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The week in preview: Trick or treat earnings?

So this earnings season hasn't turned out as bad as some had feared. In fact, we've seen some pretty stellar results from the likes of Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO).

Then there was the Fed's Beige Book report, which suggested that the U.S. economy had stabilized -- and even improved a bit in some sectors.

Well, the earnings crunch rolls on this coming week leading up to Halloween. Do analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect more treats or tricks from coming quarterly reports?

Continue reading The week in preview: Trick or treat earnings?

Beige Book: US economic conditions have stabilized or improved modestly

What is the Beige Book and what does it contain? The US Federal Reserve keeps anecdotal reports on the economy in what is called the "Beige Book." Here are some notes on the key topics:

  • There was some improvement in two of the hardest hit areas -- residential real estate and manufacturing.
  • Gains in economic activity generally outnumbered declines.
  • "Grim" was how the Fed described commercial real estate, "with conditions described as either weak or deteriorating across all districts." Regional banks said they did not see improvement in commercial real estate going forward into 2010.

Continue reading Beige Book: US economic conditions have stabilized or improved modestly

Before the bell: Investors cautious amid earnings bonanza

Stocks are poised to head lower as investors continue to digest news out Tuesday about the nation's flagging housing market. While in recent months optimism had crept into builder stocks in anticipation of recovery, a report from the Commerce Department showed new-home construction flat last month.

The news sent the three major U.S. stock indexes lower in trading yesterday, and futures this morning show the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 each lower by a half percent, along with the Dow Jones industrial average, which could be trading back under the 10,000 level.

Continue reading Before the bell: Investors cautious amid earnings bonanza

The week in preview: Is FedEx still a bellwether?

Memphis-based package delivery giant FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) is generally seen as an indicator of the state of commerce in the U.S. Last week, not only did the Fed's Beige Book report suggest that the economy had stabilized over the summer, with signs of recovery in some districts, But FedEx also boosted its earnings guidance due to stronger-than-expected volume in its international priority-delivery service. So a question going in to FedEx's fiscal first-quarter report this week is whether the company is still a bellwether.

For the three months that ended in August, when FedEx opened distribution hubs in Chicago and Toledo and declared a quarterly dividend, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for it to report that earnings fell 60.2% from a year ago to $0.49 per share. That's also down 23.4% from the previous quarter, as well as less than the recently updated outlook. First quarter revenue is expected to be down 18.3% from a year ago to $8.2 billion.

Continue reading The week in preview: Is FedEx still a bellwether?

Closing Bell: The never ending rally (ABX, GE, PALM, VVUS)

Today was another up and away day, although after the 2:00 PM Beige Book and after a Treasury auction, it felt like today was just going to be a difficult one to call.

This is a light week on data and a light day on earnings and that makes it a hard tell each day to have serious conviction for bulls and bears alike. The DJIA went above 9,500 and marks the 4th day in a row of a rally.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,538.23 +40.89 (0.43%)
S&P 500 1,032.47 +7.08 (0.69%)
Nasdaq 2,058.60 +20.83 (1.02%)

Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades
Top Day Trader Alert Stocks

Continue reading Closing Bell: The never ending rally (ABX, GE, PALM, VVUS)

The week in preview: It's Beige Book time again

Investors and analysts may be wondering whether the market rally is really over, and whether this signals more trouble ahead for the economy. Well, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its next Beige Book report of economic conditions on Wednesday, offering a glimpse of where things stand. The Beige Book report in July suggested that, in some of the 12 Fed districts, the economy appeared to be stabilizing, suggesting that the recession may have reached its bottom, but offering little sign of a recovery. Retail activity remained weak and employment numbers were not good. Yet the minutes of the FOMC August meeting seemed a bit more optimistic about the economy.

In addition to the Beige Book report, the TIPP Economic Optimism Index is scheduled to be released Tuesday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index comes out Friday. So by the end of the week, we could have a good gauge of the mood about the U.S. economy.

Continue reading The week in preview: It's Beige Book time again

The Fed Beige Book: Maybe a bottom but where's the bounce?

The Federal Reserve released its latest beige book report detailing economic conditions across the country based upon observed evidence and conversations. The 12 Fed district banks "indicated that the pace of decline has moderated since the last report or that activity has begun to stabilize, albeit at a low level."

It indicates that retail activity is weak with essentially no wage pressure. This may be good news on the inflation front but is negative for the employment situation. There was some improvement in healthcare and technology.

Continue reading The Fed Beige Book: Maybe a bottom but where's the bounce?

The week in preview: Still seeking good news

Well, last week's Beige Book report and other indicators didn't in fact make it clear whether economic recovery is underway. So what do we have to look forward to this week?

There's Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's testimony at the House Committee Hearing on the Financial Regulation Plan on Wednesday evening. Or how about the bankruptcy filings for the second quarter or Leading Indicators Index for May, scheduled to be released Monday afternoon and Thursday morning, respectively. Will they provide a clear signal about the direction of the economy? Probably not.

Continue reading The week in preview: Still seeking good news

Fed data indicates the recession may be slowing

Good news everyone! The Fed believes that the worst of the recession has passed. At least that is what its snapshot of economic conditions from yesterday showed. The data indicated that the "downward trend is showing signs of moderating" in five of the Fed's 12 regions.

Furthermore, "several" regions indicate that their expectations of future business activity have improved, but there will not be a "substantial increase" through the end of the year. In the last survey, "several regions" indicated signs of some stability at low levels. Taken in whole, the assessments of businesses on the "front lines" of the economy appear slightly better than in the last report, which was issued in mid-April.

Continue reading Fed data indicates the recession may be slowing

The week in preview: The Beige Book and other mood gauges

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its next Beige Book report of economic conditions on Wednesday, offering perhaps the best glimpse yet whether the recession has bottomed in the United States. The Beige Book report in March suggested that, by most measures, the economy was continuing to deteriorate and that prospects for near-term improvement was poor. But the April report showed that the deterioration was beginning to slow in some regions. Also, the TIPP Economic Optimism Index is scheduled to be released Tuesday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index comes out Friday. So by the end of the week, we could have a good gauge of the mood over the U.S. economy.

Continue reading The week in preview: The Beige Book and other mood gauges

According to the Federal Reserve, the worst has yet to come

Federal Reserve Beige Book March ReportAfter a week of heavy selling, Wall Street is moving higher today despite news that the Federal Reserve expects to see the economy continue to deteriorate.

In its most recent Beige Book, the Fed noted that the chances of any sort of improvement in the economy looked "poor" in the short term, and that it did not expect to see any sort of recovery start to take place until at least the end of 2009 or perhaps even into 2010.

Continue reading According to the Federal Reserve, the worst has yet to come

The Fed Beige Book Report: Hawkish talk, but no action

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released its Beige Book Report detailing economic activity among the twelve Federal Reserve Districts across the country. The pace of economic activity was quite sluggish throughout much of the country. At the same time, there have been hawkish comments recently by several Fed governors. This leads us to the question of the possibility of a Fed rate increase on the horizon.

However, one must remember that hawkish talk is quite different from hawkish action. As I have said in my book, Follow the Fed to Investment Success, "watch what the Fed does not what it says."

The Fed has given no indication that an imminent raise in interest rates is forthcoming. There have simply been hawkish comments, which are an incredibly inexpensive means of maintaining its inflation-fighting credentials. However, every time market turmoil arises, the Fed adopts a more conciliatory tone.

Continue reading The Fed Beige Book Report: Hawkish talk, but no action

Market sees biggest upswing in almost a year: Recession back in closet

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose today by 187 points, a 1.41% rise. The NASDAQ rose by 32 points, or 1.28% and the vaunted S&P 500 Index by 22 points or 1.52%. The markets were relatively benign until the details emerged from the Federal Reserve's Beige Book.

The Beige Book is released eight times per year, and is the collective wisdom of the 12 different Fed Governors. The news was better than expected, and the 10-year treasury note, which was topping out at 5.25%, began to sink and investors re-focused on the equities market.

The details from the Beige Book report was just the music the equity investor wanted -- needed -- to hear. Capital goods orders were picking up and the job market was, indeed, stabilizing. To boot, the real symphony continued when the Fed indicated there was no upward pressure on wage prices, thus stemming one of the legs of inflation. Consumer spending appears to remain in a healthy pattern, with general retail sales up a surprising 1.6%, versus the expectations of 0.8%. The consumer is still in a position to sustain economic growth.

The indicators from the Federal Reserve basically put the "R -word": Recession, back into the closet.

Continue reading Market sees biggest upswing in almost a year: Recession back in closet

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+73.0010,270.47
NASDAQ+18.862,167.88
S&P 500+6.241,093.48

Last updated: November 14, 2009: 11:49 AM

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