Savient Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT), surged yesterday on analyst comments regarding their promising new treatment for Gout. Savient is a biopharmaceutical company. It engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of pharmaceutical products that target unmet medical needs.

Savient makes Oxandrin, which treats involuntary weight loss caused by trauma, surgery, or diseases such as HIV. The company reported a 3rd quarter loss due to increased generic competition for the drug. This is just another in a long line of Pharmaceutical companies to lose market share to the generics. Nonetheless, Citi Investment Research analyst Andrew Swanson started coverage of the drug maker with a "Buy/Speculative" rating and $21 price target. Which is 50% higher than yesterday's closing price.

The company's biggest growth prospect is Puricase which treats gout, a painful inflammation of the joints caused by having too much uric acid built up in the blood. Swanson notes that gout is a large and untapped market, as three million patients await their first new therapy in more than 30 years. At $15,000 per year, even making modest market share assumptions, Swanson's peak sales forecast for Puricase is $600 million.

With such a promising drug in the pipeline this looks like an interesting play. Savient's entire market-cap is $767 million, so this could be a huge opportunity for investors. But as the case with all potential blockbuster drug in trial, if the trial fails, look out below! In a note to clients, Swanson estimates the chance of positive data at 80%, but warned that if the trial fails, Savient shares could fall to as little as $3. Yikes.

Clearly this isn't for the faint of heart, but if you can stomach the potential downside, the upside potential will be well worth the risk.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. Disclosure: Writer has no position in any stock mentioned as of 11/29/07.

Savient Pharmaceuticals: Hopes ride on gout originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 29 Nov 2007 18:57:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.