes-but/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/13/arent-stocks-cheap-now-yes-but/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/13/arent-stocks-cheap-now-yes-but/#commentsFiled under: , ,

One hears the mantra almost daily, often from friends and relatives:

Aren't stocks cheap? Look at those low P/Es! GE is at $15 a share, Intel below $14, Du Pont at about $27. My goodness, the Dow is down to 8,200. Isn't now a good time to buy stocks?

It is, if you believe the Dow is forming a bottom and/or that the worst of the financial crisis is behind us, and the U.S. economy is set to recover.

However, the alternate viewpoint argues that the Dow has not bottomed, could very well fall another 1,000 points, with panic selling (known as 'capitulation' in Wall Street circles) taking the Dow to levels well below that, at least for a short period of time, possibly longer.

Hence, purchasing shares for the first time now (or adding to existing positions) given the latter scenario would create an immediate 10% loss, or possibly more.

Monitor corporate earnings and job growth

What's a better tack to take concerning when to buy more shares? Monitor U.S. corporate earnings and job growth.

Continue reading Aren't stocks cheap now? Yes, but...

Aren't stocks cheap now? Yes, but... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 13 Nov 2008 13:46:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bear marketbull marketcapitulationcorporate earningsDJIADowearningsearnings estimateearnings guidanceinthenewsjob creationjobspeprice per earningsU.S. Labor DepartmentThu, 13 Nov 2008 13:46:00 EST<![CDATA[Is now a good time to sell 20% of your stock portfolio?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/10/is-now-a-good-time-to-sell-20-of-your-stock-portfolio/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/10/is-now-a-good-time-to-sell-20-of-your-stock-portfolio/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/10/is-now-a-good-time-to-sell-20-of-your-stock-portfolio/#commentsFiled under: , , , , ,

Talk to the stock market's bulls and they argue the Dow is forming a bottom at / near 8,000.

Talk to the bears and they say you're dreaming, if you think the Dow has bottomed at 8,000.

What's the typical investor to do?

Let's do a condensed, cross-methodology analysis to see if we can arrive at an informed investment decision / conclusion.

Technical Indicators: Bearish.
Fundamental Indicators: Bearish.
Monetary Policy: Officials are doing everything they can to stimulate growth. Bullish.
Fiscal Policy: More fiscal stimulus should be on the way, in both the U.S. and aboard. Bullish.

Credit Markets: Recovering, but still strained, with still too much interbank distrust / fear. Bearish.

Geopolitical Risk: On average, it's about the same as it has been during the past 3-5 years. Neutral.

Conclusion: The view from here argues that the outlook for U.S. stocks / stock market is bearish at least for the next six months, and most likely for much of 2009. Further, if Dow 8,000 doesn't hold, the market could fall much more, particularly after 2009 earnings estimates are revised downward, as they are expected to be.

Continue reading Is now a good time to sell 20% of your stock portfolio?

Is now a good time to sell 20% of your stock portfolio? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 10 Nov 2008 10:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bear marketbear market rallybearsbull marketbullsdead cat bounceDJIADowinthenewsMon, 10 Nov 2008 10:40:00 EST<![CDATA['Heavy' DJIA appears poised to re-test our old friend 8,000 again]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/07/heavy-djia-appears-poised-to-re-test-our-old-friend-8-000-agai/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/07/heavy-djia-appears-poised-to-re-test-our-old-friend-8-000-agai/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/07/heavy-djia-appears-poised-to-re-test-our-old-friend-8-000-agai/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

The epic battle between the stock market's bulls and bears continues. The Dow Thursday registered yet another difficult day, down 443 points to 8,695.79. It seems like just a couple days ago the Dow was above 9,600. No, wait, that was just a couple of days ago!

Don't be swayed by a mild market rally today: the Dow has declined about 10% in two days, and a mild rise could be merely short covering ahead of the weekend.

From a technical analysis standpoint the view is not pleasant as the Dow is well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. There's not enough buy side pressure to propel the Dow higher, but the Dow is still not oversold, with a relative strength index (rsi) of 42.

Further, the fundamentals picture does not look any better. Declining earnings and zero job growth -- the U.S. economy lost another 240,000 jobs in October after losing a revised 289,000 in September - are the main reasons yours truly has taken pains to underscore that if the Dow can hold 8,000 by the time 'normal' credit flows resume, that will be a moral victory.

Continue reading 'Heavy' DJIA appears poised to re-test our old friend 8,000 again

'Heavy' DJIA appears poised to re-test our old friend 8,000 again originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 07 Nov 2008 11:11:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bear marketcorporate earningsDJIADowDow Jones Industrial AveragefeaturedgdpjobsU.S. economyunemploymentFri, 07 Nov 2008 11:11:00 EST<![CDATA[What if the Dow didn't fall, but also didn't rise, for 10 years?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/10/28/what-if-the-dow-didnt-fall-but-also-didnt-rise-for-10-years/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/10/28/what-if-the-dow-didnt-fall-but-also-didnt-rise-for-10-years/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/10/28/what-if-the-dow-didnt-fall-but-also-didnt-rise-for-10-years/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

Investors have become accustomed to bull markets -- long periods of stock price appreciation, i.e. a rising stock market. That's been the norm since the start of publicly-traded stocks in the United States, and certainly a feature of markets in the post-1980 period.

Provided that the U.S. economy is growing in a sustainable way and increasing its productive capacity, bear markets have been the exception, the momentary pull-back, when one takes a long view of the investment horizon.

The current bear market can be seen in that light, again, provided the nation's economy is on a sustainable growth track with an increasing productive capacity.

Still, the key in the above has been the U.S. economy (obviously). Absent a healthy economy, different Dow case studies pop up.

For example, what if the Dow didn't fall -- and didn't rise -- for seven years? In other words, a sideways Dow where no progress is made? It seems like a remote possibility, but that's exactly what occurred from early 1966, when the Dow fell below 1,000, until late 1972, when the Dow reclaimed the psychologically-significant 1,000 level.

Continue reading What if the Dow didn't fall, but also didn't rise, for 10 years?

What if the Dow didn't fall, but also didn't rise, for 10 years? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 28 Oct 2008 17:46:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bear marketbull marketcorrectionDJIADow Jones Industrial Averagefeaturedgdppeprice per earningssustainable growthU.S. economyTue, 28 Oct 2008 17:46:00 EST<![CDATA[Modest (and appropriate) expectations: Think holding Dow 8,000 ]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/10/09/modest-and-appropriate-expectations-think-holding-dow-8-000/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/10/09/modest-and-appropriate-expectations-think-holding-dow-8-000/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/10/09/modest-and-appropriate-expectations-think-holding-dow-8-000/#commentsFiled under: , , , ,

With the nationalization of banks seemingly exceeding IPOs these days, to say that both developed and developing nations economic performance expectations are more-modest today than they were a year ago would be an understatement.

Still, investors would be wise to take a page from that playbook, as it relates to the Dow, and more broadly, to the U.S. stock market, so says economist Richard Felson.

Concentrating on the problem, not the inconvenience

Felson, who took pains to point out that he is not a market analyst or stock guru, nevertheless highlighted the importance of reining-in stock expectations: people who are 'looking for the market to rally,' or who look for a relatively quick turnaround in stocks in a quarter are missing the point.

"The purpose of the monetary and fiscal actions being taken is to maintain the financial system, so that there are stock markets, not to get the Dow to rise, or to create the next bull market," Felson said. "Investors need to keep sight of that fact." Today the Dow closed down 678 points to 8,579 and the S&P 500 was down 75 points to 909.

Continue reading Modest (and appropriate) expectations: Think holding Dow 8,000

Modest (and appropriate) expectations: Think holding Dow 8,000 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 09 Oct 2008 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bear marketDJIADow Jones Industrial AveragegdpinthenewsU.S. economyThu, 09 Oct 2008 17:30:00 EST<![CDATA[I want to buy something, but . . .]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/10/07/i-want-to-buy-something-but/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/10/07/i-want-to-buy-something-but/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/10/07/i-want-to-buy-something-but/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

I just spent the last hour or so looking around the market, trying to find something to buy. I haven't purchased a stock in a while. I'm in the mood. But, you know something, it's pretty tough out there, to state the very, very obvious.

I read a piece today by my colleague Sheldon Liber in which he takes Jim Cramer to task for being too bearish. Sheldon makes some great points. In fact, he inspired me to find something out there. Unfortunately, I came up empty. I mean, I was looking at adding some shares of Marvel (NYSE: MVL) to my existing position in that stock. To be honest, I felt more inclined to preserve the profits in that stock by selling out of the position. Yet, Marvel at under $30 isn't a bad buy, in my opinion. Still, I didn't feel like adding, and that felt completely anathema to my emotional mindset.

I then thought about Disney (NYSE: DIS) and General Electric (NYSE: GE). And Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO). Nothing felt right. Nothing. Why? Well, I just don't see the merit of adding to positions just yet. Simply put, I see us going down instead of up. The market action today in the major indexes is not encouraging at all.

It's funny, because this is a case of the two sides of the same story being right. Cramer is correct in that the selling is not over. Sheldon is correct about there being values out there. But things feel so troubled. I mean, why isn't Coke rallying with all the chaos? Yes, I know many investors are concerned about growth at the company, but shouldn't it be rocketing higher with a defensive premium? Puzzling.

Continue reading I want to buy something, but . . .

I want to buy something, but . . . originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 07 Oct 2008 15:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bear marketBearMarketCoca-ColaDISDisneyfeaturedGEGeneral ElectricGeneralElectricJim CramerJimCramerKOMarvelMVLSheldon LiberSheldonLiberTue, 07 Oct 2008 15:45:00 EST