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Benchmark 10-year note trades at a new high, depressing markets

U.S. long-term interest rates hit a high Wednesday with the yield on 10-year notes at 4%. Yields jumped 4 basis points, the biggest jump since 2003. This was up from 3.6% just one week ago. Mortgage lenders use the benchmark 10-year note to price their mortgage rates.

Four percent is the magic number for traders. When the yield reached 4%, traders moved in to buy. The higher rate also took its toll on the stock market, with the Dow down 24.04 to 8739.02.

Continue reading Benchmark 10-year note trades at a new high, depressing markets

What is causing the rally in the junk bond market?

There are strange goings on in the markets these days. The latest catch 22 is the rally in junk bonds. Bloomberg reports that "The lowest rated companies that may not be able to afford avoiding bankruptcy and exchanging or buying back debt at the lowest prices on record." That is pushing the prices of junk bonds up in the biggest rally ever. The flip side is that this practice is the higher prices are crowding out some of the neediest companies

Here are some examples:

  • The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) owns Freescale Semiconductor Inc. In March, Blackstone wiped away $1.9 billion of Freescale's debt by offering investors 32 cents on the dollar in loans. Since then the securities have tripled to 54.1 cents on the dollar. Now, the chip maker still has $7.5 billion of debt and would need to do it at much higher prices.

Continue reading What is causing the rally in the junk bond market?

The stakes are high for US government bonds

This post was written by Minyanville contributor James Kostohryz.

As per the trade I laid out yesterday, with today's durable goods orders number that was significantly better than expected, we might be looking at S&P 930 today rather than sub 900 if the market had not gotten blindsided by yesterday's sudden plunge in long bonds. That's what stops are for.

But let's put this in perspective: A 12-point drop between yesterday's high of around 913 and the current level of 901 is small potatoes relative to what is at stake here.

Continue reading The stakes are high for US government bonds

Serious Money: ETF that's better than cash

During the last eight months, with the market bouncing up and down, there have been times when I did not look too smart buying stocks through it all.

Of course I looked the most foolish on March 9, when I wrote the prophetic Nostradamus was a punk! Have we reached bottom? Some folks were commenting that they were staying in cash until the DJIA dropped to 5,000. Today that looks highly improbable, even if the market gives something back over the next few months.

There must be some readers that also have contrarian instincts and made good money this year. This is a reminder to take something off the table. It's time to book some gains. We all did great in 1999 and 2000 only to give it all back and then some. Don't let that happen to you again!

Continue reading Serious Money: ETF that's better than cash

Investors afraid of missing out are jumping back into equities

Wow! Did you know that the the Nasdaq has moved up to or beyond its 200-day moving average? If there's one number that turns traders on it is the 200-day moving average. It creates a new confidence that all is well and it's safe to jump back into the stock market.

We've had two months of steady gains, and now investors who didn't have the courage of buy at the low are in panic mode. They want on board. They want a piece of the action. This is causing more sustained buying. We are just about finishing the mess of bank "stress tests" and this is adding a sigh of relief for the banking sector.

Continue reading Investors afraid of missing out are jumping back into equities

Buy a junk bond, get a bailout

A committee of General Motors (NYSE: GM) bondholders hoping that the United States government will continue to bailout the company without wiping them out is pleading for mercy: "GM bondholders are not a collection of Wall Street banks," the committee wrote. "Many of these bonds are owned by average citizens, who purchased them to support their own retirement and college expenses and other critical needs."

Continue reading Buy a junk bond, get a bailout

Federal Reserve buys bonds

There is an old saying: "never fight the Fed." If you had been short this bond market, you probably could be wiped out in one afternoon. When the Federal Reserve made its announcement a short time ago that they were buying long term securities the futures on the long bond jumped 4.25 basis points, or more that $4000.00 on just one contract. If you were long say 10 contracts you would be sitting on a $40,000 profit this afternoon.

Continue reading Federal Reserve buys bonds

Pfizer raises a healthy $13.5 billion

More and more, there are signs that the capital markets are finding equilibrium. For example, Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) was able to raise $13.5 billion in debt financing this week. The structure was a five-part issue of notes.

Of course, Pfizer needs the cash to pull off its $64.2 billion acquisition of Wyeth (NYSE: WYE).

Continue reading Pfizer raises a healthy $13.5 billion

Doomsday Scenario: Bonds hate this rally, Russia rearms, LA real estate woes

With "Bonus Rage" burning up the media wires, people actually seem to be forgetting about the really grim news out there. Stocks may be running up, but bonds and the credit markets show no such optimism, as the ever grim Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge points out. Since bond investors tend to be smarter than stock investors, this is an ominous warning sign in the face of the huge four day rally underway.

Continue reading Doomsday Scenario: Bonds hate this rally, Russia rearms, LA real estate woes

Bank of England cuts rates and buys bonds

In a startling move, the Bank of England cut interest rates to .5% and announced plans to buy 75 billion pounds of gilts (the British equivalent of the U.S. Treasury bond). Gilt prices rose sharply, especially longer term maturities.

This had the effect of changing the slope of the yield curve (longer term maturities gained ground over shorter term ones). The Bank of England initiated these moves in an effort to bring down medium- and long-term rates.

Continue reading Bank of England cuts rates and buys bonds

Markets sink, unemployment soars -- What do I do next?

If you are sitting in your office or at home thinking: "What am I going to do next? The economy is getting worse by the day," you are not alone. For the first time in a generation real fear has gripped the nation. This was reflected in the action of the markets since the beginning of the month.

Global markets are at multiyear lows, as is the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial average. The S&P index sank below the psychological 800 level.

This past week, attention was focused on central and eastern Europe, where the recession is gaining momentum on the downside. Now add to this mix the banking crisis. Investors are fearing a lack of solvency among the big international banks. Credit default swaps are rising, with Korea hitting a three-month high. Then you have the crisis in Japan, where GDP is falling by an annualized rate of 12.7% in the past three months.

Continue reading Markets sink, unemployment soars -- What do I do next?

Cisco pulls in $4 billion . . . indicating better credit markets?

Maybe the federal government is finally getting results with its maneuverings?

Well, there are definitely signs that it's getting somewhat easier for companies to raise debt capital – at least for those that have rock-solid balance sheets, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Take Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO). On Monday, the company pulled off a bond issue for a cool $4 billion.

Hey, at some point, investors need to make money, right? So why not do some deals with sterling companies like Cisco?

Continue reading Cisco pulls in $4 billion . . . indicating better credit markets?

Kohl's surviving the recession

The retail sales segment of the economy continued its dismal performance in January. Overall, same-store sale gains in January were the weakest for a January period since Thomson Reuters began publishing data in 2000.

In a classic through-the-looking-glass reaction, the market has chosen to view the report as positive, as sales did not decline as much as securities firms' analysts had expected. As a result, stock prices for many of the retailers have actually increased.

Continue reading Kohl's surviving the recession

Humana sputters, then hums

Humana (NYSE: HUM) reported earnings below analysts' expectations for the fourth quarter of 2008, spurring a quick sell-off of more than 3%.

The stock quickly recovered, due in part to the better-than-expected ISM report, and closed up almost 6% at $40.13.

Humana is one of the nations' largest providers of employer-based health care plans. Humana offers group health and dental plans for individuals and serves the health care needs of military families and seniors through a series of specialized plans.

The fourth-quarter earnings report disappointed analysts initially, as the report revealed a larger-than-expected decline in earnings of 28% from the previous year's fourth quarter.

Continue reading Humana sputters, then hums

Picking the right bond fund to stash your cache and grow it safely

In these times of economic uncertainty many investors are taking a closer look at bonds and bond funds. But if individual investors are looking for a safe place to grow their savings, they should select funds carefully.

As the New York Times observed in a December 26 piece, Older Investors Should Examine the Risks in Bonds, "Because conditions may worsen before they improve, older investors should check that their bond investments are indeed what they thought they were--and that they fit their tolerance for risk." The article quoted Financial Counselors bond manager Gary Cloud: "We are in a 2 to 3 percent world, and if they want to earn more than that they need to proceed cautiously."

A WSJ January 4 piece In Search of Wall Street Bargains, carried Morningstar analyst Lawrence Jones' assessment of 2008 as an "absolutely brutal year" for most bond investors and observed: "Bond prices tumbled as investors anxious about the economic slowdown dumped corporate bonds and other obligations that carry the risk of default." Meanwhile, Treasury securities and the funds composed of them "delivered strong returns as investors bid up the prices of these safe havens."

Also on January 4, a Chicago Tribune piece, Bonds may be a shield, but they're still risky, echoed this theme. Noting that Steve Savage, editor of No-Load Fund Analyst, has advised individual investors to consider corporate bond funds and even high-yield bond funds, the Tribune warned, "Whenever yields are high, there is a good chance that financially stressed companies won't be able to repay their debts. In other words, bonds would default and investors would lose money."

Continue reading Picking the right bond fund to stash your cache and grow it safely

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Last updated: July 11, 2009: 02:15 AM

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