It is said that Archimedes discovered the principle of displacement while sitting in a tub of water. It's not unusual for insights to occur at unforeseen times. So too it was with economist Edwin Coppock. On being told that it took 11 to 14 months to mourn a death, he used this idea to develop an indicator that would predict a sustained rally after an economic downturn.

The Coppock indicator is the sum of a 14-month rate of change in an index and 11-month rate of change, smoothed out by a 10-period weighted moving average. When the curve less than zero and rises, that is a "buy" signal. The deeper it goes below zero, the more powerful the rally. The Coppock indicator has predicted 16 U.S. rallies from 17 "buy" signals, and recently the Coppock indicator gave another "buy" signal.

"Gloom is thick enough to cut with a knife," says market historian and seasonal timing expert Sy Harding, whose timing system has just triggered a new intermediate-term buy signal on stocks. Here, in his Street Smart Report, the contrarian explains why he believes we are now near a market low.

He also looks at four new ETF index positions he has established in his portfolio. "The slowdown continues. Foreclosures soar. Debt problems are spreading to corporate and credit card loans. The housing collapse continues. The problems are affecting employment.

"And of course the credit crunch continues. Gasoline hit a record high $3.26 a gallon last week. Consumer confidence, and corporate CEO confidence is at multi-year lows regarding the economy.

"The gloom and doom has spread from financial publications to local newspapers and magazines, now featuring stories of layoffs and local plant closings, local small businesses suffering, comparisons to previous bad times, even occasionally to the Great Depression.

"Is the gloom thick enough? Are other conditions in place indicating we are near a market low? Here's why we think so: