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BNP Paribas Says the Pound Will 'Fall off the Cliff'

The March British pound futures traded at $1.5928 on Thursday. BNP Paribas, an international commodities trading firm, predicts that the pound will fall to $1.5730 in the coming weeks and then to $1.40.

Analyst Ian Stannard, said that the pound could "fall off the cliff." Some high-profile bond investors, including Bill Gross's Pimco investments, are pulling back from the purchase of Gilts (British bonds). Some investors are even pulling out completely.

Continue reading BNP Paribas Says the Pound Will 'Fall off the Cliff'

Ambac (ABK) may not split itself in two

After all of the talk of splitting itself into two pieces, a "bad" part and a "good" part, Ambac (NYSE: ABK) will probably operate as only one company. The theory had been that the healthy muni-bond insurance operation should be separated from the business that insured more risky derivative instruments.

Breaking the company in half always had a number of complications, the worst of which is what would happen to common shareholders? Would they get shares in the "good" part of the business? Perhaps, but outside firms putting in money might want to keep that for themselves. Shares in the "bad" part of the business would probably be worthless.

Another issue is the legal troubles a split might cause. According to the FT, this raised the "possibility of lawsuits by banks and other groups that bought insurance on CDOs and other structured products."

Ambak is almost certainly going to have to live with its two businesses under that same roof. If the structured finance business continues to fall apart, the real question is how much more money will the insurance company have to raise.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 27wallst.com.

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Last updated: May 27, 2012: 08:41 PM

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