Your mission, should you decide to accept it, Mr. Phelps, is to boost the economy and increase employment but not allow inflation to run rampant. As usual, the secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions should you fail. This message will self-destruct in five seconds. Good luck, Mr. Phelps. Or should that be Mr. Bernanke?

That, in a nut shell, is the fine line the Fed must walk. It has to get the economy going and more people back to work, mostly by pumping money into the economy. But it can't put too much money into the system or inflation will run rampant. Right now, the presses are running 24/7, and the money is flying out the Treasury's and Fed's windows, seemingly to almost anyone walking underneath them. The stimulus package is in full swing. But what signs are there that it's working?

When PIMCO's Bill Gross speaks, bond traders listen. That certainly happened today when he gave an interview on CNBC.com.

Basically, he predicts a sluggish economy next year. Expect the real estate market to be a big drag, he says. And expect to see more job losses.

One more thing: The bad times will be worldwide.

If all this happens, the Fed will get aggressive and slash interest rates. How much? Try 2-3% on the 10-year Treasury.

Sounds kind of crazy, huh? Except that Gross is not a crazy guy. After all, he manages the biggest bond fund.

If you want to check out some of Gross's analysis, you can check out the PIMCO website.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and operates DealProfiles.com.