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Spokesperson fiasco #2: Kate Moss and the fashion world

This post is part of a series on celebrity spokespeople who ended up doing serious harm to the brands they were hired to promote, or vice versa. See how we rank the 20 top spokesperson fiascos.

The cliché of the pencil-thin model is made corporeal in the body of supermodel Kate Moss, the waif that launched a thousand brands. Among those brands tying their fortune to her size 0 sails were H&M (STO:HMB), Burberry (LON:BRBY) and Chanel.

Unfortunately, they made the same mistake many baseball owners did -- failing to ask just how their star could maintain such a remarkable body. The answer for Moss, apparently, was toot. When she was photographed in 2005 by London's Daily Mail using cocaine at a Babyshambles recording session, the fashion industry recoiled in faux revulsion.

Leading the retreat were the brands to whom she had lent her good name, the same H&M, Burberry and Chanel. Each invoked the morals clause to terminate her contract, making that a multi-million dollar line of coke.

So that was the end of Moss, right? Think again. In the fashion world, morals transgressions are so, like, yesterday. Within a year, Moss had signed new contracts with Calvin Klein and other top fashions brands. Brendan Behan, who said there is no such thing as bad publicity (except your own obituary) knew what he was talking about, at least in the fashion world.

Read the entire series

Do spokespersons affect your purchasing decisions



Fossil alive and well

Fossil, Inc. (Nasdaq: FOSL) is a fashion apparel company investors rarely hear about as it markets watches, jewelry and clothing accessories under proprietary and licensed brands. None the less, Fossil is posting some numbers of interest to investors. According to the recent 3Q 2007 earnings report, net sales are up 20% to $358.6 million, gross profit is up 26% to $187 million, operating income is up 47% to $48.5 million, net income is up 41% to $40.5 million, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) is up 39% to $0.43. These are whopping increases on fair-sized numbers.

Also in Fossil's favor is the fact that 50% of its sales come from outside the U.S., so the company is taking advantage of currency exchanges. The company is looking at a good holiday selling season, particularly in Europe, where net sales increased 28%. International wholesale orders are up 32%.

Fossil management is not depending just on these good numbers. The company is still focused on cutting expenses and better inventory control. Cost of inventory decreased slightly in 3Q 2007, despite 34 additional new stores. Interest expenses decreased $825,000, and the company is shifting its product lines to higher profit margin items. Fossil just inked a licensing deal with Burberry, good through 2012. At $41.36, up 4% on the earnings news, this under the radar stock may be worth a look.

Luxury goods category stays strong in face of depressed consumers

With subprime meltdown and credit crunch in full-swing, there is a lot concern about how consumer spending will be effected. Just yesterday, Fortune's Geoff Colvin declared the American consumer tapped out, saying that the "evidence is powerful that, as incredible as it may seem, U.S. consumers are going to start living within their means again. Brace yourself."

So what does that mean? Well for starters, companies that depend on consumers living above their means probably won't fare too well: This could include many middle-market apparel stores, furniture stores, and other non-essential moderate-luxuries. An old couch looks like a lot more comfy when you can't pay your bills.

But investors seeking solace from the weakened consumer (and remember, you should only seek solace if you think this is likely to be a long-term shift. If you think it's temporary, you may want to buy on the bad news) may want to look toward luxury goods makers.

According
to BreakingViews, "If there's a financial crisis going on, nobody told the world's luxury brands. LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, the French luxury group, and Burberry, the United Kingdom apparel designer, say their wares are flying off the shelves. At LVMH, third-quarter revenue grew 15% -- the fastest pace in years -- driven by handbags, watches and jewelry. Appetite for Burberry's tartan creations pushed its first-half retail sales up by 25%, as the group continued its march across the American heartland."

BreakingViews
goes on to speculate that continued weakening in the US economy could hurt these brands, but I tend to disagree. Luxury goods consumers are well-positioned enough that they just aren't that vulnerable to the factors hurting lower- and middle-income consumers: rising gas prices, housing woes, etc.

At the opposite extreme, I continue to think that discount stores,
especially dollar stores, could do well if the middle-class decides to tighten its belt. But the little luxuries that middle class shoppers like to indulge could find themselves squeezed.

Is Burberry (BBRYF) a buyout target?

Burberry BBRYFAccording to the New York Post, luxury goods maker Burberry Ltd. (OTC: BBRYF) could be a buyout target for a competitor like Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH). The speculation started with a research report from Merrill Lynch. According to the Post, "Merger activity is likely to pick up this year in the $218 billion industry as family-owned companies face generational transitions, while 'predators' such as LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA are flush with cash."

With the private equity boom subsiding, strategic mergers and acquisitions are likely to take center-stage -- ya know, those deals that take place based on some goal other than financial engineering.

If you're interested in finding other fashion stocks that might be in play (or might just make good investments for other reasons), ApparelSearch.com has a pretty comprehensive list of the publicly traded fashion stocks. Buyout targets generally will trade at reasonable P/E and P/Cash Flow ratios, and will have clean balance sheets.

Given the status of the credit markets, companies seeking to acquire will need to have strong cash flow and balance sheets as well.

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 09:11 PM

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