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Warren Buffett finds opportunities in... Germany?

Across Germany, there are many large family-owned businesses some of which go back several hundred years.

So, with more than $35 billion in his war chest, Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK-A) Warren Buffett wants to buy some of them.

In fact, this week he's on a tour of Germany – as well as other European countries -- to let people know that he's ready for deal making.

Of course, in the United States, Buffett has been successful in buying up family-owned businesses. For example, he has recently helped with the purchase of Wrigley (NYSE: WWY).

But will Germany warm up to him?

Perhaps so. After all, Buffett allows managers to remain independent. Plus, Germany has many traditional businesses, such as in consumer products and manufacturing.

Something else: Timing is important. After World War II, Germany had to rebuild its industrial infrastructure. And, no doubt, the owners of these businesses must now deal with the complex issues of succession.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

Why Garmin Ltd (GRMN) won't be rebounding soon

While researching GPS maker Garmin Ltd (NASDAQ: GRMN) -- whose stock has lost two-thirds of its value in the last six months -- I can't help but pity those long-term shareholders who reject trend following and technical analysis in favor of investing for the long term. To them, it seemed like only yesterday that GPS was one of the hottest technologies around and this industry leader could do no wrong.

Well, that's usually the time to sell, just as I posted on Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) in January this year and on Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) in November last year, both before they each dropped 40% in just a few months. Because the truth is these popular technology stocks are all expectations. We're not talking Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A)-type value investing here.

Sure, GPS is still hot, somewhat, but due to intense competition, margins have been evaporating, forcing analysts to lower their earnings estimates. In their latest quarter, Garmin further strengthened the bear case with spiking inventories and accounts receivable. None of that looks to change anytime soon, and even though it's got a P/E of 10, book value is all the way down near $11 per share!

Continue reading Why Garmin Ltd (GRMN) won't be rebounding soon

Warren Buffett buys cheese, Krafty cheese

The Wall Street Journal has indicated that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) has taken a 5% stake in Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT). The stake is under 5% and looks like it was made before activist investor Norman Peltz piled into the food giant, which is under pressure from Carl Icahn as well.

What is odd is that the newspaper noted that it was unclear if Buffett sided with activist investors Peltz and Icahn. This is somewhat amusing when you consider that Buffett invests his monies on a somewhat passive basis and does more voting type initiatives. He rarely steps in and demands that companies leverage their balance sheets or pursue rapid share buybacks for a short term boost. Those initiatives are usually risks to companies because the leverage can hurt on a long term basis. Buffett always looks at these matters in the long term, even if he only holds some of these passive investments for a few quarters.

If you can figure out an average price he paid, probably in the mid-$30s, you can bet that at that price the Oracle of Omaha was thinking there was long term value in Kraft. Based on a $1.80 estimate from First Call for 2007, Kraft trades at 18.8 times 2007 estimates after the 2% drop seen this morning.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Buffett pans newspapers, McClatchy chain at 52-week low

Buried in Warren Buffett's annual shareholder letter was a reference to the dying newspaper industry. Berkshire (NYSE:BRK-A) owns the large daily in Buffalo and Buffett has been on the board of newspaper firms including The Washington Post (NYSE:WPO) and Capital Cities/ABC, now a part of Disney (NYSE:DIS).

If anyone needs proof of how poorly the public newspaper chains are doing, they only need to look at McClatchy (NYSE:MNI), one of the largest. The firm made a point of doubling down on its bet on the industry by buying Knight-Ridder last year. The result has been a train wreck.

McClatchy seems to make a new low every day. The stock now trades at $36.68. Over the last two years, the shares are down almost 50% against a move up of almost 20% for the S&P. McClatchy bought more newspapers in the teeth of a secular decline in circulation and advertising that is not likely to abate. The company's ad revenue dropped over 5% in January. The company's 10-K shows that most of its large newspapers like the Miami Herald lost circulation last year.

After showing net profits for 2002 through 2005, McClatchy had a net loss of $155 million in 2006, much of it from discontinued operations. The company has long-term debt of almost $3.3 billion.

McClatchy may survive the pounding that newspapers are taking, but it is almost impossible to see how it will prosper.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 247WallSt., LLC.

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DJIA-344.6511,188.23
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S&P 500-38.151,236.83

Last updated: September 05, 2008: 12:36 AM

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