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Is romance the latest recession victim?

Diamond Rings, Tiffany, Blue NileAs John, Paul, George, and Ringo once said, "Money can't buy me love." While true, money can buy long-stemmed roses, expensive dinners, theater tickets, and jewelry. On the flip side, this money can be tucked away for a rainy day -- the fancy floral delivery replaced with daisies from the grocery store, the pricey meal forgone for the cozy neighborhood spot (or fondue at home).

Many of us have long criticized St. Valentine's Day as a holiday conceptualized and fueled by Hallmark and American Greetings (NYSE: AM). But even more of us fall into its trap, spending a nice chunk of change in mid-February to prove our affection to our significant other.

Continue reading Is romance the latest recession victim?

Will Amazon win with its pricing strategy?

If you thought Black Friday was just for brick-and-mortar retail, think again. The official start of the online shopping rush is the Monday after the Thanksgiving holiday (Cyber Monday is its name), but don't think that companies like Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) are going to wait that long. They're in the game now. And they want your attention. More importantly, they want you to use the virtual shopping carts at their respective sites early and often. It's really crucial this year, because the economy stinks, and growth in spending isn't going to be great.

According to CNBC, Amazon's strategy is to use very low prices as a way of stopping competitors like eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) dead in their electronic tracks. This Christmas season, retailers, whether online or not, may find themselves in a no-win situation. They have to lower prices to encourage people to shop. But quality growth in top-line sales is questionable. When managements see the bad news flow about the global recession, they become scared and want to become even more aggressive in terms of pricing. The strategy may work and it may not. It's a vicious circle. Don't get me wrong, the retail industry faces this problem every year at this time, but you have to agree that the current economic cycle is particularly noxious. It's times like these, however, when retailers should want to offer more than just a value proposition. They should want to offer a differentiated shopping experience, a better selection of items. They should strive to offer up a brand image that makes you want to hit their inventories first. They need to step away from trying to undercut all their competitors and instead figure out how to stock the right merchandise in the right amounts. And when it comes to a business like Amazon, I think there's great opportunity to go beyond low-pricing strategies. Quite frankly, I don't care whether Amazon has the lowest prices or not. I find it easier to do some of my holiday shopping on the site. It saves me time during this busy season, I trust the security of the platform, and I know that the supply chain is efficient and reliable. And I definitely think of Amazon first when looking to do online shopping because of its valuable brand equity.

Continue reading Will Amazon win with its pricing strategy?

Analyst initiations: NVDA, ENTR and CLF

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Nvidia, Entropic Comm and Cleveland Cliffs were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Piper initiated Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) with a Neutral rating and $23 target and believes the rate at which the company gained market share over the past two years is unsustainable. The firm expects EPS deceleration over the next few years.
  • Piper believes Entropic Comm (NASDAQ: ENTR) is a key benefactor from the general adoption of high definition video consumer goods, as well as from growth in multi-room DVRs. The firm assumed shares with a Buy rating and $10 target.
  • Cleveland Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) was started with a Buy rating and $135 target at Deutsche Bank. The firm believes CLF is a leveraged play on bulk commodities' momentum.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Option update: Blue Nile volatility at 126 as shares decline 27%

Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE), a leading online retailer of diamonds and jewelry, is recently down $14.64 (or over 27%) to $39.20 in pre-open trading.

NILE management indicated Q1 consumer spending on luxury goods is looking soft, and will likely impact future results.

RBCM has a target price of $55 on NILE. NILE over all option implied volatility of 126 it above its 26-week average of 65 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Blue Nile just sparkles with opportunity

There are stock pull-backs, and then there are stock pull-backs that signal 'opportunity.' Or should one say here just 'sparkles' with opportunity?

Online diamond company Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) is the largest online retailer of certified diamonds and fine jewelry, and part of the reason it attained that status is the company's philosophy: Blue Nile believes choosing the right engagement ring doesn't have to be complicated.

The company's web site is a pillar on which the NILE foundation stands: its structured so that the typical person can navigate carat / cut / clarity / color characteristics of diamonds and ring characteristics with relative ease. A 30-day return policy puts the potential purchaser at ease.


Continue reading Blue Nile just sparkles with opportunity

Analyst downgrades: UQM, NILE, NPSP, MEE and HIG

MOST NOTEWORTHY: UQM Technologies, Blue Nile, NPS Pharmaceuticals, Massey Energy and Hartford Financial were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Merriman downgraded shares of UQM Technologies Inc (AMEX: UQM) to Neutral from Buy after Phoenix Motorcars delayed its electric vehicle manufacturing ramp, as they view the company's Phoenix Motorcars relationship as the primary driver for near-term growth.
  • Citigroup downgraded shares of Blue Nile Inc (NASDAQ: NILE) to Sell from Hold on valuation as they believe near-term risks outweigh rewards. They see risk to Q3 revenue estimates and their analysis suggests an in-line quarter at best.
  • NPS Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: NPSP) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Oppenheimer and to Hold from Buy at Jefferies. Oppenheimer lowered shares following disappointing Gattex data; Jefferies believes the P3 GATTEX results in short bowel syndrome make the chances of successful low-dose approval unpredictable.
  • Friedman Billings downgraded Massey Energy Company (NYSE: MEE) to Underperform from Market Perform based on valuation, 2008/2009 outlook, spinoff of Patriot Coal appears to be a better investment option, and another blow to mountaintop mining and permit issues.
  • JP Morgan removed The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE: HIG) from their Focus List; however, they believe the company's fundamental outlook remains positive and expects strong Q3 results.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Analyst initiations: EMC, NILE, GYI and SONS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: EMC Corp, Blue Nile, Getty Images and Sonus Networks were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) was initiated with a Buy rating and $24 target at Banc of America as they believe the company's core business is undervalued and should benefit from penetration of new market segments. Deutsche Bank views shares of the stock as fully valued at current levels, starting shares off with a Hold rating and $20 target. Jefferies believes the divergence in valuation of core EMC and majority-held VMWare Inc (NYSE: VMW) creates an attractive entry point. The firm started EMC shares with a Buy rating and $25 target.
  • CIBC finds shares of Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) fairly valued and sees challenges as competition increases. The firm started shares with a Sector Performer rating.
  • CIBC also initiated shares of Getty Images Inc (NYSE: GYI) with a Sector Performer rating, as the firm believes the company's earnings visibility is limited while the business model is in transition.
  • Coverage of Sonus Networks Inc (NASDAQ: SONS) was resumed with an Overweight rating and $8 target at Thomas Weisel. Their checks indicate the company is experiencing increased order activity in 2H07, and they expect an improved Q3 followed by a very strong Q4.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Analyst downgrades: Process control sector, RHD, VG, CCE and RIG

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The process control sector, R.H. Donnelley, Vonage, Coca-Cola Enterprises and Transocean were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Baird reduced estimates across the board in the process control sector due to lower expectations for North American industrial and residential construction. The firm downgraded Roper Industries (NYSE: ROP), Regal-Beloit Corp (NYSE: RBC) and Baldor Electric (NYSE: BEZ) to Neutral from Outperform and AO Smith Corporation (NYSE: AOS) to Underperform from Neutral.
  • Goldman downgraded shares of R.H. Donnelley Corporation (NYSE: RHD) to Neutral from Buy after the company updated its 2007 guidance to reflect deteriorating trends in local advertising.
  • Vonage Holdings Corp (NYSE: VG) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Soleil due to liquidity concerns.
  • Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank on valuation and mixed near-term trends.
  • Transocean Inc (NYSE: RIG) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Gabelli. Even though the deepwater market continues to be strong, the firm is concerned regarding the continuing weakness in the jackup market as well as the limited upside potential due to the company's ships being in use through 2009.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Blue Nile (NILE): Build-your-own diamond rings

So you need to buy some diamond jewelry, but don't know anything about the market? That's all right. There's a place online that explains shape, cut, color, clarity, carat weight, certification and setting ... and then let's you design your piece right there on the site. It's the largest online diamond retailer in the world.

Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) sells diamond, platinum, gold, pearl, and sterling silver jewelry on web sites based in the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada. Products include settings, wedding bands, earrings, necklaces, pendants, bracelets, and watches. The Blue Nile web sites showcase in-depth educational materials and online tools that place consumers in control of the jewelry shopping process. Prices are significantly below traditional retail. Tiffany (NYSE: TIF) is a major competitor.

The company pleased investors last week, when it reported Q2 EPS of 23 cents and revenues of $72.1 million. Analysts had been expecting 18 cents and $67.1 million. Management also guided Q3 EPS to 13-15 cents (13 cent consensus), Q3 revenues to $66-$67.5 million ($62.7M consensus), FY07 EPS to 94-99 cents (90 cent consensus) and FY07 revenues to $312-$318 million ($306M consensus). The news popped the shares out of a late-July/early August "cup" into the mid-August "handle" of a Cup & Handle formation. The price is now showing signs of completing the pattern with a bullish rise from the right-hand side of the "handle."

Brokers recommend the shares with three "strong buys," one "buy," eight "holds" and two "sells." Analysts see a 27% growth rate through the next year. The NILE Sales Growth rate (26.67%), EPS Growth rate (27.78%), Return on Assets (16.81%), Return on Investment (30.68%), Return on Equity (31.12%) and Revenue per Employee ($1.77M) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 600 SmallCap Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $33.05 and $98.50. A stop-loss of $73.75 looks good here.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com.

Market highlights for next week: Sprint Nextel (S), Cisco (CSCO) to report

Monday August 6
Tuesday August 7
Wednesday August 8
Thursday August 9
Friday August 10

Newspaper wrap-up 5-16-07: Dell in hot water

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has filed a suit accusing Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) and affiliate Dell Financial Services of deceiving consumers, including fraud, false advertising and deceptive business practices, to increase computer sales, reported the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
  • Alan Greenspan signed Allianz's (NYSE: AZ) Pacific Investment Management, known as Pimco, as his first economic consultant client, according to the Wall Street Journal.
  • Barron's Online's (subscription required) "Inside Scoop" column reported that Blue Nile Inc (NASDAQ: NILE) CEO Mark Vadon sold 250,000 shares and CFO Diance Irvine sold 40,000 shares, with InsiderScore.com's Ben Silverman advising caution on Blue Nile due to the selling.
  • The Financial Times (subscription required) reported that Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) shares rose sharply in after-hours trading yesterday after Edward Lampert, the hedge fund manager who controls Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD), disclosed he had acquired an $800M stake in Citigroup.
WEBSITES:

Newspaper wrap-up 5-14-07: Wal-Mart pushing Skype

MAJOR PAPERS:
OTHER PAPERS:
WEBSITES:

Analyst initiations 5-11-07: DOW, NILE, WINN and ZQK

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Dow Chemical (DOW), Smart Modular (SMOD), Wolverine World Wide (WWW), Win-Dixie Stores (WINN) and Blue Nile (BLUE) were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • UBS is positive on the ethylene cycle over the next two years and believes Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) can beat 2008 consensus estimates, initiating shares with a Buy rating.
  • JMP Securities started Smart Modular (NASDAQ: SMOD) with a Strong Buy as a unit volume growth theme without much dependence on commodity memory chip pricing.
  • Citigroup expects further upside given Wolverine World Wide's (NYSE: WWW) strong portfolio of brands, further growth opportunities through line extensions and international growth. The firm started Wolverine World Wide with a Buy rating and $33 target.
  • Winn-Dixie Stores (NASDAQ: WINN) was started with a Market Perform rating, citing low levels of profitability and unproven ability to drive sustainable profitable sales.
  • American Technology believes the valuation of Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) leaves little room for upside, despite a highly attractive business model and strong fundamentals, and started shares with a Sell rating and $45 target...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Longbow started Mips Tech (NASDAQ: MIPS) with a Buy rating and $12 target.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Bidz.com can't get bids for its IPO

Bidz.com, an online auction site for jewelry, filed for its IPO about a year ago.

Yet, the deal never got traction and the company withdrew its offering this week. Interestingly enough, the company said the reason is that it could not get some of its shareholders to agree to a lock-up.

To me, this is kind of strange. Lock-ups are normal in IPOs. Basically, they prevent shareholders from selling their stock for a period of time (usually six months after the offering).

And, even when a lock-up expires, there are usually continuing restrictions on selling stock (such as during black-out periods and so on).

OK, so if Bidz.com's shareholders are very interested in selling their stock, how does canceling the offering help things?

I really don't know.

But, given the intense competition that Bidz.com faces -- such as from eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), uBid, Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) and so on -- I have to suspect there are other reasons for canceling the offering.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

Sweatheart stocks for Valentine's Day

In the spirit of Valentine's Day, Beth Gaston Moon, an analyst from Schaeffer's Investment Research, reviews a trio of companies that are poised to benefit from the sentiments surrounding the annual lovers' holiday.

Here, she looks at Tiffany & Co. (NYSE:TIF), with its coveted blue boxes; online jewelery retailer, Blue Nile (NASDAQ:NILE); and Limited Brands (NYSE:LTD), with its Victoria's Secret line.

The analyst explains, "The traditional robin-egg blue color of Tiffany & Co. is instantly recognizable, particularly among those with especially generous mates. The luxury retailer has been pointed skyward since early August, tacking on more than 40% and hitting a new 52-week high above the support of its 10-week moving average."

As a contrarian, she adds, "On a sentiment front, TIF could be in the midst of a short-covering rally. Last month, the number of TIF shares sold short dropped 12% as frustrated bears moved toward the exits.

"Nearly 7% of the stock's float remains shorted, however, amounting to a short-interest ratio of about seven days to cover. A continued 'short squeeze' could supply TIF with additional buying momentum. The March 40 call looks like an appealing, though slightly aggressive, play at this juncture."


Continue reading Sweatheart stocks for Valentine's Day

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-3.4710,223.47
NASDAQ-9.282,144.78
S&P 500-2.651,090.43

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 11:30 AM

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