bond market posts
FeedPosted Oct 3rd 2010 11:40AM by Connie Madon (RSS feed)
Filed under: Market Matters, Economic Data, Federal Reserve
The world of international finance is a complex web. The U.S. is still the powerhouse when it comes to gross domestic product. Yet, while perched on top of the heap, the U.S. faces major problems with high-level debt and unemployment.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is faced with having to issue massive amounts of debt just to keep pace with the growing deficits. Now the Fed is planning another round of stimulus by buying more treasuries, dubbed QE2.
Continue reading Why Would Any Country Buy U.S. Treasuries?
Posted Sep 9th 2010 6:00PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Politics
The 2001 Bush income tax cut is one of those issues whose fate has been sealed by objective economic conditions.
Simply, if the U.S. economy had registered robust growth during the final two years of the Bush administration, and no other negative economic events occurred, the tax cut, which will increase the deficit by $336 billion this fiscal year, $295 billion in fiscal 2011, and by more than $320 billion per year through fiscal 2019, perhaps would have had a chance of being extended.
Continue reading The 2001 Bush Income Tax Cut: A Major Policy Mistake
Posted Aug 20th 2010 2:00PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Financial Crisis

Will Greece be able to pay an estimated
€340 billion or $431 billion in debt in 2013, post intervention, up from the current €270 billion or $342 billion today?
The calculation here is that Greece, which is presently dependent on International Monetary Fund assistance to meet its obligations, will be able to do it, but it will be a close call.
Investors presently demand about 10.6% from Greece to borrow money for 10 years, while fellow eurozone nation Germany, obviously in a magnitude better fiscal position, pays 3.35%. In contrast, the United States
pays just 2.56%.
Continue reading Will Greece Be Able to Pay Back Its Debt?
Posted Jul 29th 2010 2:00PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Financial Crisis

Experienced investors know that even the most-sobering economic reports can contain 'gems' or small-but-significant, positive data points.
The U.S. Federal Reserve's latest
Beige Book report on the economy is a classic example. The Fed confirmed that the U.S. economic recovery had slowed in the second quarter, with regions reporting uneven levels of growth.
The gem? The recovery, although in low gear, nevertheless remains fast enough for commercial borrowers to service their debt, and this is helping to stabilize the commercial debt market.
Continue reading Ray of Light: Risk Appetite Has Increased
Posted Jul 22nd 2010 4:30PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Currency

On the cusp of stress tests for Europe's banks, the continent may have already passed a major stress test -- one for the euro currency, Bloomberg News
reported Thursday. A scant two months ago, the dominant concern among institutional investors was not the return on their investment in European government bonds, but the return
of their investment.
Institutional investors drove up interest rates for debt-plagued nations Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Ireland, and banker-to-banker distrust increased.
Continue reading Has the Euro Passed Its Own Stress Test?
Posted Apr 1st 2010 10:50AM by Connie Madon (RSS feed)
Filed under: Market Matters, Financial Crisis
They call themselves bond vigilantes. They are investors who are demanding higher yields at U.S. Treasury auctions.
Treasury auctions were going along quite smoothly until last week. Inflation is low, the housing market is in a slump and unemployment is at near record levels. All of this mixture is the stuff that low interest rates are made of.
Last week, the Greek debt crisis brought the problem of too much debt front and center. Now, investors are looking at the U.S. and see a mountain of fiscal debt that needs financing. The huge U.S. debt, $1.7 trillion, is making investors reappraise the yields on U.S. treasuries.
Continue reading Investors Demand Higher Yields on U.S. Treasuries
Posted Sep 18th 2009 4:30PM by John Jagerson (RSS feed)
Filed under: Other Issues, Market Matters

High yield is a nice way of saying "junk" when talking about bonds. These bonds are issued by firms who must pay a higher interest rate when raising capital than those companies that issue bonds that qualify as investment grade. Those higher interest rates are attractive to investors and lately demand for high yield bonds has led to a very nice rally in junk bond funds like the
iShares High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (
HYG).
Today, HYG is finally pausing in its uptrend as investors take some profits off the table across the bond market. Investors are concerned about the fact that the Treasury plans to flood the $112 billion worth of new debt into the market next week. That will be a record auction amount and could put temporary downward pressure on bond prices.
Continue reading High yield bond funds take a break
Posted Jun 18th 2009 3:00PM by Connie Madon (RSS feed)
Filed under: Market Matters, Economic Data
What is the Philadelphia Federal Reserve index? First we should say that the Philly Fed Index, as it is called, measures business activity for the Mid-Atlantic region. During the recent financial crisis, the index has been solidly in the minus column with a reading of -22.6 in May and a median forecast of -17.0. Minus readings indicate a contraction in business activity, while plus readings indicate that business activity is picking up.
Surprise! The most recent reading came in at -2.2. While this is still a minus reading, its a big jump from the consensus reading of the median -17.0. This means that, while business activity is still weak, it is picking up at a more rapid pace than analysts had expected.
Continue reading Bonds drop as the Philly Fed index rises
Posted Mar 18th 2009 4:40PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Ford Motor (F), Citigroup Inc. (C), Bank of America (BAC), Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Amer Intl Group (AIG), Politics, Recession, Financial Crisis

Investor Jim Rogers, noted for his expertise in commodities, is someone Wall Street professionals, business executives, and economists alike pay close attention to, as he's frequently been ahead-of-the-curve regarding market and investment trends.
Still, that's not to say that Rogers sometimes can't overdo it a bit and/or does not get it wrong.
A recent chat Rogers had
with Bloomberg News is an example of the latter, as the talk yielded more rhetoric, half-truths, and flat out absurd statements and not a whole not of illumination.
Continue reading Inaction and a financial crisis don't mix
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