Monday July 9

• The Chicago Board of Trade (NYSE: BOT) and Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc (NYSE: CME) to hold a special shareholder meeting in Chicago about merging at 4pm.
• Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO) to hold a business update at 4:30pm.
• Alcoa Inc (NYSE: AA) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 5pm.

Tuesday July 10

• Electronic Entertainment Expo, or E3, to be held from July 10-July 13 in Santa Monica, California.
• The Home Depot Inc (NYSE: HD) to release a 2007 Sales Update at 9am.
• Sealy Corporation (NYSE: ZZ) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 5pm.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CME) opened at $533.30. So far today the stock has hit a low of $533.30 and a high of $539.45. As of 10:55, CME is trading at $535.87, up $2.47 (0.5%).

After hitting a one year high of $596.30 in January, the stock has trended slightly downward over the past six months, bouncing off support at $500 in May. Chicago Board of Trade (NYSE: BOT) management is urging shareholders to vote for a merger with CME rather than the competing offer from Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE). A vote will be held on July 9. Recent technical indicators for CME have been bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a very positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $500 range.CME hasn't been below $500 for more than a day since November and has shown support around $508 recently. This trade could be risky if broader markets take a tumble, but CME is not scheduled to report earnings until the week after July expiration.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in CME, BOT, or ICE.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Airtran Holdings Inc (NYSE: AAI), UAL Corporation (NASDAQ: UAUA) and the REIT sector were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Calyon downgraded shares of Airtran Holdings to Neutral from Add, citing concerns with AAI's yield trends.
• The firm also downgraded shares of UAL Corp to Add from Buy based on higher fuel prices and slightly weaker-than-expected RASM increases.
• Stifel downgraded the REIT Sector citing rising interest rates and mutual fund outflows, among other reasons. Companies that include Cedar Shopping Centers Inc (NYSE: CDR), Kimco Realty Corporation (NYSE: KIM), Kite Realty Group Trust (NYSE: KRG), Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust (NYSE: RPT), Simon Property Group Inc (NYSE: SPG) and Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc (NYSE: SKT) were downgraded to Hold from Buy.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Morgan Joseph downgraded shares of Penn National Gaming Inc (NASDAQ: PENN) to Hold from Buy on valuation.
• CBOT Holdings Inc (NYSE: BOT) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
• JP Morgan downgraded shares of Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX) to Underweight from Neutral, as the firm believes the company's growth will be impacted by Blockbuster Inc's (NYSE: BBI) Total Access offer.

What do Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFMI) and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) have in common? What do Wild Oats Markets Inc. (NASDAQ: OATS), Borders Group Inc. (NYSE: BGP) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) have in common? I'll give you a hint -- they all want to merge with some other company in their field. But the mergers are all very different.

Give me a break, one cannot compare the proposed merger between Whole Foods and Wild Oats to that of Sirius and XM Satellite Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR). I know many Sirius and XM investors will lash out at me for this, but come on people! Sarah Gilbert made a very good case yesterday why the merger of the trendy food stores doesn't have antitrust issues: "There is a plentiful supply of organic and natural produce and other products available at both small local cooperatives and farmer's markets and large supermarket chains," least of all Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT).

Sirius and XM? Now that's a different story altogether. They are the only two satellite radio companies. There are no smaller competitors, or large competitors with a small market share. That's all there is -- Sirius and XM. Sure, the argument that the market includes iPods, internet and HD radios is very creative and may even work, but let's call it what it is -- a desperate attempt by the two companies to get their merger approved. They've even hired a lobbying firm.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that President Bush picked former advisor Robert Zoellick to take over the World Bank from Paul Wolfowitz; Mr. Zoellick, now a vice chairman at Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS), was a trade representative and deputy secretary of state.
• The Institutional Shareholder Service has advised shareholders of medical device maker Biomet Inc (NASDAQ: BMET) to turn down a $10.9B private equity deal for the company, according to the Wall Street Journal.
• The Financial Times reported that the IntercontinentalExchange Inc (NYSE: ICE) has signed an exclusive deal with the CBOT Holdings Inc (NYSE: BOT), a move that could advance ICE's unsolicited bid for the Chicago Board of Trade.
• Rather than focus on potential take-out targets, Barron's Online's "Weekday Trader" said that the smart bet for investors is to focus on companies with rising profits, cash flows and dividends, such as Loews Corp-Carolina Group (NYSE: CG) and Imperial Tobacco Group plc (NYSE: ITY), which boast free cash and dividends.

OTHER PAPERS:

• Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE: BBY) is in talks with Vivek for a "foray" into India, the Economic Times reported.
  
• The Washington Post reported that Nigeria filed criminal charges against Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) over child deaths.

Stock futures dropped this morning indicating a possible lower start for U.S. stocks after Chinese stocks plunged 6.5% overnight.

Yesterday, stocks got a lift from M&A activity, but today, a sharp sell-off in Chinese stocks could take U.S. stocks down. Chinese stocks plunged after the government tripled the "stamp tax" on stock trades, trying to cool down the booming stock market. The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 6.5% after hitting a record high on Tuesday. The Shenzhen Composite Index closed with a 7.2% loss. Economists say this shouldn't affect China economy as growth is mostly export driven.

Analysts have been expecting a correction in Chinese stocks due to the sharp price rise. Even Alan Greenspan quipped as much last week. European stocks fell the most in two months as fears this would spark yet another global sell-off similar to the one in late February. But the declines in global markets declined did not reach the same magnitude: The Nikkei 225 closed down 0.5% in Tokyo, the FTSE 100 declined 1.1% in London, Germany's DAX index was down 1.%, and France's CAC-40 was down 0.9%.

Today, investors will also pay attention to the Fed minutes release (at 2 p.m.) after it last kept rates unchanged, stating inflation remained a priority. The minutes could reveal more into policy makers future intention and investors will scrutinize the wording to see any implied intentions.

Oil prices rose today, ahead of U.S. inventory data (10 a.m.). While the report is expected to show an increase in crude and gasoline supplies, geopolitical concerns increased, especially worries about disruptions in Nigeria resurfaced.

Corporate news:

CDW Corp. (NASDAQ: CDWC) said yesterday that it had agreed to be acquired by a private equity company, Chicago's Madison Dearborn Partners LLC, in a $7.3 billion deal. CDW shareholders will receive $87.75 in cash for each share of common stock, which is a 16.1% premium over the company's Friday closing price.

IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (NYSE: ICE) may have helped its hostile bid for CBOT Holdings (NYSE: BOT) by reaching an agreement aimed at resolving a dispute between CBOT and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (NYSE: CME), The Wall Street Journal reported.

Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA) agreed to sell its Famous Music publishing business to Sony/ATV Music Publishing for about $370 million, the Wall Street Journal.

It's interesting, but once again it seems bulls are knocking at the door. Yesterday's retreat, which I though would have continued at least for the morning until PPI numbers were released, is over for now. This morning, stock futures are indicating that markets will start on a positive note, at least for now, before the economic data is out.

Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a triple-digit loss after retailers reported worse-than-expected sales declines in April. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite followed suit with even higher percentage drops.

Today, a slew of economic data the market has been expecting will be released.

• At 8:30 a.m., April Producer Price Index is due to be reported. This measure of inflation at the wholesale level is expected to have increased 0.6% after a 1% increase in March. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices is estimated to have increased 0.2% after prices remained flat the month before. If PPI numbers will come higher-than-expected, markets could change direction as it would mean the Fed would continue to focus on inflationary pressure, perhaps at the expense of economic growth.
• At the same time, April retail sales will also be released. Investors got a snapshot of this indicator yesterday, when individual retailers reported their own sales. This will give an overall indication of consumer spending. Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.4% in April after a rise of 0.7% in March. While higher gas prices may have clamped on consumer spending at stores, it may have also inflated the number of consumer spending.
• Finally, at 10: a.m.m March business inventories are due.
• The RBC Cash Index found that confidence was 87.1 in May, only slightly higher than April's reading of 85.4, a six-month low. Consumer confidence was essentially stuck as consumers worry about gasoline prices, which made them anxious about the economy's prospects and their own financial positions.

As if all this news and concern about economic activity wasn't enough, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan decided to weigh in with his own view, saying he still believed there was a one-third chance that the U.S. economy would slip into recession this year, reiterating a statement made in March. When Greenspan first said that, his comments may have helped fuel a market sell-off in February.

Overseas, Asian stocks closed mostly lower. European stocks continue their drop, heading for the biggest weekly decline in two months. International markets seem to have affected by the slowing U.S. economic growth that could affect companies' profits.

Corporate:

American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) reported yesterday a first-quarter profit rise of 29%, but also disclosed for the first time it would take a pretax charge from its subprime loan exposure.

Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) shares are up 2.5% in pre-market trading after the company reported a drop of 35% in profit but gave indication of a stronger first half and a 10% sequential Q2 growth.

Wendy's International Inc. (NYSE: WEN) institutional shareholders are urging the hamburger chain to sell itself to the highest bidder, according to the Wall Street Journal.

CBOT Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BOT), is weighing an unsolicited bid [subscription] from energy market ICE (NYSE: ICE) despite an earlier agreement to merge with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (NYSE: CME), according to the Wall Street Journal.

NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) opened at $83.40. So far today the stock has hit a low of $82.75 and a high of $84.17. As of 10:50 this morning, NYX is trading at $82.93, up $0.62 (0.8%).

After hitting a one year high of $112.00 in November, the stock has slipped over the past few months. Jim Cramer believes that with this stock as low as it is, it's time to "back up the truck" and buy. Merger and acquisition buzz regarding the InterContinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) and CBOT (NYSE:BOT) could give NYX a lift as well. The technical indicators for NYX have been bearish but improving slightly, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bull-put credit spread below the $70 range. NYX hasn't been below $70 since September and has shown support around $74. This trade could be risky if the recent market hiccup turns into more of a down market than expected, but recent economic indicators seem to still show that the US economy is on the right track.

Brent Archer is an analyst on the move at Investors Observer (Free Subscription).

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.