What a difference a few months can make. Back in December, I was a bit bearish on Big Lots (BIG). That was at $29.50. Know what the stock closed at yesterday? Its final price was $41.33. And that's rather close to the 52-week high of $42.27.

To fully appreciate how dramatic the rise in the stock has been requires a look at the one-year chart. Impressive, isn't it? I guess I should have been a stronger believer in the retailer. So, what should I be thinking now?

Analyst Upgrades

• U.S. Steel (X) to buy from neutral and Barnes & Noble (BKS) to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• Salesforce.com (CRM) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Dollar Tree (DLTR) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Edison International (EIX) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• Analog Devices (ADI) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.

Analyst Upgrades

• Athenahealth (ATHN), Ensco (ESV), Pride International (PDE) and Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• CIRCOR (CIR) to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Urban Outfitters (URBN) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• Shaw Group (SHAW) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• MGM Resorts (MGM) and Boyd Gaming (BYD) to buy from neutral, as well as Intrepid Potash (IPI) to neutral from underperform, at BofA/Merrill.
• Carlisle (CSL) to buy from neutral at SunTrust.

Big Lots (BIG), a retailer whose colleagues include Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT), was feeling the wrath of the sellers on Friday. The stock closed down 5% to $29.50. Volume was above the norm.

According to Briefing.com, the company made 23 cents per share in the third quarter. Unfortunately, that was one penny below the overall forecast. In addition, guidance for Q4 wasn't too striking, and same-store sales experienced only slight growth.

Analyst Upgrades

• Piper Jaffray upgraded Duoyuan Global Water (DGW) to neutral from underweight, citing the potential for positive fundamental news flow through the end of the year, and upped its price target to $16 from $9.
• Jefferies upgraded Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) to buy from underperform, expecting a benefit from a significant ramp in EVDO software sales as mobile data growth accelerates.
• Myriad Genetics (MYGN) was upgraded at RBC Capital to outperform from sector perform with a $23 price target based on valuation and potential to be acquired.
• Goldman upgraded Mohawk (MHK) to neutral from sell with a $53 price target.
• Smithfield Foods (SFD) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at BMO capital with a $21 target.
• Priceline.com (PCLN) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Morgan Keegan.

Both Walmart (WMT) and BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) reported strong quarterly results last week, suggesting that discount retailers are still doing well even as the economy seems to be coming around. This week, Costco (COST) and Big Lots (BIG) take their turns in the earnings spotlight, and analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect a strong showing from them as well.

And we'll round out this preview of the coming week with a look at expectations for AutoZone (AZO), Canada's big banks, and Trina Solar (TSL).

Big Lots (BIG) surely satisfied its investors yesterday when it reported double-digit earnings growth. On an adjusted basis, net income from continuing operations jumped over 30% to $1.31 per share during the fourth quarter. Analysts couldn't keep up, because they were looking for $1.28 per share, according to Earnings.com.

Total sales went up 7%, but same-store revenue, the more vital metric, was higher by 5.1%. Cash flow from operating activities for both the quarter and the full fiscal year experienced significant increases. Gross margin expanded over both of those periods as well.

The next month is the one that matters most to the retail sector. It will dominate the conversation when Q4 and full-year financials are reported. A strong Black Friday brought with it concerns that momentum will fade, but opportunity is not dispensed equally. Some retailers will come through the season better than others, and industry experts have already chosen their favorites.

Michael Dart, senior partner at Kurt Salmon Associates, says, "We are seeing a paradigm shift in the way consumer interprets value and what they are looking for." The winners will do more than pitch deep discounts to convince consumers to part with their hard-earned cash.

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) Q2 profit fell short of estimates as same-store sales declined.
• Ann Taylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) Q2 earnings beat very low expectations and same-store sales fell.
• Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) reported better-than-expected numbers for Q2, sending shares upward.
• Burger King Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BKC) posted a better-than-expected Q4 profit though revenue declined.
• China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. posted a record Q2 profit after restrictions on fuel prices were lifted.
• Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) said its Q2 earnings declined, but they still topped analysts' expectations.

Big Lots (NYSE: BIG - option chain) shares are rising today after the company posted a second-quarter profit of $28.4 million, or 34 cents per share, on revenue of $1.09 billion. BIG's adjusted profit of 35 cents per share topped analysts' forecasts of 30 cents per share on revenue of $1.08 billion. This amount is up from last year at the same time, when BIG posted EPS of 0.32. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on BIG.

BIG opened this morning at $25.38. So far today the stock has hit a low of $25.38 and a high of $26.70. As of 11:40, BIG is trading at $25.95, up $1.92 (8.1%). The chart for BIG looks bullish and S&P gives BIG a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

Canadian banks are scheduled to step into the earnings spotlight this week, with third-quarter reports coming from Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), and Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD). While Canadian banks on the whole held up better than their U.S. counterparts during the financial crisis, these five are expected to report that their earnings are still declining in the most recent quarter.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for EPS for these banks to have fallen from 15% to 25% from a year ago. Their long-term EPS growth forecast is for between 10% and 12%, which is in the same range as U.S. rivals JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), but better than Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) and Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C). Earnings multiples for these Canadian banks are 10x to 12x, but none of them have a First Call consensus recommendation is to buy. The Motley Fool, though, considers TD as a value stock and RY a stock poised to pop. All of them are trading much closer to their 52-week highs than lows, and shares of all are up more than 100% since March lows.