The Wall Street Journal reported that, in an attempt to toughen its regulation standards, SEC chairman Christopher Cox said earlier this week the agency would push Wall Street investment houses will have to reduce borrowing and rely less on short-term financing.
As part of plans to reduce costs and restore profit growth, people close to the situation said that Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) is likely to today identify up to $400B in non-core assets that could be sold. Additionally, the Financial Times reported that Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit will confirm his pledge to cut the bank's cost base by about 20% at a meeting with analysts today. Sources familiar with the matter believe Pandit will dismiss calls for a break-up of the company.
Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) shares are falling today as an SEC official has warned that future investment banks that get into trouble may not get the same bailout that Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) did. Director of Trading and Markets at the SEC Eric Sirri told the House Investment and Insurance Subcommittee that the liquidity help given to BSC may not necessarily be repeated if another bank has trouble. These words have dragged down LEH in trading yesterday afternoon and so far today. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on LEH.
After hitting a one-year high of $82.05 in June, the stock hit a one-year low of $20.25 in March. This morning, LEH opened at $44.19. So far today the stock has hit a low of $41.67 and a high of $44.19. As of 12:40, LEH is trading at $42.67, down 0.97 (-2.2%). The chart for LEH looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 14.2% return in six weeks as long as LEH is below $50 at June expiration. LEH would have to rise by more than 17% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
LEH hasn't been above $50 since mid-February and has shown resistance around $47 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in mid-June) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance HSY might find from its 50-day moving average, which is currently around $45.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in LEH or BSC.
According to senior industry sources, the Financial Times reported that the Ministry of Defense could ask General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD) to provide the vehicle design for a new generation of armored vehicles for the army. It is unclear whether General Dynamics, in competition with Nexter and Artec, will be awarded the contract or will be named the preferred bidder.
Following the collapse in March of The Bear Stearns Companies Inc (NYSE: BSC), the Financial Times also reported that the SEC will soon require Wall Street banks to publicly disclose more details about liquidity and capital positions. Cox also urged lawmakers to pass legislation that would allow the SEC, or another regulator, the "explicit mandate to supervise" investment banks.
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According to the New York Times, Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) will move senior investment banker Alberto Verme to Dubai by the end of the month in the hopes of establishing a stronger foothold in the region, a crucial area for global banks.
The New York Times also reported that several large oil companies, including BP Plc (NYSE: BP), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX), agreed to pay nearly $423M in cash in order to settle a lawsuit that alleged water contamination from methyl tertiary butyl ether, a gasoline additive. Under the terms of the deal, the oil giants also agreed to pay 70% of the future cleanup costs for the next 30 years. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and several other companies named in the suit did not agree to the deal.
Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd has joined the baloney brigade -- the term Gary Weiss coined for the tinfoil hat crowd of conspiracy theorists who blame corporate problems on short-sellers.
Referring to the collapse of Bear Stearns, which some have blamed on shorts, Senator Dodd said that "This goes beyond rumors. This is about collusion."
Hold up. So Bear Stearns didn't collapse because of massive losses and a balance sheet like something out of a 1950s horror movie? No, apparently not. Bear Stearns collapsed because short sellers were betting it would collapse.
But isn't that like saying that the Patriots lost the Super Bowl because people bet against them in Las Vegas? The soaring short interest in Bear Stearns was an indicator of the company's problems, not a cause of them. The fact that JPMorgan needed guarantees from the Federal Reserve to acquire the company is proof of that.
According to the New York Post, IAC/InterActiveCorp. (NASDAQ: IACI) Chairman Barry Diller is expected to meet with his board this week to restart the process of breaking up his company into five separate pieces, sources said. At the same time, Diller and Liberty Media Corporation (NASDAQ: LMDIA) Chairman John Malone are continuing to talk about a deal that would trade one or more of IAC's assets for Liberty's ownership stake in IAC.
The UK Times has learned that Numis Securities, the stockbroking group headed by Michael Spencer, is in "advanced talks" to buy the UK equities business of The Bear Stearns Companies Inc (NYSE: BSC). Numis may look to hire a team of 25 from Bear.
Alan C. Greenberg, the 80-year old Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) director who joined the company in 1949, is giving $360 thousand to some of the bank's lower-level employees who may lose their jobs in the company's collapse.
According to the New York Times, "As a result of his gift, 25 longtime workers will receive $200 a month over six years. The recipients include mailroom and clerical employees, several of whom have physical or mental handicaps."
Of course, don't be feeling too warm and fuzzy: since early 2007 alone, Greenberg has sold over $30 million in Bear Stearns stock.
But it's still a nice gesture given that the bank's collapse has left a substantial dent in his net worth too. It's hard to imagine Angelo Mozilo doing something like this. Greenberg may spend the next few years dealing with shareholder lawsuits. He hasn't offered to give any money back to them.
FT.com reports that spreading a false rumor and selling short ahead of that rumor can get you into trouble. Paul Berliner is one such short-seller charged with spreading false stories about the Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX)'s acquisition of Alliance Data Systems (NYSE: ADS) while selling ADS shares short. If the SEC is serious, this could lead to other indictments since this practice appears rampant.
In this case, the SEC had evidence. On November 29 Berliner sent instant messages to traders at brokerage firms and hedge funds suggesting that Blackstone's deal to acquire ADS for $81.75 was being renegotiated at $70 a share. The rumor was picked up by the media and caused ADS's shares to fall 17%. Berliner agreed to settle the charges to disgorge $26,129 in profits, pay a $130,000 fine, and is banned from working for any broker or dealer.
As I posted last month, I received reports that hedge funds went a step further than Berliner. In that case, hedge funds may have caused the collapse of The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC) and profited from its fall. A hedge fund manager in that post said: "Bear's collapse didn't surprise me. We've been short Bear for five days. All the hedge funds have been pulling their prime brokerage business from Bear."
If that hedge fund manager was telling the truth, does that make what he did legal?
Deutsche Bank and other investment banks are apparently working on plans to develop a clearing house for the credit derivatives markets, in an effort to allay rising regulatory concern and investor skittishness about counterparty risk, The Financial Times reported Friday.
Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) and other banks are apparently trying to develop a plan that would allow only institutions with strong capital bases and credible trading histories to clear trades in the credit default swap markets with a central counterparty, The FT reported.
The derivatives market has experienced explosive growth in the past decade, with the instruments' value totaling $350-$450 trillion, depending on the methodology used. At the same time, the credit default swaps market has grown to $45-50 trillion.
Global clearing house
Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Friday that, ideally, a global derivatives clearing house should take the form of a public, international organization administered by member nation states. Failing that, he'd like to see a private international organization administered by the major investment banks.
JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) shares are trading higher after acquisition target Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) posted a profit of $110 million, or 86 cents per share, just below analyst projections of 87 cents per share. The results show that BSC was able to make profits during the ongoing credit crisis. Other financial stocks also reporting good news this morning include M&T Bank (NYSE: MTB) and Schwab (NASDAQ: SCHW). This could be a good sign for JPM, which reports earnings tomorrow. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on JPM.
After hitting a one-year high of $53.25 in May, the stock hit a one-year low of $36.01 in March. JPM opened this morning at $42.18. So far today the stock has hit a low of $41.28 and a high of $42.70. As of 12:10, JPM is trading at $41.91, up $0.41 (1.0%). The chart for JPM looks neutral but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bull-put credit spread below the $35 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just one month as long as JPM is above $35 at May expiration. JPMorgan would have to fall by more than 16% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
To quote Karen from Will & Grace, the latest twist in the demise of Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) is "funny because it's sad."
In a filing with the SEC, Bear Stearns disclosed (subscription required) that it had received notice that civil charges could be en route related to allegations of anticompetitive practices in bidding for municipal securities. The FTC is also alleging that Bear Stearns has violated consumer protection laws.
Let me get this straight. The executives at Bear Stearns managed to run a once-proud investment bank to the brink of ruin while simultaneously cheating their customers and competitors? That's pretty impressive stuff!. It's a little bit like hearing a rumor that the Miami Dolphins were illegally videotaping their opponents while compiling a 1 win and 15 loss season.
But this is pretty much par for the course for Bear Stearns. Gary Weiss recently wrote that Bear Stearns regularly flouted the law" and referred to its "history of sliminess." Check out Weiss' blog post for a compendium of Bear's regulatory run-ins disclosed in its 10-K.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) to post smaller profits in the first quarter. Both banks are scheduled to report results on Wednesday.
JP Morgan is expected to earn 65 cents per share, which is down 51% from the same period in 2007 when it earned $1.34. The company has tended to beat quarterly estimates recently. However, it fell short of the consensus fourth-quarter 2007 estimate by six cents, or 6.8%.
New York-based JP Morgan is the third largest financial services firm in the U.S, behind Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), and recently agreed to buy Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC). In the past year, JP Morgan's revenues were $116.3 billion and its net income totaled $15.3 billion. Its EPS growth forecast for the year is -23.4%, much worse than the banking industry average and the S&P 500. Yet the consensus recommendation of analysts is to buy JPM and has been for most of the past three months.
The stock has fallen 15.5% in the past year and trades at a P/E of 9.47. Shares closed Monday at $41.50.
Two weeks before the end of the quarter, GE CEO Immelt did a webcast in which he said the quarter was great. Implication? Load up on the stock. And now everyone who did is hosed.
What happened? Jeff Immelt wants us to blame those nasty market conditions, the ones that were apparently unforeseeable two days before they occurred. Please. Jeff and GE shouldn't compound this disaster by further damaging their already clobbered credibility. The credit crunch started last summer.
But GE's problem isn't just the credit crunch and Bears' collapse. For example, NBC Universal was also a laggard. It posted revenue growth of 3% and profit growth of 3%; in January, GE had predicted 10% revenue growth and profit increases of 5-10%.
NBC U isn't the most important part of GE's portfolio, so it's understandable that during the earnings call this morning, analysts didn't demand an explanation of what happened with Jeff Zucker's unit. But we sure would love an answer. The best-case scenario for the NBC U division: Zucker and his lieutenants underestimated the effects of the writers strike. Worst-case scenario: It's reflective of a larger decline in the advertising business.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says not all mortgage bonds are bad, and the ones with solid backing could be worth finding and buying.
Home price declines abound. Yet the mortgage bonds that are entwined with those homes are going up. So what's going on?
I think that what is happening is that the bonds themselves are not "as bad" as people think. There are several kinds of bonds out there that have to do with mortgages. Some of them are combinations of Home Equity Loans, and when you read that home prices have declined, many of these bonds could be worthless. But we are now becoming able to figure out that there are some homes that are not being walked away from, and if that paper can be found it might be a buy.
It's the latter that is trading and is taking the pressure off the Merrills (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take) and the Citigroups (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take), and that's why you can hear Merrill say it doesn't need more capital. The inventory is rising in value or being sold at prices that are higher than we thought or that were marked.
JPM is scheduled to report Q1 EPS on April 16. JPM April option implied volatility of 46 is above its 26-week average of 39 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) volatility is at four-week lows as JPM buyout spread tightens.
BSC closed at $10.86 Wednesday. JPM revised its buyout offer for BSC on Mar. 25 to 0.21753 shares. BSC over all option implied volatility of 70 is at four-week lows according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing risk.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
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Here are some highlights from this past week's 
To quote Karen from Will & Grace, the latest twist in the demise of 
JP Morgan Chase
Comfort Zone Investing: One thriving area of real estate: Apartments
Just how high will U.S. gasoline prices rise?
Nordstrom and Kohl's post smaller-than-expected Q1 profit declines
