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Elliott Wave theorists see 'great credit contraction'

Known for their bearish outlook and their forecast for deflation, co-editors Pete Kendall and Steve Hochberg in The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast suggest, "Throughout the first half of the year, we have observed the succession of credit events setting up the greatest credit crisis in history,"

The advisors notes, "A wellspring of credit drives every bubble. The beginning of the end for the credit boom occurs upon a tightening of credit. An intensifying thirst for cash will dry up the well of credit that fed the global markes over the last few years. As it dries up, the seemingly endless succession of market manias will end, also."

The expansion of credit, they contend, lifted virtually all asset prices, and, they say, its contraction will now guide them lower, much to the dismay of those seeking refuge in supposed safe havens.

Meanwhile, Hochberg and Kendall add, "The big news in the bond market is the credit spread explosion, which remains the bedrock of our bond forecast. The steep widening that occurred in July should be the beginning of a historic move. When it ends, junk bonds will have disappeared from the investment landscape."

Continue reading Elliott Wave theorists see 'great credit contraction'

Global gains: Advisor warns of a global bear

I've just returned from the World Money Show in Orlando where more than 10,000 investors gathered to learn about global investing. I had a chance to meet with many of the U.S. and foreign financial experts featured at the show, and over the next week I will share some of their more intriguing ideas. To view all of the stocks featured in this special global report, click here.

Among the most bearish of the advisors at the World Money Show was Steven Hochberg, who says "Amidst a unanimous call by analysts for a 2007 market advance, the blue chip indexes are tracing out their final rally."

I would note that many investors are averse to reading bearish commentary. On the contrary, I would argue that all investors -- no matter how bullish -- are well-served by understanding and considering the arguments made by those who disagree.

Here, the editor of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, cautions, "The pending downturn should be accompanied by a major financial sector reversal, which is expected to be the last straw in a long-term, global topping process." Here's his bearish reasoning.

"One of the legacies of the bull market that began in December 1974 and ended in January 2000 is the conviction that speculation and financial engineering are enduring and self-sustaining engines of economic growth. From 1974 to the third quarter of 2006, financial assets held by Wall Street firms soared from 1.3% to 20.5% of GDP.

"The rate of ascent is even faster than the Fed shows, because their figures do not include hedge fund assets, which are estimated to have hit $2 trillion in November. Including this figure raises Wall Street's total assets to a mind-boggling 36.6% of GDP.

Continue reading Global gains: Advisor warns of a global bear

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+20.9310,267.90
NASDAQ+8.422,159.50
S&P 500+3.381,096.39

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 01:37 PM

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