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Macau: Global gaming gains

Macau -- an 11-square-mile territory on the southern coast of the People's Republic of China -- is a "gaming hotbed," notes Beth Gaston Moon, an analyst with Schaeffer's Investment Research. Indeed, Macau saw 2006 gambling revenue up 22% to $6.95 billion. For the first time on record, its gaming revenue exceeded that of Las Vegas.

As the technical analyst -- known for her contrarian investment strategy -- points out, "These figures affirm Macau's status as a region to be reckoned with in the world of blackjack and baccarat." Here, she looks at the investment opportunities in the region:

Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) was the first stateside company to begin operations in Macau. Moon explains, "In 2004, the company built the Sands Macau, the largest casino in the world (in terms of the number of table games)."

Next in line was Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN), which she notes built the Wynn Macau in 2006. A third player, whose casino is slated for construction over the next year is the MGM Grand (NYSE: MGM).

Continue reading Macau: Global gaming gains

Top Picks 2007: Option Advisor speculates on options exchange

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

International Securities Exchange Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: ISE) is the top speculative play for 2007 from Bernie Schaeffer, technical trading expert and editor of The Option Advisor. He explains, "ISE is an electronic exchange and the world's largest trading venue for equity options (in terms of volume traded).

"About two years ago, the ISE set a precedent when it became the first U.S. options exchange to debut for public trading. ISE has appeared in the earnings confessional seven times since its trading debut in early 2005. On all of those occasions, the firm has either matched or exceeded Wall Street's earnings expectations.

"Since it appeared on the scene, the stock's path of least resistance has pointed higher, although options players remain wedded to the bearish camp. If the stock continues to advance upon new-high territory, a short-covering situation could be in the offing, eliciting an additional source of buying power.

"Analysts are also skeptical; the most recent Zacks information finds that 10 of the 11 brokerages following the stock have named it a 'hold,' leaving one 'strong sell' rating and nary a 'buy' to be found. The skepticism is palpable on this one, making it a solid contrarian play as 2007 kicks off."

To see Bernie's top conservative investment idea for 2007, click here.

Top Picks 2007: Schaeffer sees solid foundation under Lennar

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) is the favorite conservative investment for 2007 from Bernie Schaeffer, editor of The Option Advisor. He notes, "Lennar, one of the largest homebuilding firms in the U.S., is built on a very solid foundation.

"For more than 20 quarters running, the stock has exceeded or matched analysts' per-share earnings expectations. Despite negative earnings revisions and poor housing statistics during the past few months, homebuilding stocks have actually rallied from their July 2006 lows.

"For its part, LEN is back up near six-month highs. It has been a relative-strength leader when compared to its peers in the outperforming ISE Homebuilders Index. Meanwhile, options players are firmly entrenched in the bearish camp. And, nearly 9% of the equity's float has been sold short.

"Analysts are still leery of LEN, as evidenced by the latest Zacks data. Of the 12 brokerage firms ranking the shares, five have awarded a 'hold' rating while two list the stock as a 'strong sell.' A continued upward drive in the shares could spur some upgrade activity, drawing positive attention toward the equity."

To see Bernie's favorite speculative idea for 2007, click here.

Short-term concerns about the current "Santa Rally"

As the year draws to an end I thought it might be interesting to check in with Bernie Schaeffer, my boss, to get his thoughts on the short-term outlook. I asked him about his near-term outlook and he had three concerns about the action during the next few weeks.

The first concern is based on the level of optimistic comments being made by analysts. Tracking this form of "anecdotal sentiment" is time consuming as it requires constantly staying abreast of what is being discussed, but it offers a look into the mindset of the Street. When the expectations get one-sided, it can be warning sign to watch out for potential disappointments.

The second point of concern comes from the options market. Among other uses, options give investors a way to speculate and hedge. Monitoring the activity can give another perspective on what market players are feeling and expecting. The current data reveal a slant toward optimism as speculators have a preference for calls in some indices. Comparing the relative pricing of call options to put options also suggests optimism, as we have seen a contraction in the typical negative volatility skew we track.

His last point of concern is based on underlying deterioration in the small-cap area. The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) has turned lower after pushing to the 800 level, but most of the attention has been on the narrowly focused strength in blue-chip stocks.

Taken as a whole, it seems that expectations may have gotten a bit ahead of themselves, which opens up the possibility of some short-term volatility. However, Bernie is quick to point out that he is quite bullish about the overall outlook for next year. In BusinessWeek's poll of 80 strategists, Bernie maintains the highest year-end target for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Calling for a new all-time high in the average, he does expect the economy will slow down next year, but believes that is already factored into expectations.

Nick Perry is an analyst with Schaeffer's Investment Research.

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