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Bernanke: Failure to Raise Debt Ceiling Could Be 'Catastrophic'

Ben BernankeThe past week's data-point-of-consequence for investors was delivered by none other than the head of the world's most powerful central bank. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke underscored the nation's need to raise the debt ceiling.

Speaking at a National Press Club luncheon in Washington Thursday, Bernanke said delays in raising the debt ceiling limit, currently $14.3 trillion, could have "catastrophic" consequences, Reuters reported.

Continue reading Bernanke: Failure to Raise Debt Ceiling Could Be 'Catastrophic'

The 2001 Bush Income Tax Cut: A Major Policy Mistake

George BushThe 2001 Bush income tax cut is one of those issues whose fate has been sealed by objective economic conditions.

Simply, if the U.S. economy had registered robust growth during the final two years of the Bush administration, and no other negative economic events occurred, the tax cut, which will increase the deficit by $336 billion this fiscal year, $295 billion in fiscal 2011, and by more than $320 billion per year through fiscal 2019, perhaps would have had a chance of being extended.

Continue reading The 2001 Bush Income Tax Cut: A Major Policy Mistake

Former Reagan Budget Director Stockman Opposes Extending Bush Tax Cuts

A key figure in the Reagan administration's supply side economics policy implementation opposes extending the 2001 Bush income tax cut.

David Stockman, who served as budget director under President Reagan, in a New York Times op-ed piece, said a Republican effort "to extend the unaffordable Bush tax cuts would amount to a bankruptcy filing."

Stockman also called the current Republican stance of wanting to extend the tax breaks as not fiscal responsibility, but "vulgar Keynesianism robed in the ideological vestments of the prosperous classes."

Continue reading Former Reagan Budget Director Stockman Opposes Extending Bush Tax Cuts

Flight-to-Safety Pushes U.S. Interest Rates Lower

Paraphrasing the great Mark Twain, if you don't like the stance of institutional investors, just wait a while.

Case in point: Investor sentiment toward the United States' large budget deficit and national debt.

A scant month ago, the talk was of bond vigilantes turning their wrath on the U.S., from Greece, Spain, Portugal and the rest of Europe's debt-plagued nations -- a predicament that would force interest rates up in the world's largest economy.

Continue reading Flight-to-Safety Pushes U.S. Interest Rates Lower

Greenspan: Let Bush's Tax Cuts Expire

One of the nation's foremost economic minds is calling on policy makers to let the Bush administration's 2001 tax cuts expire to help balance the federal budget.

"They should follow the law and let them lapse," Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Bloomberg News Thursday, citing the need for tax revenue to cut the U.S. nearly $1.6 billion budget deficit.

President Bill Clinton was last U.S. president to run a budget surplus, recording budget surpluses in the final four years of his administration.

President George W. Bush's 2001 $1.1 trillion tax cut instantaneously turned a budget surplus into a roughly $200 billion budget deficit.

Continue reading Greenspan: Let Bush's Tax Cuts Expire

Has the Fed Prevented a Bond Vigilante Attack on the U.S.?

The bond vigilantes -- primarily institutional investors who punish countries with a large deficit and/or problematic fiscal policies -- have made their presence felt in Europe. Just ask Greece. But will they make their presence felt on U.S. shores?

In the short-term, the answer appears to be no. "Central banks [including the U.S. Federal Reserve], by keeping rates near zero have basically covered the bond vigilantes in duct tape," economist Ed Yardeni told Bloomberg News. "We are not getting any votes of protest from the bond vigilantes in the U.S. because short-term rates are so low." Yardeni coined the 'bond vigilante' term in the 1980s.

Continue reading Has the Fed Prevented a Bond Vigilante Attack on the U.S.?

NYU's Roubini: U.S. Can't Run Massive Deficits Forever

RoubiniNew York University Economics Professor Nouriel Roubini, who accurately predicted the subprime mortgage default-induced financial crisis more than a year before it hit, is now cautioning the U.S. to not assume that the next stage of the financial crisis cannot return to U.S. shores.

"Bond market vigilantes have already woken up in Greece, in Spain, in Portugal, in Ireland, in Iceland, and soon enough they could wake up in the U.K., in Japan, in the United States, if we keep on running very large fiscal deficits," Roubini told Blooomberg News. "The chances are, they are going to wake up in the United States in the next three years and say, 'this is unsustainable.' "

Continue reading NYU's Roubini: U.S. Can't Run Massive Deficits Forever

Bernanke: Budget Deficits May Push Interest Rates Higher

BernankeIt's an age-old dilemma. Congress loves to spend taxpayer money. The problem is that Congress is spending money that they don't have, racking up huge budget deficits.

Chairman Bernanke warned that high budget deficits could cause interest rates to rise and derail the economic recovery. The White House estimates that the U.S. budget deficit could reach $5.1 trillion over the next five years. This year, the deficit could set a record of $1.6 trillion.

Continue reading Bernanke: Budget Deficits May Push Interest Rates Higher

Euro Conquers Fiscal Challenge While Dollar Struggles

Should U.S. investors become ebullient about dollar strengthening versus the euro in light of the European Union's effort to bail-out deficit-plagued Greece?

Hardly. For one thing, the euro, which has weakened about 7% versus the dollar since January to about $1.3372, is not guaranteed to weaken more against the buck. And the reason is obvious enough: unlike the United States, euro-zone nations can not turn to their nation's central bank to 'crank up the printing presses' and inflate their way out of debt and debt payments. The monetary policy of Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Germany, and France etc. is set by a supra-national central bank, the conservative European Central Bank, so don't look for Weimar-style printing of money any time soon.

Continue reading Euro Conquers Fiscal Challenge While Dollar Struggles

Ray of Light: U.S. Treasury Borrowing May Be Peaking

At first glance, Wednesday's good news data point looks anything but: the U.S. Treasury may sell $128 billion in notes next week -- a record, Bloomberg News reported. The large debt amount stems in part from record spending for both the fiscal stimulus and the bank bailout.

And the good news in the above? Institutional investors and analysts sense that a modest reduction in the Treasury Department's borrowing needs is approaching, due to the strengthening U.S. economy, Bloomberg News reported. A Bloomberg survey of bond/debt dealers forecasts that the Treasury will sell $2.4 trillion in debt in 2010, compared to $2.11 trillion in 2009.

Continue reading Ray of Light: U.S. Treasury Borrowing May Be Peaking

Bernanke: U.S. Fiscal Outlook Is 'Somewhat Dark'

The head of the world's most powerful central bank has weighed-in regarding the U.S. budget deficit.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, told Congress the government's budget outlook is " somewhat dark," Bloomberg News reported. The U.S. budget deficit totaled $1.4 trillion last year and is expected to approach $1.5 trillion this year.

Continue reading Bernanke: U.S. Fiscal Outlook Is 'Somewhat Dark'

Greece Seen Likely to Cut Deficit More to Placate EU

Tuesday's key developments in As The Eurozone Turns:

Greece is expected to announce an additional 3.5-billion-euro ($4.85 billion) deficit cut, to address concerns voiced by European Union members that the Mediterranean nation has to do more to correct its profligate fiscal ways, The New York Times (NYT) reported Tuesday .

Word of additional heavy-lifting by Greece comes after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Greece "in the coming days" must reveal new measures to address EU member concerns that Greece is not doing enough to resolve the fiscal crisis, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday. Merkel is set to meet with Greece Prime Minister George Papandreou on Friday, March 5.

Continue reading Greece Seen Likely to Cut Deficit More to Placate EU

Harvard's Rogoff Sees an IMF Greece Bailout, Higher Interest Rates

Harvard University Professor Kenneth Rogoff, who in 2008 accurately predicted the failure of large American banks, says he expects nations (called sovereigns) to default, and also is predicting a high-interest-rate-induced fiscal austerity era for the United States.

Rogoff said he expects Greece to be bailed out by the International Monetary Fund, not the European Union, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.

Continue reading Harvard's Rogoff Sees an IMF Greece Bailout, Higher Interest Rates

Can the New Simpson/Bowles Budget Deficit Reduction Commission Succeed?

Can the U.S. budget deficit panel succeed where others have not?

Indeed it can, and the key is its composition. The 18-member, non-binding panel will contain, in addition to two co-chairs, four members appointed by President Obama, six by Democratic leaders and six by Republican leaders, The Associated Press reported Thursday. The panel's recommendations will require approval by 14 of the 18 members, which guarantees that its recommendations will have bipartisan support.

Continue reading Can the New Simpson/Bowles Budget Deficit Reduction Commission Succeed?

Under the Radar: China Decreases Holdings of U.S. Treasuries

Under the radar: Some trends are obvious enough and visible to all investors. Others are more-subtle, but are just as potent, and these often slip 'under the radar.'

Case in point: China's ownership of U.S. government debt decreased in December by the most in a month since 2000, Bloomberg News reported.

China's holdings plunged 4.3% to $755.4 billion in December; China's holdings peaked in May 2009 at $801.5 billion.

Continue reading Under the Radar: China Decreases Holdings of U.S. Treasuries

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Last updated: February 11, 2012: 09:47 PM

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