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How Fannie and Freddie will fail

Henry Paulson is maneuvering himself into the history books by forcing Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) into a spiral of doom from which they can't recover. He had plenty of help from the directors and executives who sit atop them. But it's becoming clear that since Saturday's Barron's article, laying out the path to failure, events are spiraling out of Fannie and Freddie's control.

The anonymous senior government source in the Barron's article said that unless Fannie and Freddie could raise at least $10 billion each, the government would bail them out while wiping out common shareholders and eliminating the preferred dividend. This would lead to a sell off of bad loans, a split into smaller pieces, and maybe selling those pieces back to the public. All these activities are a government gift to Wall Street, which will get to do all these deals.

Events are following this predicted pattern as Fannie and Freddie struggle to raise capital. The New York Times reports that investors are not enthusiastic about the most recent efforts to raise capital by Freddie Mac. It reports that on Tuesday, Freddie Mac raised $3 billion in five-year debt but the "1.13 percentage points [premium] over the rate the federal government pays for comparable borrowing" was more than double the "0.6 points" premium it paid earlier in the year.

Continue reading How Fannie and Freddie will fail

Rogues gallery of banks block investor access to $330 billion

Bloomberg News reports that 10 of the biggest names in investment banking are blocking investors from getting their hands on their share of the $330 billion Auction Rate Securities (ARS) that they were told was as safe as a money market fund.

I first posted about this back in February and now it has 4,325 comments from people trying to get at their money. Bloomberg quotes one victim of frozen ARS syndrome: Franklin Biddar, a 65-year old real estate investor who can't get his $100,000. "I can't do anything," said Biddar, who was so eager to unlock his money that he was willing to accept 11 percent less than what he paid for the securities. "Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) got me into these securities that are supposed to be as safe as a money market, and now they won't get me out."

Here's a list of the banks involved in this money blocking operation and the volume of municipal ARSs they issued between 2001 and 2007:

Continue reading Rogues gallery of banks block investor access to $330 billion

Newspaper wrap-up: Verizon Wireless may acquire Alltel

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • Verizon Wireless, a joint venture of Vodafone Group Plc (NYSE: VOD) and Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE: VZ), is in talks to acquire Alltel Corp. in a deal valued at about $27B, the Wall Street Journal reported. If successful, the combined companies would create the largest cellphone company, and would be better positioned to compete against AT&T Inc (NYSE: T).
  • Gregory B. Penner, the son-in-law of Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE: WMT) chairman S. Robson Walton, is expected to join the company's board of directors, a move seen as the beginning of a leadership change at the company, according to the Wall Street Journal.
  • The Financial Times reported that Singaporean sovereign wealth fund Temasek refused to provide funds to Bear Stearns shortly before Bear's sale to JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM). Temasek reportedly refused the request for practical and political reasons.
  • Russia's Interior Ministry questioned the head of BP Plc's (NYSE: BP) Russian oil venture as part of a criminal investigation into possible large-scale tax evasion, the Financial Times reported.

Newspaper wrap-up: Host of factors could stop InBev from bidding for Anheuser

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • In part two of a series to help explain the reasons why The Bear Stearns Companies Inc (NYSE: BSC) collapsed, the Wall Street Journal said that executives believed they were about to turn a corner, but fear and rumors sent lenders, trading partners and clients running.
  • The Wall Street Journal also reported that a host of factors could derail InBev NV from bidding for Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc (NYSE: BUD), including the cultural differences between the two, protests by politicians over foreign ownership of a U.S. company during an election year and possible unrest from Anheuser distributors and employees.
  • Following the recent indictment of one of the bank's former senior executives, the Financial Times reported that UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) told members of its former private banking team not to travel to America. The restrictions suggest UBS is concerned investigations by the SEC may widen.
WEB SITES:
  • The latest set of photos that supposedly show parts of Apple Inc's (NASDAQ: AAPL) 3G iPhone, released by Dutch website iPhoneclub.nl, look identical to the previously released pictures that were supposedly photos of the 3G iPhone, Engadget reported.

Newspaper wrap-up: Blackstone Group, Apollo, to bid for Chemtura

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • Last December Chemtura Corporation (NYSE: CEM), a specialty chemicals company with a market cap of about $1.9B, said it might sell itself, and now The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and Apollo Management are in talks to buy the company, the Wall Street Journal reported.
  • In part one of a series to help explain the reasons why The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC) collapsed, the Wall Street Journal said that the troubled firm was torn apart by executives who couldn't agree on what course to take, including raising capital and slicing mortgage and related bonds from its inventory. And each of about six attempts to raise capital fell part.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • The American investor and Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK.A) chief Warren Buffett said the United States is already in a recession that is deeper and will last longer than the public expects, the Economic Times reported.
  • According to the Telegraph, Barclays Plc (NYSE: BCS) is planning to sell Barclays Life Assurance Company, its life assurance arm, which has over GBP7B of funds under management. Sources believe potential bidders for the unit may include Pearl, Swiss Reinsurance Company (OTC: SWCEY), General Re, Canada Life and XL Re. Market commentators believe that on an embedded value basis, the unit is currently valued at around GBP1B.

Newspaper wrap-up: Harris ponders future and considers selling

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • Harris Corporation (NYSE: HRS), concerned about its future growth, may see limited opportunity and may consider selling itself, the Wall Street Journal reported. If it does decide to sell, suitors could include Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN), BAE Systems Plc (OTC: BAESY) and Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC).
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that, in an attempt to toughen its regulation standards, SEC chairman Christopher Cox said earlier this week the agency would push Wall Street investment houses will have to reduce borrowing and rely less on short-term financing.
  • As part of plans to reduce costs and restore profit growth, people close to the situation said that Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) is likely to today identify up to $400B in non-core assets that could be sold. Additionally, the Financial Times reported that Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit will confirm his pledge to cut the bank's cost base by about 20% at a meeting with analysts today. Sources familiar with the matter believe Pandit will dismiss calls for a break-up of the company.
OTHER PAPERS:

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Last updated: December 05, 2008: 01:11 AM

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