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Analyst upgrades 8-30-07: ATE, BIG, MOT and TASR

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Taser Int'l (TASR), Motorola (MOT), Advantest (ATE), STMicroelectronics (STM) and Joy Global (JOYG) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Merriman upgraded shares of Taser Int'l (NASDAQ: TASR) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the 25% decline in price since late July, accelerating law enforcement demand and upside potential from the recently launched personal TASER C2.
  • Lehman upgraded shares of Motorola (NYSE: MOT) to Overweight from Equal Weight as they believe increased production and opex progress in Q3 could signal a turnaround at the company's phone unit.
  • Jefferies upgraded Advantest (NYSE: ATE) to Hold from Underperform on valuation.
  • STMicroelectronics (NYSE: STM) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation at Bernstein.
  • Stifel upgraded shares of Joy Global (NASDAQ: JOYG) to Buy from Hold following the in line Q3 report as they believe bad news is reflected in valuation...
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Idacorp (NYSE: IDA) was upgraded to Market Perform from Under Perform at Wachovia.
  • Wedbush raised Big Lots (NYSE: BIG) to Buy from Hold, with a $35 target, and DSW Inc. (NYSE: DSW) to Hold from Sell, with a $29 target.
  • LabCorp (NYSE: LH) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Cowen.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst upgrades 8-29-07: AZO, HD, MVL and TAP

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Marvel Entertainment (MVL), AutoZone (AZO), Home Depot (HD), Molson Coors (TAP) and Semtech (SMTC) were some of today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Matrix upgraded Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) to Buy from Hold as they don't think the company's improving performance is reflected in its falling stock price. They think Marvel represents a good entry point at current levels.
  • Kevin Dann upgraded shares of AutoZone (NYSE: AZO) to Buy from Hold on valuation and highlighted their belief that AutoZone may not be seeing as much sales weakness as investors expect. They recommend taking advantage of the recent share weakness and raised their target to $135 from $125.
  • Gabelli recommends Home Depot (NYSE: HD) as a long-term buy with a $43 target, upgraded shares from Hold, with the Supply division uncertainty now eliminated. They view the sale positively, even at the lower price.
  • JP Morgan upgraded Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP) to Overweight from Neutral, and believes Molson will monetize its solid balance sheet and free-cash flow yield to benefit the shareholders. They also consider valuation to be attractive.
  • Semtech (NASDAQ: SMTC) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair following the strong Q2 report and outlook...
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Big Lots (NYSE: BIG) was upgraded to Market Outperform from Market Perform at Avondale.
  • Breen Murray raised to Intevac (NASDAQ: IVAC) to Hold from Sell.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst initiations 6-19-07: BIG, DIS, NWS, TWX and VIA.B

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Atheros Communications (ATHR), Analog Devices (ADI), Omniture (OMTR) and TriZetto Group (TZIX) were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Oppenheimer expects a seasonally stronger 2H07 out of Atheros Communications (NASDAQ: ATHR) given continued growth from 802.11n design wins and started shares with a Buy rating.
  • AG Edwards believes Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI) has plenty of room to gain additional market share and started shares with a Buy rating.
  • Jefferies believes Omniture (NASDAQ: OMTR) is positioned to benefit from the rapid growth of Web analytics, but has near-term valuation concerns, and started shares with a Hold rating.
  • Deutsche Bank started TriZetto (NASDAQ: TZIX) with a Buy rating, citing the company's diversified product mix and opportunities to drive adoption rate of consumer-driven health plans for their Buy rating...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • The Banc of America assumed the entertainment sector with a Market Weight rating and assumed coverage of Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) and News Corp (NYSE: NWS.A) with Buy ratings and a $25 target and $26 target, respectively, as well as The Walt Disney Co (NYSE: DIS) and Viacom (NYSE: VIA.B) with Neutral ratings and a $37 target and $43 target, respectively.
  • JP Morgan started Big Lots (NYSE: BIG) with a Neutral rating.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Wal-Mart, Kohl's and Target see rise yesterday

There were some retail stocks that ended the trading day yesterday a little higher than last Friday, with retailers like Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG), Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) and Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) leading the way. Why? Well, it had nothing to do with any significant sales results from those three retailers, but a survey did show that consumers were feeling more confident in May. That's right -- a survey caused some rather large retail stocks to move. Wonder if the surveyors were shorters?

Jokes aside, May consumer confidence did show that May sentiment rose over the April level, which came in as a surprise based on an expected consumer pullback in May due to hike in gas prices. This caused investors to bid up Wal-Mart for some reason. Well, that's neither here nor there -- WMT stock moves when a fly enters the room, right?

Not exactly, but the retailer's fortunes are closely joined at the hip with consumer spending and sentiment measurements since the pulse of retail is so close to Wal-Mart in many respects. Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) shares were up as well yesterday, so the two largest discount retailers saw modest rises on the backs of the survey results from The Conference Board. Will May same-store sales reflect this short-lived enthusiasm? We only have today and tomorrow left, so stay tuned.

Big Lots financial supply chain

There are plenty of discount and closeout retailers out there, but Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) has developed a competitive advantage that allows it to compete more effectively and efficiently. Rather than concentrating just on supply chain management to get products where they need to go, on time and at an acceptable price, Big Lots, with 1400 stores, has also developed a financial supply chain to help its vendors, while at the same time helping itself.

Several years ago, Big Lots realized that many of its vendors were having cash flow problems of their own, sometimes affecting their abilities to get products into stores. The vendor's cost of borrowing and lack of access to capital delayed production and shipment. Utilizing a third party, PrimeRevenue, Big Lots partnered with its vendors. All invoices are now posted online within 24 hours through PrimeRevenue. A vendor knows exactly when it will get paid and how much. Vendors can either sell the invoices to a participating financial institution and receive money within 24 hours or wait for full payment. Vendors also get to borrow money based on Big Lots' good credit rating, driving the cost of borrowing down for many vendors. This, in turn, means Big Lots lowers its own cost of goods.

Integrating vendors into its financial supply chain means that Big Lot buyers, who want the best possible price for goods, and vendors who were once reluctant to lower their prices, now work within the same system. Vendors know exactly what and when they will get paid, negating their need to push prices up to cover cash shortfalls. Big Lots estimates it has shaved 4% off the price of goods by eliminating financial inefficiencies in its supply chain. Both sides benefit. Big Lots buyers get better terms and long-term vendor relationships. Vendors get improved cash flow. So far, the program is a success. Big Lots 1Q 2007 comparable sales were up 4.9%, and total sales were up 3.5% to just over $1 billion.

Big Lots: Big discounts on stuff you need

Deep discount retailers may not have exactly what you want right now, but they usually have a lot of what you are going to want before long and the bargains keep you coming back. A leader in the art of finding and offering the good deals is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.

Big Lots Inc. (NYSE:BIG) is the largest broadline closeout retailer in the United States. Stores offer such staples as food, health and beauty products, plastics, furniture, toys, lawn tools, electronics, apparel and small appliances. The goods are generally products that have been overproduced, or discontinued, and are typically offered at 20-40% below discounters' prices. The company currently operates 1,375 stores in 47 states.

Big Lots pleased investors last week when it reported Q4 EPS of 83 cents and revenues of $1.55 billion. Analysts had been expecting 70 cents and $1.53 billion. Management also guided Q1 EPS to 18-22 cents (16 cent consensus) and FY08 EPS to $1.18-$1.23 ($1.04 consensus).

Continue reading Big Lots: Big discounts on stuff you need

Big Lots shares following positive trading channel

Big Lots (NYSE:BIG) is a broadline closeout retailer, with some 1,400 stores in 47 states. It sells a variety of brand-name products that have been overproduced or discontinued, typically at prices 20-40% below discount store levels.

The company pleased Wall Street last month, with a solid earnings report. Third quarter EPS came in at seven cents and revenues totaled $1.05 billion. Analysts had been looking for a loss of three cents and $1.05 billion. Management guided Q4 EPS to 62-67 cents (59 cent consensus), Q4 revenues to $1.50-$1.53 billion ($1.47B consensus) and FY07 EPS to 85-90 cents (71 cent consensus). The news kept BIG shares cycling through a positive, eleven-week trading channel. The price is currently consolidating at the base of that channel, where oversold Momentum and MACD technical parameters suggest the potential for a rise back toward the top. Correspondence of the stock's 30-day moving average to the channel base backs the rebound notion.

Brokers recommend the issue with three "strong buys", two "holds" and one "sell". The BIG Price to Sales ratio (0.56), Price to Book ratio (2.49), Price to Cash Flow ratio (15.92), Price to Free Cash Flow ratio (9.26) and EPS Growth rate (-0.17 to +0.07 yr/yr) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages.

Institutional investors hold about 95 percent of the outstanding shares. BIG is one of the issues used to calculate the S&P 500 Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $11.83 and $26.36. A stop-loss of $20.30 seems about right, here.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com.

Top Picks 2007: Buyback Letter bets Big Lots is a bargain

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) is a favorite conservative idea from David Fried, editor of The Buyback Letter. He explains, "Investors should indulge their 'inner bargain hunter' and put the nation's largest closeout retailer, Big Lots, in their stock shopping basket.

"Shopping -- and particularly deal hunting -- continue to be hugely popular pastimes, and discount stores are a good pick in a crummy or waffling economy. The company keeps a flexible inventory, has well-located and plentiful retail locations, and its sheer size ($2.5 billion market cap) gives it international buying power smaller chains cannot match.

"A new CEO has focused Big Lots, closing underperforming stores and introducing a new goal to encourage existing customers to spend more per visit. This strategy, called 'raise the ring,' has revived sales growth and paid off in improved earnings.

Continue reading Top Picks 2007: Buyback Letter bets Big Lots is a bargain

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