black friday posts
FeedPosted Dec 3rd 2008 11:15AM by Steven Mallas (RSS feed)
Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Sony Corp ADR (SNE), Black Friday, Electronic Arts (ERTS), Activision Inc (ATVI)
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is in mortal competition with Sony (NYSE: SNE). The Xbox 360 wants to destroy the PlayStation 3. Of course, both would like to take out the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii, but that's a pipe dream at this point. Microsoft mainly wants to claim victory over Sony because the systems of those two companies are more comparable to each other than they are to the Wii. And it looks like the most recent Black Friday may have been a win for Microsoft.
According to this source, the Xbox 360 outsold the PlayStation 3 by a margin of three-to-one. Also, Microsoft increased its console sales on Black Friday by 25% on a year-over-year basis. This data comes from Microsoft itself. Assuming it is close to accurate, Sony continues to find itself in a terrible position. Really, this current console cycle has been difficult for the PlayStation franchise. But while Microsoft won bragging rights, I can't help but wonder if the real winner from this increase in Xbox 360's installed user base is actually Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI). It's currently my favorite publisher, and I own it in my portfolio. And given that the article I cited mentions the fact that the Xbox 360 enjoys a healthy game attach rate (the game attach rate is an indicator of how many software titles are purchased per console for a particular system), I figure that a lot of the new Xbox 360 owners will be attaching titles such as Call of Duty and Guitar Hero to their systems. These two brands play very well on the powerful console, and they are must-own games for a lot of users.
Admittedly, I'm sure other publishers will benefit from all the new Xbox 360 owners. Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), THQ (NASDAQ: THQI), and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) are all obviously happy over Microsoft's Black Friday performance. But I believe Activision Blizzard to be the best positioned of the group. Its portfolio should rock over the holidays, and I think the company will take full advantage of all the console sales from now until the new year.
Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.
Posted Dec 2nd 2008 2:12PM by Brian White (RSS feed)
Filed under: Products and services, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Best Buy (BBY), Black Friday

Dell Inc. (NASDAQ:
DELL) came in second to global PC sales leader
Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE:
HPQ) during the Black Friday shopping frenzy and the ensuing weekend, according to analyst firm Thomas Weisel Partners. The report, however, analyzed sales only at a single retailer,
Best Buy Co. (NYSE:
BBY).
Thomas Weisel analyst Doug Reid indicated that holiday PC buyers were preferring Hewlett-Packard's PC five to one over Dell's PCs at the largest consumer electronics retailer in the U.S. While
Reid's survey only looked at 35 stores, that's enough to generate a statistically legitmate finding. Reid went on to say that "Dell has significant work to do . . . the only negative comments in our survey with respect to brand were aimed at Dell, with survey respondents noting potential quality issues.''
Is Dell's retail strategy working as well as founder Michael Dell had hoped when he aggressively launched his retail strategy in the summer of 2007? Doubtful, and competitor HP has not stood still since that moment, and has actually increased its market share in retail with stylish designs, many configurations and aggressive pricing that keeps a large thumb on Dell's retail efforts. From looking at some of the top retailers this past three-day shopping holiday, HP's laptop offerings were certainly more numerous than Dell's. If that presence translates to more shelf space, then there you go.
Posted Dec 1st 2008 1:21PM by Brian White (RSS feed)
Filed under: Rants and raves, Black Friday

As Peter Cohan
wrote this weekend, sadly, some folks were killed over the holiday weekend due to what could be easily argued as Black Friday madness. In the zeal for saving a few dollars on cheaply-made, bargain-basement disposable consumer goods, one man was trampled to death as he opened the doors of a
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:
WMT) store, while two other people were shot to death outside a Toys R Us store. Joy to the world, the materialism has won.
Although I enjoy covering the Black Friday event every year, the industry-made madness has become such an event that actually dumps respect for human beings into the garbage disposal, so that those crazy souls wanting to save 30% on shoes or a flat-screen television can get their fix.
I mean,
is this what the holidays have come down to?
The New York Times has a decent perspective on this. But, of course, America has always been about materialism and consumerism. Those are the factors that have made the U.S. the reigning economy worldwide. It's a free country for anyone to do as they wish, from billion-dollar companies to consumers with change in their pockets purchasing power. If we're all trained like Pavlov's dogs come the day after Thanksgiving -- credit cards in hand at 5:00am -- then it's no surprise some folks will die for the self-indulging greed of other human beings. Fa la la la la, la la la la.
Posted Dec 1st 2008 12:42PM by Jonathan Berr (RSS feed)
Filed under: Consumer experience, Apple Inc (AAPL), Marketing and advertising, Best Buy (BBY)

Riddle me this Applenauts, Mac Geeks, and other assorted nerds: Is dealing with
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:
AAPL) always such a royal pain in the butt?
The reason I ask is that my wife and I joined the Mac cult yesterday. We became the owners of a new, aluminum MacBook. My dad -- an Apple fan since the 1970s -- could not be prouder. I, too, was ecstatic. Finally, I am going to be one of the cool kids. I would be part of the revenge of the nerds. My technological joy, however, may be short-lived.
Our problem was with Apple's customer service or lack thereof. For one thing, we weren't able to complete our order on Black Friday because of a technical snafu on the Apple Web site that made it impossible for us to use the company's zero-percent interest financing offer. The rare sale discount we were able to get for the machine evaporated. My wife tried to get a hold of customer service on Saturday, but got disgusted after being disconnected. We drove to
Best Buy (NYSE:
BBY) to look at laptops but nothing grabbed our fancy even though many of the machines offered comparable performance to the MacBook for much lower prices.
Continue reading Is dealing with Apple always so difficult?
Posted Nov 29th 2008 5:21PM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Good news, Consumer experience, Economic data
It looks like we may have talked ourselves into an overly gloomy outlook for this year's holiday sales. Maybe that was the plan all along -- to depress expectations so much that it would be much easier to exceed them. And it looks like that's what happened -- analysts expected sales to rise 1% in the November/December 2008 shopping season -- and actual Black Friday results were up 3%.
Granted that's not an apples to apples comparison but the International Council of Shopping Centers predicted a 1% rise in same store sales this November/December shopping season and it has already revised its forecast upwards to 2%. For Black Friday, the 3% sales increase amounted to $10.6 billion in sales.
And there were some significant differences across different regions. The South gained the most, 3.4%, over 2007 while in the Northeast sales rose the least, 2.6%.
Nevertheless, other analysts remain gloomy. ShopperTrak has estimated that 9.9% fewer shoppers will descend on stores this November/December shopping season, producing a sales gain of 0.1%. And Gallup suggests that the average individual will spend 29% less, or $616, compared to 2007.
Continue reading Will stocks climb Monday on better than expected Black Friday results?
Posted Nov 29th 2008 4:40PM by Steven Mallas (RSS feed)
Filed under: Consumer experience, Internet, eBay (EBAY), Amazon.com (AMZN), Marketing and advertising, Black Friday
If you thought Black Friday was just for brick-and-mortar retail, think again. The official start of the online shopping rush is the Monday after the Thanksgiving holiday (Cyber Monday is its name), but don't think that companies like Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) are going to wait that long. They're in the game now. And they want your attention. More importantly, they want you to use the virtual shopping carts at their respective sites early and often. It's really crucial this year, because the economy stinks, and growth in spending isn't going to be great.
According to CNBC, Amazon's strategy is to use very low prices as a way of stopping competitors like eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) dead in their electronic tracks. This Christmas season, retailers, whether online or not, may find themselves in a no-win situation. They have to lower prices to encourage people to shop. But quality growth in top-line sales is questionable. When managements see the bad news flow about the global recession, they become scared and want to become even more aggressive in terms of pricing. The strategy may work and it may not. It's a vicious circle. Don't get me wrong, the retail industry faces this problem every year at this time, but you have to agree that the current economic cycle is particularly noxious. It's times like these, however, when retailers should want to offer more than just a value proposition. They should want to offer a differentiated shopping experience, a better selection of items. They should strive to offer up a brand image that makes you want to hit their inventories first. They need to step away from trying to undercut all their competitors and instead figure out how to stock the right merchandise in the right amounts. And when it comes to a business like Amazon, I think there's great opportunity to go beyond low-pricing strategies. Quite frankly, I don't care whether Amazon has the lowest prices or not. I find it easier to do some of my holiday shopping on the site. It saves me time during this busy season, I trust the security of the platform, and I know that the supply chain is efficient and reliable. And I definitely think of Amazon first when looking to do online shopping because of its valuable brand equity.
Continue reading Will Amazon win with its pricing strategy?
Posted Nov 28th 2008 4:56PM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Wal-Mart (WMT)
I have always disliked the moniker 'Black Friday.' Explaining that 'Black Friday' refers to the day that retailers go from losing money to making it strikes me as awkward -- particularly when my first instinct on hearing that phrase is to think of something very bad happening on a Friday.
Which is why today's deadly events combining shopping for the holidays and death seem so strange and sad. This morning, a Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) clerk at a store in Valley Stream, Long Island was trampled to death by a crowd of 2,000 people eager to grab bargains. "The impatient crowd knocked the man to the ground as he opened the doors, leaving a metal portion of the frame crumpled like an accordion," according to AP. If store cameras can identify who trampled the store clerk, criminal charges could be brought against them.
Later in the day, two people were shot dead at a Toys 'R' Us in Southern California. The Riverside Country sheriff's department reported an argument between two teenagers preceded the shooting. A third person, a male, apparently pulled out a gun, according to AP.
Continue reading Deadly Black Friday: One at Wal-Mart, Two at Toys 'R' Us
Posted Nov 28th 2008 10:30AM by Brian White (RSS feed)
Filed under: Competitive strategy, Wal-Mart (WMT), Columns, Best Buy (BBY), , Black Friday
Welcome to the 87th installment of The Wal-Mart Weekly, a column dedicated to bringing you insight, wit, facts, results, opinions, and just a bit of everything else when it comes to a very hot topic these days: Wal-Mart.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) was set to, as usual, be one of the most aggressive discounters this holiday season in order to move as much inventory as possible. Nowhere is there a better yardstick for just how aggressive one could be than by looking at the deals offered on Black Friday.
As I sat down Thanksgiving Day to a little football and a slew of Black Friday ads to study, it became pretty clear that Wal-Mart was aggressive in its pricing, but by no means the most aggressive. Since it seems consumer electronics continue to be a focus area when it comes to holiday retailing, I focused in on that product segment. So, let's delve deeper and really see who was the most aggressive, shall we?
Continue reading Wal-Mart Weekly: Taking stock of Wal-Mart's Black Friday offerings
Posted Nov 27th 2008 2:00PM by Paul Carton (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad news, Black Friday
Consumers are delaying big purchases -- big time.
A ChangeWave consumer spending survey reveals a massive breakdown in the willingness of consumers to buy big-ticket items.
In the survey of 2,763 U.S. consumers, completed Nov. 3, 21% of respondents said they have delayed or canceled a major planned purchase in the past 90 days.
What are the top big ticket items consumers have put on hold?
Here's the not-so-fab five:

It's no surprise that autos top the list.
As one respondent said, "Both of my cars have 80K miles. Usually I would be replacing one of them, but I'm delaying that decision due to the state of the economy."
Continue reading 5 big things consumers aren't buying
Posted Nov 20th 2008 12:57PM by Brian White (RSS feed)
Filed under: Target Corp. (TGT), Best Buy (BBY), Costco Wholesale (COST), Black Friday
As Black Friday approaches just over a week from today, you may be wondering where some of the best deals will be had. Sure, the usual suspects like
Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:
COST),
Best Buy, Inc. (NYSE:
BBY) and
Target Corp. (NYSE:
TGT) will be offering huge discounts on the largest shopping retail day of the year. This year is different: the U.S. is in the midst of a full-blown economic funk. Consumers are not spending, retail prices are way down and layoffs are increasing. Will you be spending like a drunken sailor this holiday season?
Regardless of the precarious economic climate the U.S. and much of the world is in, retailers are not closing up shop for winter. There are
still some great bargains to be had and people will shop for gifts this year, just at a much lower rate than in the past. Just how low a rate remains to be seen, but let's chew on some deals to whet the whistle: Best Buy if offering an eMachines desktop PC with 18.5" LCD monitor and printer for $299 and a Canon Powershot 10 Megapixel digital camera for $199, Target is offering men's cotton sweaters (your choice of neck style) for $10 and a Garmin nuvi 200 GPS system for $119, and CostCo is offering a VTech 3-handset cordless phone system for $39 and a Western Digital portable backup hard drive for $89.
Compared with normal pricing on all those items, there are
savings to be had this year. Will you be out in your car early in the morning hours of Friday morning to snag one of these deals or perhaps another one? Human nature tells us that there will be those of you brave enough to trade time and patience for dollars. If you do take in some bargains this coming Friday, you'll be in a select group, as many of us will be reigning in purchases and will be spending extra wisely. The retailers will thank you, and hopefully their bottom line numbers will show your effort this season.
Posted Nov 15th 2008 12:40PM by Douglas McIntyre (RSS feed)
Filed under: Dell (DELL), Wal-Mart (WMT), Financial Crisis
It appears that there is not much chance for makers of TVs, PCs, and video game systems to have a good holiday season. The consumer's pocket book is empty. Consumer electronics are relatively expensive and they are not items that anyone has to have while the recession roles on.
Enter Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), perhaps the only retailer large enough to change the course of fourth quarter sales for the electronics industry. The question is whether a company, even one as large as Wal-Mart. can make a difference with buyers who may spend as little as possible for the holiday?
According to CNN Money, "Wal-Mart is highlighting flat screen TVs, Blu-ray players, Xbox 360 consoles, and home computers in its much-anticipated Black Friday deals this year."
The news would seem to be positive for the consumer electronics industry, but a look at the numbers shows that it may not be be a terribly big deal. Of Wal-Mart's $97 billion in third quarter revenue, $61 billion came from its U.S. stores. If TVs, PCs, and video games are 1% of the big retailer's sales, that is "only" $610 million. Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), one of dozens of companies selling products in Wal-Mart, has quarterly revenue of over $16 billion. That means that the Wal-Mart sales are spread over so many large companies that even its heft may make very little difference.
No matter what Wal-Mart does, it will hardly make a dent in the troubled consumer electronics industry.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.
Posted Nov 13th 2008 1:15PM by Steven Mallas (RSS feed)
Filed under: Wal-Mart (WMT), Target Corp. (TGT), Best Buy (BBY), Sears Holdings (SHLD)
Do you like shopping at Target (NYSE: TGT)? Many people do. In fact, investors are hoping that so many people like buying things at the bullseye retailer that the company will beat earnings expectations for the third quarter. Target will be reporting on Monday, November 17. What should we expect?
Shareholders should expect a drop in the bottom line. Now, did we need a source to tell us this? Probably not. The consumer is starting to feel scared, there's no doubt about it. I'm sure everyone has anecdotal evidence concerning the fear that is out there. Consumers are afraid that the job cuts being reported in the papers will eventually reach their cubicle, so they're scaling back on spending. So, if Target merely meets the expectation for $0.49 per share next Monday, I'm sure many shareholders will breathe a sigh of relief, even though that will represent about a 12% drop in per-share profit.
I'm not so sure Target will beat, though. For one thing, Brent Archer recently reported on Target's lousy October sales data. They missed Wall Street's mark. Since Target beat the last two quarters; I figure we're due for a miss considering everything that's been going on. We shall see. I'll be interested to see how the margins are doing and what kind of position the company may be in going into Black Friday. And I'll be looking at the comps, of course.
Continue reading Earnings preview: How will Target do in Q3?
Posted Oct 20th 2008 3:19PM by Brian White (RSS feed)
Filed under: Marketing and advertising,
Circuit City Stores Inc. (NYSE:
CC) has apparently joined the 21st century as it has announced it will feature the same retail pricing on its website as in its physical stores. While this is hardly newsworthy, it does point out an area that retailers consistently get wrong when it comes to the customer experience: making sure the experience is the same regardless of which buying channel the consumer lands at.
Why Circuit City would announce something as pointless as price continuity across its stores and website smacks of some kind of holiday desperation for the upcoming sales season that has already started in all reality. While it's not the only retailer to have different pricing on its website and its retail locations, it's probably one of the largest.
Circuit City marketing head Jeff Maynard
told the AP that "it's no secret this holiday season is probably one of the most important ones in our history as a company, and with these equities in place, we feel pretty good about it." From the translation booth, Maynard seems to be saying this is a "do or die" holiday selling season, and that the company may be in slightly better or absolute worse shape come January, after holiday sales figures have been released. It's hard to imagine Circuit City building any kind of good trust by doing something like syncing prices along its various sales channels, but perhaps that's the only remaining chess move the company has.
Posted Sep 22nd 2008 1:57PM by Brian White (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad news, Rumors, Wal-Mart (WMT), Target Corp. (TGT)

With the hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. Government bailouts and the largest mess in decades within the U.S. financial system, will consumers draw back their wallets and purses this holiday season and hurt the U.S. economy even more? Although retailer
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:
WMT) has seen same-store sames growth from the late Spring to now, not all retailers have been as lucky. Sentiment says consumers are leaving non-discount stores and flocking to Wal-Mart and its low prices. No big surprise, really.
This means retailers will have to
1) get aggressive on marketing and promotion that differentiates their brand and positioning, or
2) compete on price and make that known to the shopping public. How about making sure customers know where to find goods (hint: don't change store layouts to accommodate holiday promotions) as well as the old-fashioned value proposition?
Art Hammer from consulting firm QualPro
told Reuters that "What we have seen is that fire sales are not working ... the people who still have money seem to be spending the same total, but are getting a little bit better merchandise or a little bit better service. Wow -- heavy discounts not working in a down economy? Sounds odd, right? But that's the theory. So, as the holiday season gears up for what could be the lousiest season in a decade or more here in a month, we'll see if expert sentiment is correct.
Posted Dec 5th 2007 12:22PM by Brian White (RSS feed)
Filed under: Good news, Industry, Black Friday

A glut of Black Friday pricing promotions, more available shopping days and colder weather has assisted U.S. retailers in bringing back some shine to November same-store retail results. This is no surprise, but it helps the market take a deep breath after weak consumer confidence, a credit crunch that's still in progress and the lack of a "must have" holiday gift item were all worrying retailer watchers a few weeks ago right before Thanksgiving.
U.S. retailers have had a tough year this year (some worse than others) on the
backs of spending pullbacks from many customer groups and tightening wallets. So far, estimates are concluding that November same-store sales results will rise 2.5% for November, ahead of the YTD rate of 2.2% through October of this year -- the slowest in over four years.
Continue reading November retail numbers raised by early Thanksgiving
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