There will be five superheroes competing for the attention of weekend moviegoers come Friday. There's Marvel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: MVL)'s duo Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk, Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE)'s Hancock, General Electric Corporation (NYSE: GE)'s Hellboy (distributed by GE's Universal), and Time Warner, Inc (NYSE: TWX)'s Dark Knight. So, who's going to be the ultimate crime fighter?
I'll tell you which one prevails: Time Warner and its new Batman film, The Dark Knight, has the weekend all locked up. This is set in stone. The Hulk and Iron Man are pretty much done, Hellboy isn't a powerful enough brand name,and Hancock didn't deliver the big numbers I thought it was capable of during its debut weekend (since then, however, the movie has held up well, I have to admit). But you can bet that Dark Knight hits $100 million this weekend. Can you feel the buzz surrounding this blockbuster in the wings? I can. Several reviews I've read were full of cinematic worship for this new entry in the franchise, with special praise reserved for the late Heath Ledger and his portrayal of the fiendish nightmare known as The Joker. There's a decent marketing campaign behind the project, including promotion of the availability of IMAX (NASDAQ: IMAX) screenings. If there ever seemed a movie fit for Imax, this is it. Yeah, Dark Knight can't lose, it can only win big.
Of course, what about Time Warner's stock? It could certainly use a superhero right now, as it has been hovering in recent times not above Gotham City (although that would probably be treacherous enough) but above 52-week-low City. I can't say that a big opening weekend definitely won't move the stock a little just due to the excitement factor, but I wouldn't buy the company ahead of the film (I also wouldn't gamble with IMAX either). Time Warner simply is too large to be affected significantly by one movie. If you consider Time Warner at all, it would be for fundamentals and valuation (I think the company is cheap here, although with this market, I'd rather get it cheaper). Enjoy the movie first, think about the stock later...
Disclosure: I own GE and Marvel; positions can change at any time.
Marvel (NYSE: MVL) is all about making movie franchises these days. For instance, the success of Iron Man has led to plans for a sequel. Shareholders are, understandably, happy about this since a series of blockbuster films will rake in a lot of money for the company and have a positive effect on the shares.
But, Marvel's second movie out of the gate, The Incredible Hulk, may not get the sequel treatment, according to the Hollywood Reporter. The article implied that the financial performance of the film may not have been blockbuster enough to make a sequel inevitable. That doesn't mean that it won't eventually get one, but since there are, as of now, no plans for another Hulk, the speculation is out there. As aforementioned, we already know that there will be another Iron Man.
As a Marvel shareholder, I am disappointed by the box-office results for this latest iteration of the Hulk (even the first weekend seemed weak). Back in 2003, when that year's movie version of the character was released, there was widespread disdain for the project (I myself couldn't stand the flick). Then came this summer's so-called reboot of the franchise. Unfortunately, as of now, 2008 Hulk hasn't done much better than 2003 Hulk.
Well, I was wrong about Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Hancock. Sure, I knew it was going to be the number-one movie over the Fourth of July holiday period, but come on, who didn't know that? As of this writing, Boxofficemojo estimates that the Will Smith picture took in $66 million over the three-day timeframe. However, Hancock had opened earlier in the week, and I thought that, by the time all was said and done, the film's cumulative gross by now would have been well over $100 million. Well, the cume now stands at around $107 million. I was thinking more along the lines of $125 million and above for a total tally by this point. Hancock came in a little weaker than expected, considering what seemed to be a very awesome cinematic experience as communicated by the marketing campaign.
Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Wall-E came in second over the weekend with around $33 million. The Pixar cartoon now has about $128 million to its credit. Wanted, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, was third with over $20 million. Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Get Smart and DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda were fourth and fifth, respectively. Here's an interesting note on Get Smart. Even after the holiday weekend, and after having been out in the marketplace for a few weekends, it still has yet to reach a total gross of $100 million. As of now, it has a little over $98 million in the bank. That number may change a bit when final figures are in, but in this day and age, when a summer movie with such star power (it stars Steve Carell) doesn't reach $100 million by the second weekend or sooner, it can't be considered super blockbuster material.
Well, it wasn't a terribly exciting box-office weekend. Frankly, I thought there would be more fireworks for the Fourth from these films. And as for all the stocks mentioned here, the bear market will probably keep them weak. The most direct play on the movie business is obviously DreamWorks Animation, and I would wait for that one to come in more before thinking about buying.
Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.
It's the Fourth of July weekend, and movie studios want to capture as much money for their films as possible, even if they've already been in the theaters for several weeks. No matter what, though, Sony (NYSE: SNE)'s Hancock, starring the always excellent Will Smith, is set to be the financial superhero of the weekend. Already, as of this writing, the film has taken in about $24 million through Wednesday, according to Boxofficemojo. The movie had some showings on Tuesday before its official debut in the middle of the week. It was number one on Wednesday, followed by Disney (NYSE: DIS)'s Wall-E. The robot flick so far has a total tally of around $86 million.
Poor Marvel (NYSE: MVL) and its The Incredible Hulk project. Will anybody be interested in seeing the big green guy now that Hancock is in the marketplace? Indeed, Hulk took in less than a million bucks on Wednesday, and it ranked number seven for that day. Looks like the Hulk fever is winding down at the multiplex, and it looks like Marvel's stock has had its run for the time being. The stock closed on Thursday at $31.20, well away from the 52-week high of $37.41. I still hold Marvel shares, and although there are no big catalysts on the immediate horizon, I have a long-term outlook on the company. Still, the trader in me wishes that I had lightened up on the position back at the $37 level to book some gains.
Hancock should do well north of $100 million once the Fourth of July holiday period has passed. The marketing, in my opinion, is very compelling, and from what I know about the story, it's a smart idea that provides a nice balance to the frivolous plots of Iron Man and Hulk (I'm using the term "frivolous" here with affection). Sony's scored a hit, maybe even a new franchise (I haven't seen the film, so I can't say if a sequel is feasible or not within the confines of the concept), but it won't do much to move the company's stock. Those looking to play the Hollywood game might want to wait for Marvel to pull back further from current levels.
Disclosure: I own Disney and Marvel; positions can change at any time.
Viacom Inc.'s (NYSE: VIA) Paramount studios, which has scored big at the box office with "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" and "Iron Man," and Time Warner Inc.'s (NYSE: TWX) Warner Bros, which is behind "Speed Racer," can't win them all. For example, take "The Love Guru" and "Get Smart," which open this weekend.
Reviews for Paramount's "The Love Guru, which stars Mike Myers, are not just scathing, they are acidic. A.O. Scott of the New York Times said, "To say that the movie is not funny is merely to affirm the obvious... No, `The Love Guru' is downright antifunny, an experience that makes you wonder if you will ever laugh again." At the Los Angeles Times, Jan Stewart argued that the movie was filled with "low blows and elephantine misfires." Mike LaSalle of the San Francisco Chronicle is slightly kinder saying, "There are whole sections when watching the movie is like being locked in the mind of a 10-year-old boy."
Critics weren't much kinder to Warner Bros.' "Get Smart," a remake of the popular TV comedy from the 1960s. Newsweek's David Ansen dismissed it as distressingly generic, comments echoed by Claudia Puig of USA Today. To be sure, the movie has its fans, including Roger Ebert, who said Steve Carrell makes an "infectious Maxwell Smart."
Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) movie The Incredible Hulk was incredibly disappointing (to me at least). No, I'm not talking about the quality of the movie. I didn't actually see it. But Boxofficemojo is reporting that it has grossed an estimated $54.5 million at domestic theaters over the weekend. While that was good enough for first place, it wasn't good enough for shareholders. The movie bombed, plain and simple.
Why am I being so hard on a number-one movie? It's not so difficult to understand. The awful Hulk movie that was released back in 2003 grossed $62.1 million in its opening weekend. There's no way to spin this. We've had five years of inflation between that terrible flick and this new iteration. Simply put, it should have grossed at least $65/$70 million, especially on the heels of Iron Man. I'm a shareholder of Marvel, and I don't like the fact that the success of Marvel's first movie of the summer didn't synergize a little better with the angry green guy.
Focusing on the positive, Marvel was able to beat DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) and its Kung Fu Panda project. The cartoon took in about $34 million and came in second. M. Night Shyamalan's The Happening, distributed by News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), did okay by coming in third with a gross of around $30 million. Some analysts thought that the horror flick would do a little bit less than that number. Personally, I thought it should have come in second place considering Shyamalan's name, but I guess people aren't as excited as they used to be about his exercises in cinematic twists (the fact that it was rated R also inhibited its blockbuster potential). Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Adam Sandler comedy You Don't Mess with the Zohan did in fact get messed with yet again, dropping two spots to fourth place, grossing about $16 million. I've heard bad reviews on this one. Viacom (NYSE: VIA) and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull were daring enough for fifth place. Everyone's favorite archaeologist has now breached the $275 million level. Great to see a favorite character of mine from the past doing so well.
The weekend domestic box-office results weren't too shocking. I pretty much knew that DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda would kick its way to the top (I wonder how many writers will be using that phrase when covering the movie this week). But when I saw that Boxofficemojo estimated a $60 million gross for the cartoon, I actually was disappointed. These days, a $60 million haul in the summertime doesn't seem impressive. I thought Panda might have been worth a little more. But, after checking some of the historical openings for other DreamWorks pictures, I realized that Panda did all right. It actually was one of the bigger debuts for the studio.
Even though the cartoon seemed a lock for first place, I thought Sony's (NYSE: SNE) You Don't Mess with the Zohan project would be a close second. At a $40 million estimated gross, it wasn't. I don't know if you can mess with Zohan or not, but you apparently can mess with Adam Sandler and best his star power. Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull is still going strong in third place. It has crossed the $250 million level, and it is headed for $300 million. Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Sex and the City, however, has lost a great deal of thunder, dropping from first to fourth place in its second weekend at the multiplexes. It is just shy of the $100 million mark. Is Sex nothing more than an opening-weekend phenomenon? It seems that way, but we'll have to see how steep the drops are in subsequent weekends.
The Strangers, from General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures, dropped from third to fifth place in its second weekend, a rather predictable event for a horror movie. At a $37 million total gross so far, The Strangers won't go down as a huge triumph, but you've got to love the profit potential for this low-budget flick that succeeded in counterprogramming its way to summertime glory. Universal obviously thought the film's concept possessed a chance to score a $100 million total haul since it placed the movie against the big guns of this busy period, but that's okay, the try was worth it in this case.
I honestly thought Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Speed Racer would take the top spot over the Mother's Day weekend at the domestic box-office marketplace. Thankfully, I was wrong, since I own shares in Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL).
Instead, Marvel's blockbuster Iron Man, which is distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), grabbed the honors. According to estimates at Boxofficemojo.com, Iron Man grossed more than $50 million while Speed Racer drove away with about $20 million, good for second place. Yes, these are estimates, but I'll tell you what, my friends any changes to them later on won't alter the tale of Marvel beating the bigger studio. News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) new film, What Happens in Vegas, took in a similar amount to Racer and is currently pegged in third place. While first place is a lock, it's possible that second and third positions will be changed. Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Made of Honor and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal comedy Baby Mama were fourth and fifth, respectively.
This was Iron Man's second weekend, and I couldn't be more pleased by its performance. Hopefully, the picture is on its way to grossing at least $250 million domestically; subsequent weekends will get tougher for Marvel as more summer flicks open and gobble up screens and mindshare. For now, though, the company is a superhero. I just hope that the new Hulk, which will be opening soon,is a lot better than the one put out a few years back. For coverage on Marvel's latest earnings report, check out Sheldon Liber's recent piece.
Disclosure: I own shares in General Electric and Marvel; positions can change at any time.
Since last year's summer movie preview featured mostly sequels and adaptations, this year's preview has been expanded to include more than just potential "blockbusters." The following is a chronological list of not only the most hyped film fare of the summer, but other noteworthy smaller entries, and a short commentary on each.
5/2 - Iron Man, Viacom (NYSE: VIA)'s Paramount Pictures The first of two big Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) adaptations of the summer, the Robert Downey Jr. led Iron Man has been getting a ton of hype and critical acclaim. This is the second year that a comic book adaptation has kicked off the summer, following last year's Spider-Man 3, which grossed over $150M over its opening weekend.
5/9 - Speed Racer, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX)'s Warner Bros. Another big-budget adaptation of a generations-old cartoon. Last year's Transformers was, to my surprise, a huge success, so maybe Speed Racer, in the capable directing hands of the Wachowskis, can be as well.
Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Paramount studios had a pretty kickin' year at the multiplex in 2007. According to Boxofficemojo.com, Paramount came out on top in terms of market share at 15.5%. It distributed some great hits -- Transformers, the DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) films Shrek the Third and Bee Movie, Will Ferrel's Blades of Glory comedy, and Eddie Murphy's Norbit. Viacom's movie business seems to be doing better. According to the latest 10Q for the reporting period ending September 30, 2007, operating income for the filmed-entertainment segment was $71.7 million versus a loss of nearly $8 million in the previous year's comparable quarter (the nine-month period still showed a loss). So, Paramount needs to keep the momentum going this year. How will it top the power of last summer's blockbuster Transformers? With a little swashbuckling help from Indiana Jones, of course!
To get things started, the media company sent out a press release alerting fans of fast-paced adventure that the first teaser trailer for Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skullwill be released on February 14 during ABC's Good Morning America program and in theaters across the globe. For those of us who've been waiting with a will of patience that was oftentimes as excruciating and as taxing as sitting through yet another news item about Britney Spears' latest mental breakdown, this is one heck of a Valentine, although I do hate teaser trailers (they are, after all, such a tease!).
Will the new Indy flick be a big hit this summer? I think it will be, although it isn't an absolute given, since a lot of the younger demos probably find the Raiders aesthetic a bit antiquated these days; plus, there will be stiff competition from Disney's (NYSE: DIS) new Pixar cartoon Wall-E, Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) The Dark Knight, and Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Incredible Hulk project. Still, we're talking about George Lucas and Steven Spielberg here, and they still retain a lot of cultural pull with all demographics. Viacom and Paramount will probably be happy with the results from Crystal Skull come the summer , although I think it's safe to assume that Lucas and Spielberg will be taking a large portion of the grosses. Nevertheless, Viacom is in on the action, and I'm sure it wouldn't want it any other way.
This post was part of AOL Money & Finance's Best & Worst of 2007 feature. Voting has now closed and readers have chosen Oprah Winfreyas the most overpaid celebrity of the year. Be sure to let us know in the comments if you are pleased with this result.
Oprah Winfrey returns to our Most Overpaid Celebrity category after having lost the title to Paris Hilton last year. For 2007 she is joined by overpaid celebrities Madonna, George Lopez, and Russell Crowe.
Winfrey, Madonna, and Lopez all made the Forbes Celebrity 100, a ranking of Hollywood players by pay, influence, and popularity. Winfrey, of course, comes in at number one, both in terms of pay and power. Madonna's earnings placed her at number nine on the list, while Lopez came in at number fifty-one.
Forbes estimates Winfrey's earnings at $260 million last year, and her net worth in the area of $1.5 billion, making her the nation's wealthiest African American. She'll be adding two new reality shows to her media empire, which already includes a blockbuster daytime talk show, satellite radio show, magazine, and Broadway musical, as well as stakes in hit shows by Dr. Phil McGraw and Rachael Ray. The school for girls she founded in South Africa has drawn much media attention this year, and she's recently endorsed Barack Obama's presidential campaign. Winfrey has been called the world's most powerful woman, the most influential woman in the world, one of the most influential persons of the 20th century, the world's first black woman billionaire, and the greatest pop culture icon of all time. Can any mortal person live up to all that hype?
Maybe at 39, I am too old and cynical to fall under the spell of Harry Potter. Maybe my nine-month-old son will one day become a fan of the teenage wizard. Until then, I shall avoid all Potter books and movies even though I am one of the few people on the planet to do so.
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, the latest chapter in the J.K. Rowling franchise, grossed $44.8 million yesterday, the biggest Wednesday ever, according to Reuters. That's good news, of course, for Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), the film's producer and distributor.
The movie even got a backhanded compliment from A.O. Scott of the New York Times who wrote; "Although Order of the Phoenix is not a great movie, it is a pretty good one, in part because it does not strain to overwhelm the audience with noise and sensation."
But investors shouldn't buy shares of the New York-based media company just because of one hit movie. Remember that blockbuster movies are extremely expensive to produce, though the power of Potter continues to amaze me.
Since 2001, the Potter saga movies have generated $3.5 billion in ticket sales. What they haven't done though, is reverse the decline in reading, the Times also notes.
There are some things beyond the powers of the greatest wizards.
The wigs have been put away, the red carpet's been walked, and the cast and crew behind Hairspray -- the latest movie musical to hit the big screen -- is anxiously awaiting the movie's July 20 U.S. premiere.
Distributed by New Line Cinema -- a division of Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) -- Hairspray returns to the early 1960s to follow the tale of "pleasantly plump" Tracy Turnblad as she aims for a role on a television dance program while attempting to battle social ills. The movie, based on the 2002 Broadway musical, which was based on the 1988 (non-musical) John Waters movie, has a cavalcade of stars, including Michelle Pfeiffer, Christopher Walken, Queen Latifah, Allison Janney, and Amanda Bynes. Newcomer Nikki Blonsky won the central role of Tracy.
One member of the Hairspray contingent that could really benefit from the film's success is John Travolta, who takes on the traditionally cross-dressed role of Tracy's mother, Edna. Since Battlefield Earth, the Scientology-inspired 2000 film widely panned as the worst move ever made, the star of Grease and Pulp Fiction has suffered some missteps, including A Love Song for Bobby Long, Domestic Disturbance, and Be Cool. Not until this Spring's Wild Hogs did Travolta appear to have any hope of ditching the box-office poison title.
Apparently not everyone is as unsettled as I am by the story of a rodent cooking meals at a restaurant, his grubby little hands all over the oregano. The cartoon Ratatouille claimed the top spot in the North American box office this week, selling $47.2 million in tickets.
While Entertainment Weekly noted that the unlikely pairing of the feel-good family film with the fourth installment of the Die Hard series was "just the right ingredients to bring the box office back to life," CNNMoney.com reports that Ratatouille's opening was "the lowest ... for a Pixar movie in nine years." The film's receipts failed to live up to expectations, which were in the $50 million to $65 million range ahead of the opening weekend.
Pixar -- A ground-breaking animation company founded by Steve Jobs, was acquired by The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) last year for $7.4 billion. It has released eight full-length animated feature films, beginning with Toy Story in 1995. The studio's previous release, Cars, banked $60.1 million in its opening weekend a year ago, earning $244 million domestically by the end of its run.
Despite lukewarm reviews and a smattering of sub-plots spilling over in a bloated script (in this fan's opinion), Spider-Man 3 ensnared millions of fans in its web over the weekend, setting box-office records and raking in $375 million in ticket sales around the globe. The third installment following the escapades of our friendly neighborhood arachnid, trumped the previous record holder, Star Wars: Episode III -- Revenge of the Sith, which banked $254 million in its opening weekend in 2005.
In North America, the Tobey Maguire/Kirsten Dunst vehicle took in $148 million since Friday, topping the domestic box-office record set by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest last July. Additionally, Spider-Man 3 -- distributed by Columbia Pictures, a unit of Sony Corp. ADR (NYSE: SNE) -- set a single-day record on Friday, selling $59.3 million in tickets, inching above the earlier record, also set by Dead Man's Chest. The latest installment was no frugal feat, costing nearly $260 million to produce.