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Chasing Value: Looked at Boeing, Then Looked Away

In considering my 2011 picks I took a look at Boeing Co (BA), interested by the story. There are many ways for this company's future to play out in a very positive scenario.

The airline industry has been rejuvenated as of late -- and that is good news for aircraft manufacturers. The Republicans won the house majority and that usually improves the fortunes of defense contractors.

The 787 Dreamliner, now three years and counting behind schedule, is in test flight mode. The plane portrayed as a dream to travelers and airline companies has turned into a nightmare of sorts, or at least the dream has changed. Boeing is dreaming of the day they start manufacturing and selling and profiting from all their labor.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Looked at Boeing, Then Looked Away

Hexcel (HXL): Composite gains?

"We've looked at several ways to play anticipated growth in wind energy; we've also considered titanium makers for that industry's ties to the production of lightweight, modern aircraft," notes Bill Martin.

In his BullMarket.com, he explains, "While the two trends might not appear to have much in common at first glance, Hexcel Corp. (NYSE: HXL) offers a way to play both the aircraft and wind markets.

"The connection is the lightweight, composite materials Hexcel makes that are used by producers in both sectors. Hexcel develops and manufactures advanced structural materials.

"It is the largest U.S. producer of carbon fiber; the world's largest weaver of reinforcement fabrics; and the number-one producer of composite materials.

"Its product was initially developed for the aerospace industry, but is now used in a wide range of applications -- from golf clubs to satellite arrays, and from the rotor blades of wind turbines to life-saving monocoques for Formula 1 race cars.

"It's been a rollercoaster ride for Hexcel's stock in the past 12 months. The shares hit their one-year peak of $27.19 in December 2007; by January 22nd they had plummeted to $17.. The shares rebounded through May, only to fade again. Year to date, HXL is off about 15%.

Continue reading Hexcel (HXL): Composite gains?

Is Boeing's Dreamliner facing further delays?

FT.com reports that Boeing's (NYSE: BA) biggest customer believes that its 787 Dreamliner will be delayed even further due to a redesign of the part of the plane where the wings attach to the fuselage. Steven Udvar-Hazy, chairman of International Lease Finance Corporation (ILFC), the 787's biggest customer warned that the 787's first deliveries would be delayed for at least another six months because its center wing box – which holds the wings in place – needed to be redesigned. Yvonne Leach of Boeing said: "We are doing some redesign work but things are more complex than what he said. There's a whole load of things going on."

On the plus side, Boeing has received 857 orders for the 787 totaling $140 billion. On the minus side, Boeing originally planned to deliver the 787 in May 2008. I have lost track of the precise number of announced delays in the 787's delivery. Hazy said he expected delivery of the long-range, 250-300 seat jet to be delayed until the end of the third quarter of next year. Boeing's most recent guidance was that the Dreamliner would be ready "early" in 2009.

Many of the people I interviewed for my book on Boeing are not very concerned about the delay -- saying that Boeing is committed to getting it right and that delays are normal for a new program with new technology. But with the penalty payments for late delivery, the low prices needed to close deals, and the higher costs required to fix the problems, Joseph Nadoll of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) suggests a steady "eating away at program margins and long-term program profitability."

Boeing stock -- which lost 4% of its value yesterday -- was up about 1% in after-hours markets.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned and is writing a book on Boeing.

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Last updated: February 12, 2012: 01:42 PM

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