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Five triggers for a catastrophic market decline

In case anyone is still feeling bullish, Paul Farrell of MarkeWatch has produced a list of 20 triggers that will end what he calls "the aging bull." Here are some of his suggestions for possible "tipping points" that will bring an abrupt end to all this fun. Here are some of the ones I think could be particularly catastrophic:

  • Trade imbalance
  • Real Estate markets problems
  • Skyrocketing Oil
  • Surging consumer debt
  • Issues of international credibility

Interestingly, I disagree strongly with his concern about "Washington politics in endless gridlock." Isn't that a good thing? If the best government is the least government, what could be better than a bunch of bureaucrats in Congress arguing and accomplishing nothing -- i.e. not spending our money?

Take a look at the list and let us know what you think the top concerns are.

The market: you can't lose what you don't sell

Much of the one-day panic about the market was driven by the fear that falling housing prices will hurt consumer confidence. One aspect of that is accurate. As variable rate mortgages reset, people may lose their homes. Unless, of course, the problem become so wide-spread that banks or the Fed decide that mortgage payments need to be underwritten so that homeowners keep their places and the market is not flooded with cheap real estate.

Another reason that investors are worried is the private equity debt is becoming more expensive. Some of the deals for companies like Chrysler or The Tribune Company (NYSE: TRB) could fall apart. The other side of that worry is that banks may pull out of the largest and most risky deals. That could cause lawsuits, but save financial institutions from billion dollar loses. It could also take the prices of some stocks that were in the takeover pool down. But, a stock that KKR wanted to buy at $100 may be attractive to investors at $80.

Shareholders who have stocks that have done as well as the S&P 500 over the last two years are up 20%. And that does not include dividends. Those stocks may be worth less than they were a week ago. But, if they have not been sold, that really isn't important.

The current market may be an ugly business for day traders, but it may give them a break from sitting in their basements in the dark all day.

They just might be scared out into the sunlight.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Bull or Bear Market: Aiming at Q3

Market sentiment seems to be favoring the bears again. My cursory research indicates that 65% of investors are again thinking about an impending decline while the other 35% are still cautiously optimistic. It's only seldom in these last few weeks that I came across the occasional person who insists that the bull charge, which began in 2002, shows no signs of relenting. Just the fact that there has been a noticeable increase in the past few weeks (even before these past few days of declines) in the volume of discussions and analysis regarding how to recognize a bear market is coming, how to prepare for it's arrival and what to do when it gets here, signals to me that investors are getting skittish. The funny thing is that it's almost a universally accepted fact that no one can truly predict a bear market turn.

I gave a warning a couple weeks prior to the last contraction that I thought one was coming. That quick downward slide in fact happened. I'm now going on record again as declaring that the bear is coming for another swipe. I expect that this time the cut will go deeper and bleed a bit longer. (Indeed, I originally wrote this post after Tuesday's sell-off, but already this downturn is longer and deeper than the last). Last time around, I sent you that message based solely on gut instinct with little else to back it up. This time, however, I'll clue you in to some of my thinking.

Continue reading Bull or Bear Market: Aiming at Q3

Sentiment: Pessimism still reigns

Despite the U.S. stock market's continued rally, investors are becoming increasingly more pessimistic.

The AAII Index registered 33% bulls and 45% bears, less bulls and more bears as the market goes higher and higher.

Barron's was also filled with negative sentiment. Steve Leuthold, of Leuthold Group, had little positive to day about the market. In addition, Barron's back-page editorial wrote of the structure bear market and high inflation of the 1970s. Further, even this week's book reviews spread negative vibes. Bubblicious, a history of bubble mania (which sounds like an excellent read), wrote of wildly over extended markets.

Mike Santoli titled his piece "The Bull Battle Fatigue," evidence of which is hard to find since the bull market is showing little sign of ending its upward ascent.

Despite a very good market for 2007, few want to suggest that this is simply a good and healthy bull market. Every rally leads to more and more pessimism.

Wait for the classic sentiment indicates to show too much optimism before becoming negative on the market.

One quarter down -- digging deeper for the rest of 2007

Putting the first quarter behind us, as many wish we would, gives us pause to look ahead in hopes of finding the gems of success that wait for us. Here are some of my areas of interest as dictated by gut instinct. Please, before you groan and wretch and move on to the next post, remember that in defiance of one major writer's claim that no one warned you of the bear(ish) market that passed by this way ... I did.

I had also suggested steering clear of big pharma quite some time ago. You may take note that all but a few of them have, at least temporarily, splattered on the wall. The clear exception I see at this time is Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE), which I consider to be in turn-around mode. I'll even be so bold as to hint that you may want to watch it for some acquisition movement of some kind. Pfizer has a sharp, well-run operation with some fine projects on the table. I like Pfizer and have no reason to change my attitude towards it.

Here are some of my watch words for at least the next two quarters:

  • Watch natural fibers including cotton, glass derivations, carbon, and cellulose. Apply liberal amounts of nano-technologies and your world vastly increases in breadth and scope.
  • Pay attention to water in all it's forms and applications. You shall benefit if you move it ,use it ,split it, spend it, clean it, or own it.
  • Continue to avoid bonds unless your slopping around with bundles of loose cash that you have nothing better to do with.
  • Scrap metals remain solid and steady. Beware of mining, at least temporarily.
  • Watch for increased use of wood as raw material in things other than home construction. In cost of materials, the dynamics are changing. Stay on top of what the manufacturing sector is hinting towards.
  • Look hard at the building and maintenance of diesel engines. I'm receiving reports that biodiesel is having some negative impact on the current trucking fleet. Adaptations in materials and design will be needed soon to accommodate the changes in fuel make up. Be there and be ready.

That's what I have to offer you for right now. At this time I need to make one small apology. I hope those fine people who hold shares in General Electric (NYSE: GE) haven't lost faith in me yet. I promised you $40 per share and I still believe it's coming. Hold tight my friends, nothing good ever comes easy.

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Last updated: May 27, 2012: 08:25 PM

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