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Fox Business gets crushed

Almost no one watches the News Corp (NYSE: NWS) Fox Business Network.

What is the channel's viewership? According to The New York Times "about 6,300, on average, on any given weekday, according to early estimates compiled by Nielsen Media Research." The comparable number for rival CNBC was 283,000 viewers based on data between October 15 and December 14.

The news has to be a humiliation for Fox. It started the network by saying that it would be a credible challenge to CNBC, and it spent millions of dollars on promoting the new network.

It may get harder for the network to get people to come on its shows. Who wants to go to a studio to be seen by a few kids who are watching TV because they are home sick from school?

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Comcast: Is the collapse over?

For several years, Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) was considered one of the most successful companies in America. It used its cable franchise to build a huge broadband, VOD, and VoIP cash machine. The so-called "triple play" of voice, TV, and broadband could not be matched by telecom competitors, so Comcast took hundreds of thousands of phone customers away from them each quarter.

From mid-2003 to early 2007, Comcast shares rose close to 100%. During the last three months, they are down 27%.

It finally occurred to Wall Street that competition from satellite TV and the new fiber-to-the-home products from telecom companies like Verizon (NYSE:VZ) were eating into Comcast's customer base. The company recently announced that its growth and cash flow would be less than expected. Customer growth was slowing and the firm had to put more money into infrastructure so that it could improve offerings for products like HDTV.

An influential cable analyst, Benjamin Swinburne of Morgan Stanley, says the slide in Comcast shares is over. According to Barron's the analyst "notes that the stock's multiples have been compressed to historic lows." He also thinks EPS and free cash flow could grow as much as 20% a year, if Comcast can keep adding voice and HDTV customers.

The logic for Comcast making a comeback may be a little thin. Verizon's FiOS is taking customers from Comcast and it is only in a small fraction of the 18 million homes that will eventually have access to the service.That means that the head-to-head competition for the cable company will actually increase. And satellite TV companies continue to ramp up their programming and HDTV offering.

The worst is probably not over for Comcast.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

As Comcast cuts guidance, cable faces new challenge

Cable shares were beginning to get back on track. FCC plans to further regulate the industry never made it off the ground. It looked like the the industry had clear running.

But, Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) issued a profit warning saying that its cash flow in 2007 might be only 80% of what it was last year. The number of subscribers it expected to sign up would fall from previous forecasts and capital spending on new infrastructure would rise. Barron's reports "the company now sees revenue generating units up about 6 million, to 57 million, rather than previous guidance of 6.5 million unit growth. Comcast now sees cable revenue growth of about 11%, down from previous guidance of at least 12%."

It appears that Wall Street was right when it began to fear the worst about fiber-to-the-home competition from telephone companies. The new technology allows them to offer fast broadband, HDTV, and voice service in one package. For several years only cable could do that. Now the telecoms, lead by Verizon (NYSE: VZ), are aggressively offering their own packages.

For investors, the problem is that new competition is likely to keep cable stocks down for a long time. That means that the lows that they hit recently may be as good as it gets.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Media World: Fox Business Network's boneheaded mistakes

Fox Business Network logoWow, the Fox Business Network hasn't even been on the air for a month, and its critics are already writing its obituary because the channel has made some boneheaded moves.

First, as Fox-hater Keith Olbermann noted, the News Corp (NYSE: NWS) channel did some "creative" editing of negative newspaper reviews and turned them into positive ones? Yesterday, Olbermann, the host of MSNBC's Countdown with Keith Olbermann, "awarded" network honcho Roger Ailes the title of "Worst Person in the World" because presumably mortal enemy Bill O'Reilly's evilness just wasn't up to snuff. This bit is part of Olbermann's shtick on his program which regularly outrages conservatives.

Of course, Ailes is far from the worst person in the world. At best, he and his boss Rupert Murdoch are in the top 10% of evil-doers, well behind the likes of Osama bin Laden, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and people who dress up their pets in Halloween costumes. But unlike many arch-villains, Ailes is a very creative and resourceful guy.

For instance, he's lined up Minyanville.com characters "Hoofy the Bull" and "Boo the Bear" to host a segment on the network's critically derided Happy Hour program. Is this idea going to win a Peabody? Of course not, but it's not the end of the world, either. Still, this feature wasn't a smart PR move, because it plays into the hands of Fox's many critics, including Joe Nocera of The New York Times, who have blasted the network for being too upbeat.

Continue reading Media World: Fox Business Network's boneheaded mistakes

Fox Business Network faces off against CNBC

The Associated Press reports that News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Fox News Network plans to launch Fox Business Network (FBN) to compete with General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal's CNBC on October 15. Will the two really compete? CNBC targets upscale investors while FBN says it's targeting Main Street.

One interesting detail in this article is that Dow Jones & Company's (NYSE: DJ) arrangement with CNBC -- giving it exclusive access to the Wall Street Journal until 2012 -- only covers business-related news. This allows FBN to use Journal coverage of other areas such as Washington and lifestyle topics.

I think CNBC will feel threatened by FBN and continue to respond by offering conservative-leaning and big-business-boosterish coverage. Meanwhile FBN will use its well-practiced brand of Amen Chorus stories that both demonize the enemy -- in this case CNBC -- while appearing to support the voiceless, powerless little guy. If I ran CNBC, I would focus primarily on giving my core audience more of what it wants and not try to imitate FBN through patriotic-sounding stories.

Advertisers will pay a premium to access CNBC's upscale viewers and GE cannot afford to lose those dollars.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates,. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns GE stock, has consulted to News Corp.'s CEO, has appeared as a guest on CNBC and Forbes on Fox, and has no financial interest in Dow Jones.

Nickelodeon to launch two new networks

Viacom (NYSE: VIA)'s Nickelodeon network, arguably the top brand in kids' television, will be spinning off two new networks: Noggin, a commercial-free daytime station for preschoolers and N, which targets teens.

This makes sense from a branding perspective -- Having N and Noggin on the same station gave the channel a lack of focus, which often prevents the network from building a core audience. But on a more immediate level, this may not help anything: Does it really make sense to have a 24-hour network for kids who are in school most of the day?

At least in terms of crossover success, Nickelodeon is getting killed by the Disney (NYSE: DIS) Channel, which has had breakthrough hits like High School Musical (Kevin Kelly's favorite movie) and Hannah Montana.

Nickelodeon is too small a part of the Viacom empire for this to have any material effect on the stock price.

Disney, Comcast, Time Warner may bid for Yankees TV network

Walt Disney Corp. (NYSE: DIS), Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) and Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) may be tempted to pick up the Yankee Entertainment & Sports Network, the cable TV channel that broadcasts the baseball team's games which Bloomberg News said could be worth as much as $2 billion.

The channel, whose owners include Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) and former New Jersey Nets owner Raymond Chambers, is "running a limited check" and would only consider selling if it got a price "reflecting its real value," spokesman Peter Rose told Bloomberg. Funny guy to be quoted in a baseball story. I guess anything is for sale at the right price. What an original concept.

It will be an interesting test of wills between Disney's ESPN and Comcast. ESPN remains a juggernaut for the house that Mickey built. Comcast is trying to challenge ESPN with its Comcast SportsNet channels including the one I watch in Philadelphia that broadcasts Phillies games.

Remember, we're talking about the Yankees here, one of the most recognized though not necessarily loved franchises in baseball. New Yorkers, though, continue to love their Bronx Bombers even though they have struggled this year.

But the time the YES network is sold, however, slugger Alex Rodriguez will have left the Big Apple for parts unknown. With $2 billion in the bank, I'm sure the team could afford to replace him.

Media World: Rupert Murdoch will win the Bartiromo-Burnett battle

The reported tiff between CNBC's Money Honey Maria Bartiromo and upstart Erin Burnett, whom the New York Post dubbed the "Street Sweetie,'' is mana from heaven for News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) Chief Executive Rupert Murdoch.

His Post gets a juicy chick fight to write about -- although the General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) cable channel denies there is a fight -- and it makes a rival to his yet-to-be launched Fox Business Channel look foolish as a bonus. Plus, it gives Fox a good excuse to try and lure either one of them away from CNBC. Interesting how corporate synergies work in today's media world.

Mind you, I have no idea whether Bartiromo and Burnett hate each other or not. Usually, Page Six is pretty truthy in the Stephen Colbert sense of the word. You have to think that someone close to Bartiromo or Burnett -- perhaps the person who looks back at them in the mirror -- is spilling their guts to the Post. Yes, the media world is just like high school.

Bartiromo has long been a subject of the gossip pages. I urged CNBC to fire Bartiromo earlier this year after her relationship with ousted Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) executive Todd Thompson brought derision on the network. Since then, she's indicated that she's more interested in being a TV star than a journalist. Burnett, whose path I crossed when I was at Bloomberg News, is gaining the good kind of publicity. In fact, Broadcasting and Cable called her CNBC's "secret weapon."

But there's an extra dimension to this tabloid battle that's worth considering.

There are many media conspiracy theorists who argue that Rupert Murdoch will tabloid up the Wall Street Journal once he gets a hold of Dow Jones & Co. (NYSE: DJ). I think that these fears are overblown. Murdoch won't use the Journal to settle scores with his enemies and heap praise on his friends. Why should he when the Post does that so well?

Viacom won't feel much like partying at the upfronts

Viacom Inc. (NYSE:VIA) will be in no mood to celebrate at this year's upfronts but will have to put on a smile and fake it.

The upfronts are gatherings in which networks talk up their upcoming season to advertisers. The parties are great. There's lots of free food, free food and free stuff. Beneath the frivolity, there's serious business negotiations going on about advertising prices. This is where things get tricky for Viacom.

As yesterday's fourth-quarter results illustrate, Viacom isn't in a strong bargaining position. Wall Street was pretty underwhelmed too. The company had profit of $480.8 million, or 69 cents per share. Excluding one-time charges, profit was 65 cents. Revenue rose 32 cents for $3.59 billion. The results beat analysts' forecasts but concerns about growth tempered people's enthusiasm and the stock fell.

Blogging Stocks readers were divided. Forty-one percent expected Viacom to post disappointing results. It turns out that everyone was right.

The reason for investors' unease is simple: people just don't want their MTV. The performance of the cable business disappointed Wall Street and things aren't going to get better soon. Interestingly, Reuters points out that Viacom doesn't use the "C word" any more. They are now "media networks." Get it.

Perhaps the experts who were expecting a healthy cable upfront may have been too optimistic, though cable keeps snagging audience away from the broadcast networks. The bigger problem is that the Internet is stealing audience from cable. These are the young, hip viewers who advertisers covet. MTV has recently laid off workers and reorganized its sales force to better focus on the Internet.

For now, the company is very much in the TV business and that's a problem.

Continue reading Viacom won't feel much like partying at the upfronts

The picture is getting clearer at Viacom

If content is king, then Viacom Inc. (NYSE:VIA) should at least be a duke or maybe a baron. Instead, the parent company of Comedy Central and VH1 is seen by investors as a peasant.

Shares of Viacom have fallen 6 percent over the past year, while former corporate sibling CBS Corp. (NYSE:CBS) has soared 24 percent. Wall Street expected much more from Viacom and so did Chairman Sumner Redstone who replaced Tom Freston as chief executive and appointed Philippe Dauman in September.

Since then, Dauman has been flexing Viacom's muscles.

Earlier this month, he ordered Google Inc.'s (NASDAQ:GOOG) YouTube to remove 10,000 clips from its site that had been put there illegally. The company plans to cut jobs at its MTV networks unit as it focuses its efforts on creating digital content. The Financial Times pegs the reductions at 300, while the New York Post says it's 500. The Post says the company expects to save $250 million from the move.

Beneath all of the drama, though, is a very strong business. The New York-based company reports fourth-quarter earnings on March 1. Analysts are expecting earnings of 58 cents on revenue of $3.15 billion, according to Thomson Financial. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Viacom.

Continue reading The picture is getting clearer at Viacom

Can cable television be threatened by iTunes and Netflix?

Is the age coming when traditional cable television syndication and companies will be threatened by the emergence of web technologies that can deliver some of -- or the same -- content to customers? Who knew Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) would be competing with established TV networks back in 2001 when the iPod was introduced?

In reading this account by a blogger (an admittedly early adopter) who canceled his Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) subscription in order to get the same content from iTunes and Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) -- I have to wonder if the wonderful content empires that run popular culture with, umm, pretty trashy shows in any respect, will start crumbling as the democratization of content becomes more and more possible (and easier)?

The larger content distribution companies are in the game to bundle and make their shops a "one-stop shop" for consumers, playing up the angle that mucho dinero can be saved. Is this really true? Does this lock consumers into bundles where many of the offerings are substandard?

Maybe so -- I've always found better value and more personalized services going with different providers for everything. Although I don't "get everything on one bill" (I still don't get that marketing angle), I can pay them all in a few minutes using the web anyway.

Don't dump those television stocks just yet

Worried about the futures of companies with huge television and cable businesses, like News Corporation (NYSE:NWS), Viacom, Inc. (NYSE:VIA), Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:TWX) and General Electric Company (NYSE:GE), as American consumers supposedly watch less TV?

Count the sheer number of television sets around the country these days and it will ease your worries. In barber shops, tanning salons, grocery stores, day cares, massage parlors and pizza joints -- Americans love their television viewing time. In fact, TVs now outnumber the quantity of actual humans inside U.S. households. There are 2.73 televisions and only 2.53 actual people in the average American home.

This stat flies in the face of research that says television networks are losing throngs of customers to ad-skipping TiVo and Internet browsing, among other things.

Is television viewing on the decline? The number of TVs would *seem* to indicate that TVs are being utilized now more than ever.

New TV technology is a big part of that story. Huge and heavy CRT televisions are now being replaced by LCD TVs at a fast rate, which opens up new areas where TVs can be placed. It's hard to have a 15" TV on the kitchen counter, but you can throw a 15" LCD TV there pretty easily these days without compromising space. Why not watch The Food Channel while cooking up a Paula Deen recipe in the food center of every home, the kitchen? Paula would call that faintsy.

With half of American homes having three televisions these days -- and only 19% having just one -- it's hard to imagine the television going away anytime soon. That would be some packed landfills in the next decade if predictions of "the death of TV" were to come true!

It's the content that will come across those screens that is likely to change, yes? HDTV, cable television, DBS satellite and possibly WiMAX-TV will all be battling for each viewer while still trying to get viewers to watch advertising that gadgets will make an afterthought. So, how many TVs do you have in your household?

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