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Bernanke: Failure to Raise Debt Ceiling Could Be 'Catastrophic'

Ben BernankeThe past week's data-point-of-consequence for investors was delivered by none other than the head of the world's most powerful central bank. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke underscored the nation's need to raise the debt ceiling.

Speaking at a National Press Club luncheon in Washington Thursday, Bernanke said delays in raising the debt ceiling limit, currently $14.3 trillion, could have "catastrophic" consequences, Reuters reported.

Continue reading Bernanke: Failure to Raise Debt Ceiling Could Be 'Catastrophic'

Is Now a Good Time to Invest in a Home?

A frequent question voiced in dinner party circles in this neck of the woods (the metropolitan New York City area) is, 'Is now a good time to consider buying or investing in a home?'

Well, the latest S&P Case Shiller home price index suggests that home prices are likely to remaining sluggish -- selected, niche market gains, with flattish prices in most other markets -- through at least mid-2011. Hence, from a home price standpoint, the bias in tipped toward waiting a quarter or two, if you do not have to purchase a home.

Continue reading Is Now a Good Time to Invest in a Home?

Why Would Any Country Buy U.S. Treasuries?

U.S. Federal ReserveThe world of international finance is a complex web. The U.S. is still the powerhouse when it comes to gross domestic product. Yet, while perched on top of the heap, the U.S. faces major problems with high-level debt and unemployment.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is faced with having to issue massive amounts of debt just to keep pace with the growing deficits. Now the Fed is planning another round of stimulus by buying more treasuries, dubbed QE2.

Continue reading Why Would Any Country Buy U.S. Treasuries?

The 2001 Bush Income Tax Cut: A Major Policy Mistake

George BushThe 2001 Bush income tax cut is one of those issues whose fate has been sealed by objective economic conditions.

Simply, if the U.S. economy had registered robust growth during the final two years of the Bush administration, and no other negative economic events occurred, the tax cut, which will increase the deficit by $336 billion this fiscal year, $295 billion in fiscal 2011, and by more than $320 billion per year through fiscal 2019, perhaps would have had a chance of being extended.

Continue reading The 2001 Bush Income Tax Cut: A Major Policy Mistake

Will Greece Be Able to Pay Back Its Debt?

Greek and EU flagsWill Greece be able to pay an estimated €340 billion or $431 billion in debt in 2013, post intervention, up from the current €270 billion or $342 billion today?

The calculation here is that Greece, which is presently dependent on International Monetary Fund assistance to meet its obligations, will be able to do it, but it will be a close call.

Investors presently demand about 10.6% from Greece to borrow money for 10 years, while fellow eurozone nation Germany, obviously in a magnitude better fiscal position, pays 3.35%. In contrast, the United States pays just 2.56%.

Continue reading Will Greece Be Able to Pay Back Its Debt?

Ray of Light: Risk Appetite Has Increased

Experienced investors know that even the most-sobering economic reports can contain 'gems' or small-but-significant, positive data points.

The U.S. Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book report on the economy is a classic example. The Fed confirmed that the U.S. economic recovery had slowed in the second quarter, with regions reporting uneven levels of growth.

The gem? The recovery, although in low gear, nevertheless remains fast enough for commercial borrowers to service their debt, and this is helping to stabilize the commercial debt market.

Continue reading Ray of Light: Risk Appetite Has Increased

Has the Euro Passed Its Own Stress Test?

On the cusp of stress tests for Europe's banks, the continent may have already passed a major stress test -- one for the euro currency, Bloomberg News reported Thursday. A scant two months ago, the dominant concern among institutional investors was not the return on their investment in European government bonds, but the return of their investment.

Institutional investors drove up interest rates for debt-plagued nations Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Ireland, and banker-to-banker distrust increased.

Continue reading Has the Euro Passed Its Own Stress Test?

U.S. 10-Year Yield Falls to 3.14% on Flight-to-Safety

Another day of concerns for investors, and another day that short-term U.S. interest rates fall. U.S. Treasury prices jumped Tuesday, sending the yield on the 10-year note down six basis points to a paltry 3.14% -- the lowest interest rate in more than a year.

It's a classic flight-to-safety response by investors, who are exiting higher-risk positions in emerging markets and commodities, and piling in to the dollar and dollar-denominated investments, and Japan's yen.

Continue reading U.S. 10-Year Yield Falls to 3.14% on Flight-to-Safety

Investors Demand Higher Yields on U.S. Treasuries

They call themselves bond vigilantes. They are investors who are demanding higher yields at U.S. Treasury auctions.

Treasury auctions were going along quite smoothly until last week. Inflation is low, the housing market is in a slump and unemployment is at near record levels. All of this mixture is the stuff that low interest rates are made of.

Last week, the Greek debt crisis brought the problem of too much debt front and center. Now, investors are looking at the U.S. and see a mountain of fiscal debt that needs financing. The huge U.S. debt, $1.7 trillion, is making investors reappraise the yields on U.S. treasuries.

Continue reading Investors Demand Higher Yields on U.S. Treasuries

Bermuda Stock Exchange Tries to Forget 2009

The Bermuda Stock Exchange is looking for a comeback this year. For 2009, the shares traded on the BSX were off close to 40%, reflecting the brutality of the financial crisis on the island known primarily for its insurance business (oh, and people go on vacation there, too ... and not just insurance people). In 2010, the BSX sees catastrophe bonds and other insurance-linked securities as fundamental to a strong year. A BSX statement reads, "The BSX's listing business has remained buoyant and the BSX has made continued progress in entering and supporting the insurance linked security space." With the 2009 Insurance Amendment Act approved last October, Bermuda hopes to lure cat bond listings away from the Cayman Islands Stock Exchange.

Continue reading Bermuda Stock Exchange Tries to Forget 2009

Divergence Between Stock and Bond Returns Puts Pressure on the Bond Market

Last year saw one of the biggest stock rallies in history. Last year also saw bond yields fall by 3.72% on average. Investors who ran to the bond market for safety in 2008 and early 2009 saw their investments drop, while the risk takers who bought stocks are sitting pretty.

All of this was happening while the Federal Reserve sold $2.11 trillion of notes and bonds. The market was supported by the Fed's purchase of $300 billion of the $2.11 trillion in notes, bonds and inflated-related securities. Foreign demand was strong. Indirect bidders, who include foreign buyers, bought 45% of $1.1917 trillion in U.S. notes and bonds, up 29% from last year.

Continue reading Divergence Between Stock and Bond Returns Puts Pressure on the Bond Market

High yield bond funds take a break

High yield is a nice way of saying "junk" when talking about bonds. These bonds are issued by firms who must pay a higher interest rate when raising capital than those companies that issue bonds that qualify as investment grade. Those higher interest rates are attractive to investors and lately demand for high yield bonds has led to a very nice rally in junk bond funds like the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (HYG).

Today, HYG is finally pausing in its uptrend as investors take some profits off the table across the bond market. Investors are concerned about the fact that the Treasury plans to flood the $112 billion worth of new debt into the market next week. That will be a record auction amount and could put temporary downward pressure on bond prices.

Continue reading High yield bond funds take a break

Bad news triggers a rally in the bond market

Unlike the stock market, the bond market thrives on "bad" news. Why is this? The main reason is the money trail. Investors are quick to move their money from stocks into bonds when something bad happens.

Yesterday we had plenty of bad news. The U.S. job market lost 467,000 jobs, a 26-year high. Now to add fuel to the fire, wages are dropping due to layoffs and shortened work weeks (WSJ subscription required). Fewer people are working, which means less money that consumers have to spend. That signals a slower economy.

Continue reading Bad news triggers a rally in the bond market

Bonds drop as the Philly Fed index rises

What is the Philadelphia Federal Reserve index? First we should say that the Philly Fed Index, as it is called, measures business activity for the Mid-Atlantic region. During the recent financial crisis, the index has been solidly in the minus column with a reading of -22.6 in May and a median forecast of -17.0. Minus readings indicate a contraction in business activity, while plus readings indicate that business activity is picking up.

Surprise! The most recent reading came in at -2.2. While this is still a minus reading, its a big jump from the consensus reading of the median -17.0. This means that, while business activity is still weak, it is picking up at a more rapid pace than analysts had expected.

Continue reading Bonds drop as the Philly Fed index rises

Inaction and a financial crisis don't mix

Investor Jim Rogers, noted for his expertise in commodities, is someone Wall Street professionals, business executives, and economists alike pay close attention to, as he's frequently been ahead-of-the-curve regarding market and investment trends.

Still, that's not to say that Rogers sometimes can't overdo it a bit and/or does not get it wrong.

A recent chat Rogers had with Bloomberg News is an example of the latter, as the talk yielded more rhetoric, half-truths, and flat out absurd statements and not a whole not of illumination.

Continue reading Inaction and a financial crisis don't mix

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 11, 2012: 04:23 PM

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