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Big Five: Even after fall, still not enough value

For the first time in about two months, shares of Big Five Sporting Goods (NASDAQ: BGFV) are below $24 as a result of cutting its second quarter forecasts thanks to worse-than-expected same-store sales growth. While the market reacted semi-dramatically, sending the stock down more than 5%, I believe this decline in growth is only a hiccup in the company's growth story, especially because this is the company's first quarterly decline in same-store sales growth in 11 years.

While many would expect a value investor to jump on the opportunity to purchase a good company after a slip-up, I don't think that Big Five offers much value, at least when compared to a similar company: Cabela's (NYSE: CAB). To start, I believe the two companies are in fact very good comparisons -- they are similar in nearly every regard: multiple to this year's earnings, multiple to next year's earnings, multiple to sales, multiple of enterprise value to EBITDA, balance sheet dynamics (relatively speaking, very close debt/equity ratio), operating margins, etc.

As the story continues, it seems that Cabela's is actually cheaper than Big Five, despite the company's recent fall. Why?

Continue reading Big Five: Even after fall, still not enough value

Analyst downgrades 6-22-07: ANF, BGFV, COGN, TLB and SBUX

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Select theater stocks, Equity Inns (ENN), Talbots (TLB) and Starbucks (SBUX) filled today's noteworthy downgrade segment:
  • Banc of America said summer blockbusters have fallen off faster than they expected and there are fewer mid-tier films to support growth:
  • Equity Inns (NYSE: ENN) was cut to Sell from Hold at AG Edwards after the Whitehall acquisition. JMP Securities and Friedman Billings cut shares to Market Perform from Outperform and KeyBanc downgraded Equity Inns to Hold from Buy.
  • Matrix USA downgraded Talbots (NYSE: TLB) to Sell from Hold based on the eroding return of capital because of the company using capital to acquire and open new stores. Friedman Billings downgraded shares of
  • Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) to Market Perform from Outperform and removed the company from their FBR Top Picks list on expectations that 2H07 same-store sales will no longer improve, removing a catalyst...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Banc of America downgraded Cognos (NASDAQ: COGN) to Neutral from Buy.
  • Roth downgraded Fuel Tech Inc (NASDAQ: FTEK) to Hold from Buy.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst initiations 4-30-07: BGFV, CVS, IGT, IHP and RATE

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Today's more noteworthy initiations included International Game Technology (IGT), Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp (BGFV), CVS/Caremark Corp (CVS) and IHOP Corp (IHOP):
  • Jefferies assumed coverage of International Game Tech (NYSE: IGT) with a Buy rating and $47 target citing an attractive risk/reward.
  • Big 5 Sporting Goods (NASDAQ: BGFV) was started with a Sector Performer rating and $33 target at CIBC, expecting shares to be driven by an operating margin recover and improving cash flows.
  • CVS/Caremark Corp (NYSE: CVS) was reinstated with an Overweight rating at Lehman Brothers and resumed with an Overweight rating at Morgan Stanley.
  • JP Morgan believes the rough environment, growing competition and valuation warrants IHOP Corp (NYSE: IHP) to start with a Neutral rating.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • American Technology initiated shares of Bankrate, Inc (NASDAQ: RATE) with a Buy rating and $48 target.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+44.2910,291.26
NASDAQ+15.822,166.90
S&P 500+5.501,098.51

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 08:13 PM

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