A look at NYSE short interest as of February 15 shows that short sellers are still willing to make very large bets that bank stocks will go lower.
Shares sold short in Wachovia (NYSE: WB) rose 16.3 million between January 31 and February 15. For Citigroup (NYSE: C) shares short rose 10.9 million to 92.8 million. At Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) the number was up 6.3 million to 68.8 million.
Even with bank stocks trading near multi-year lows, a number of investors are anticipating more bad news as banks file their 10Ks for 2007 and announce their 2008 first quarter results. The short sellers have a fairly good chance of making a killing.
Big banks still have several things going against them. As the mortgage market gets worse, they may have more subprime write-downs. A drop in the credit rating at a bond insurer like MBIA (NYSE: MBI) could force the banks to write-down securities that rely on AAA ratings for some of their value. Perhaps the most important liability banks have not faced is the declining value of financial instruments based on auto loans and credit card balances.
The world is likely to get much worse for big banks and short-sellers are likely to make money on that.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.