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Crocs is the next Nike

Crocs will be the next Nike. It's a bold statement, I realize, but if any footwear/apparel maker has the chance to become relevant, sustainable and as near-dominating as Nike (NYSE: NKE) has been these past 25 years, it's Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX). Understandably Crocs has a long way to go and a lot of heavy lifting in front of it before it can claim a seat at the mountaintop, like Nike. But the potential is very good as Crocs is emerging as a category-dominant player. Let's do a bit of a review to understand why.

I wrote in my book Stop Losing Money Today that Nike began in the 1970s as a fad/niche play. Nike sold its functional running shoes to the jogging set, but then quickly expanded its offerings to include all athletes in virtually every sport. The shoes were customized to handle the rigors of the individual sport. Nike also expanded its line to be fashionable and cool to wear even when its wearers weren't sweating. The company went north of the ankle to include a full line of T-shirts, warm-up suits, shorts and hundreds of other products. In essence, Nike graduated from a fad/niche player to become a full-blown global phenomenon. The company went public in 1980, and currently has a market capitalization of $27.5 billion and distributes its products through thousands of retail stores, as well as 418 of its own NikeTown stores. Revenues are running at a $17-18 billion run-rate with healthy operating margins of 14%. Nike is truly a great American success story.

Crocs has the same opportunity and it may even be larger.

Continue reading Crocs is the next Nike

The next Google is ... Google!

My BloggingStocks colleague Jon Ogg wrote a piece stating that CNBC's Jim Cramer believes Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) can go to $1,000, or at least $600. You know what? He is absolutely right. Google is the next Google. Let me explain.

Ever since Google went public in August 2004, two out of every three interviews with analysts or other talking heads, whether in print or television, have been pooh-poohing Google as "too expensive" or "it has to slow down" or "it's not sustainable." Get real. These talking heads come right back with their heads shaking after every quarterly report. "Yeah, but, but, it cannot continue..." and the same song plays over and over again. Or we hear about some sharp trader that made a quick $5-10 per share "being short Google." Yeah, the short lasted about 2-5 trading days because no one wants to be short Google heading into its quarterly earnings report.

Google is a monster and it still continues to grow and grow. The parallels exist between Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) during their go-go days, but there are stark differences. Many a portfolio manager or other talking heads missed the major movements in both Cisco and Microsoft because they could not believe the growth rates were any where near sustainable. The growth rates defied gravity for almost 10-12 years running. The world was spending a fortune on technology infrastructure and these two were the leaders.

Google is in the same position -- only it's bigger. The world into which Google sells is virtual. Microsoft and Cisco sold and delivered physical products that needed to be installed and maintained, thus causing some limitation to unfettered growth. Google sells in the virtual world and its customer base is massively larger than Cisco's, and, arguably, Microsoft's. When Google came public many were saying "it might be the next Microsoft." Ladies and gentlemen, I have an announcement for you: Microsoft can only hope to be the next Google!

Continue reading The next Google is ... Google!

Immelt says GE's stock price suffering from "blue chip blues" at shareholder meeting

immeltI'm listening to GE CEO Jeff Immelt speak at the annual shareholder meeting, which began at 10 a.m today. GE graciously decided to broadcast Immelt's remarks over the web (you can see the archived version, yay GE!), even though the actual meeting is only open to shareholders and not bloggers (boo, GE).

Immelt just candidly discussed GE's lagging share price -- no need to hide that in front of an audience of shareholders. He pointed out that the stock has underperformed the market over the past five and one-year periods (but matched the market over the past three years). He attributed that to the "blue chip blues" that many large companies are facing now. (And it's true, mega-cap stocks are getting cheaper as they improve their financial performance, but investors still stay away).

"The company is ahead of the market.," said Immelt. He believes the stock price will eventually follow the strong performance of the company. Big surprise, I know. But he also said Wall Street agrees and pointed to 19 out of 20 analysts that rate GE stock a buy.

To make the folks feel even better, Immelt also told them that he "has skin in the game." He has 1 million shares now and will get lots and lots more if the stock price increases. But I'm going to have to check that detail. He can't possibly have as many as I thought I heard him say.

All this is making me think I really should buy some GE stock (see my bio for more on my holdings and investment strategy). Plus, then I'll be able to attend the shareholder meeting in person next year!

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+20.0310,246.97
NASDAQ-2.982,151.08
S&P 500-0.071,093.01

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 07:50 AM

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