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Too chicken to buy Tyson

Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE: TSN) reported, according to this source, a decent quarter in terms of bottom-line profit, but it wasn't enough to satisfy Wall Street. Sales rose almost 10% to $7.2 billion. And net income on an adjusted basis came in at $0.15 per share. That represented pretty good growth over last year's profit figure. But you know, it didn't really matter for two reasons. One, the call by the analyst community was for four more pennies. Two, guidance was not tasty at all. Management sees further pressures coming, and the aforementioned source mentions that the fulfillment of debt obligations is an issue.

A tough environment for chicken has been plaguing Tyson. Not only that, but a look at the company's press release shows that operational cash flow took a huge dive over the last twelve months, dropping roughly 58% to $288 million. There was no free cash for the year to support the dividend obligations. That isn't too encouraging.

The bottom line on Tyson, which competes with the also-struggling Pilgrim's Pride (NYSE: PPC), is that it isn't a buy, at least not from where I sit. I know there will be investors out there who will see some value in the situation, but I cannot, at least not at this time. No, I'm not saying that I think Tyson will disappear. However, there are better ideas out there if you're looking to play the supermarket game over a long-term basis. There's Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), and Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), to name some examples. As I write this, Tyson's stock is down over 11%. Might we see a bounce in the next few days? Sure. But I'm not brave enough to step in with this one.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Smithfield Foods says not all troughs are negative

With the markets still in a choppy/consolidation mode (or perhaps worse), it's best to consider including a few defensive stocks in your portfolio, and with the aforementioned in mind Smithfield Foods is worth an evaluation.

Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD) is the world's largest pork processor and hog producer. The company's products include fresh pork and processed meats sold under the Packerland, John Morrell, Lykes, Patrick Cudahy, and Smithfield Premium names.

Analysts expect Smithfield's F2008 revenue to increase 15-25% after a modest increase in F2007.

Meanwhile, beef margins are expected to widen, offsetting likely narrower hog margins. An improved product mix, including an expansion of value-added products, also has gladdened analysts' hearts.

Continue reading Smithfield Foods says not all troughs are negative

Option update: Fertilizer companies rally on rising grain prices

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) volatility is flat as AGU at record high on strong fertilizer demand. AGU, an agricultural retailer and fertilizer producer, closed at $54.38. AGU over all option implied volatility of 39 is near its 26-week average of 38 according to Track Data, suggesting nondirectional risk.

Terra Industries (NYSE: TRA) volatility is flat; TRA is near record on demand for nitrogen. TRA, an international producer of nitrogen products for industry and agriculture, closed at $31.26. TRA is expected to report EPS on 10/25. TRA over all option implied volatility of 52 is near its 26-week average of 50 according to Track Data, suggesting nondirectional risk.

Option update provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Tyson Foods, so strong they could knock out Mike Tyson

Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE:TSN) shares are up after the chicken, beef, and pork processor reported better-than-expected second-quarter results. The company posted $0.31 EPS, well above the $0.25 First Call estimate and well above a loss posted in Q2 2006. Revenues rose almost $600 million to $6.96 billion, also above the $6.74 billion estimate.

To top it off, the company also raised annual EPS guidance from $0.65 to $0.90 to $0.82 to $0.92. It appears the cost cutting and containment measures are working. The company has closed some processing plants, installed spending caps, and you haven't even heard press on major labor violations in a long time. The company's operating income improved in all operations including its prepared foods unit.

The company is also in the midst of a 'quasi-healthier' launch with its "Raised Without Antibiotics and Any'tizers(tm)" and is also in a renewable fuels venture based on leftover animal fat products that would otherwise end up in landfills.

The other good news here is that it has all the distribution channels in place, and it still has major brand recognition. The reason this is important is that the company noted a higher feedcost being offset by it raising its own sales prices.


Tyson has greatly improved its position from its woes a few years ago. Shares are up 50% from yearly lows and closer to recent highs. At $21.60, that's much closer to the $24.32 high over the last 52-weeks. This one sounds good enough, I think I'm having some chicken for lunch.

Jon Ogg is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Beef = sex: McDonald's makes unshocking discovery in China

The headline everywhere 'round the blogosphere today: "beef is sexy." McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) is making waves not only with its slap-the-forehead realization that its customers want to eat breakfast food after 10:30 a.m., but also with its ad campaign in China.

Evidently, these ads, they show how sexy McDonald's hamburgers are.

Even though the "Where's the beef?" ad campaign from the 80s was decidedly un-sexy, I think I can speak for all of America when I say: MCD, you are not the first one ever to make the connection between beef and sex. Isn't beef tenderloin the most oft-ordered entree on Valentine's Day? And correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't certain members of the male population equated their, um, male member with this favorite of all red meats?

McDonald's is, it seems, discovering the obvious. Not that there's anything wrong with that. I'd say that any management team deserves adulation for giving the people what they want.

Especially when it's sex.

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Last updated: December 05, 2008: 01:04 AM

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