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Home resales up 9.4% in September, prices fall

Existing homes are starting to move again. Last month, home resales hit their highest level in more than two years, thrashing expectations. The 9.4% increase in home resales -- which entails a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.57 million -- is attributed largely to the deadline for the first-time home buyer tax credit.

According to the National Association of Realtors, the annualized, seasonally adjusted rate is up from the 5.1 million in August and far ahead of the 5.35 million expected for September (based on economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters).

Continue reading Home resales up 9.4% in September, prices fall

Soros to put $1 billion into clean-tech companies

The clean technology wave just got a little bigger. This tends to be a side-effect of interest from billionaire investor George Soros. And, as usual, it's more than just money; it's more than just a return. Soros, yet again, is trying to save the world. Interestingly, the bold move was announced at a meeting on climate change sponsored by Project Syndicate – an international association consisting of 430 newspapers from 150 countries (and thus with clear ties to the past, rather than future).

The investor and founder of Soros Fund Management LLC is planning to put $1 billion into clean-tech opportunities using what he calls "rather stringent criteria," which involves being "profitable but should also actually make a contribution to solving the problem [i.e., of clean technology adoption and proliferation]." Soros didn't provide any other details on the nature or scope of his investments.

Continue reading Soros to put $1 billion into clean-tech companies

Need a job? Consider a move to Nebraska

Lincoln, Neb., is the best place in the country for job-hunters. A new survey by headhunting firm Manpower (NYSE: MAN) reports that 21% of employers there plan to add employees in the next quarter, with only 4% looking to cut. That 17% spread (which Manpower calls the "net employment outlook") is tops in the United States.

Flint, Mich., on the other hand, is at the other end of the spectrum: 26% of employers are planning to chop jobs, while only 9% are forecasting new positions.

Continue reading Need a job? Consider a move to Nebraska

Labor-less Day

Last Friday the market reacted favorably (or less negatively) to the latest report from the Labor Department's unemployment figures of 9.7 percent in August, as employers cut 216,000 jobs last month. The percentage is up but the raw numbers are trending down allowing for a sigh of relief on Wall Street with the major indices all up over 1%.

Many would argue that when it comes to the truth, the government is prone to favor aesthetic figures instead of the straight data. I tend to agree with this view as the numbers appear sculpted to be the least offensive.

Continue reading Labor-less Day

Half of all mortgages to be underwater by 2011

Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) expects almost half of all U.S. homeowners to be underwater -- figuratively, of course -- by 2011.

Declines in home prices and the fact that some of those difficult mortgages just aren't going away put 26% of homeowners in this situation by the end of last March, and it seems the situation is only going to get worse. Unlike the early stages of the credit crisis, which were driven by subprime mortgages, the next iteration will have a greater effect on prime mortgage borrowers, which comprise two-thirds of the loans outstanding.

Continue reading Half of all mortgages to be underwater by 2011

Safeway: Upside potential remains

This was a complex call, but I'm Reiterating my Buy rating for Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) first recommended on February 20, 2009 at a price of $20.90.

Safeway is likely to continue to benefit from rising food demand for cheaper food, as the pronounced recession in California -- one of the states hardest hit by the housing downturn -- compels citizens to belt-tighten and seek less expensive food options. The FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for SWY are $2.11 to $2.29.

Continue reading Safeway: Upside potential remains

Most Californians clamor for a tobacco tax increase

Ahhh ... California. Home of the Beach Boys, Napa Valley, and, just recently, IOUs. Indeed, the Golden State is in dire financial straits, and looking for any way out. One suggestion? Tax the smokers. A recent poll of state voters shows 70% in favor of a $1.50-per-pack increase in the state cigarette tax.

Breaking down the numbers across party lines, 78% of Democrats, 75% of independents, and 65% of Republicans approve of such a measure. But Republican leadership remains opposed to the idea. A spokeswoman told reporters "Tax increases aren't the answer. Neither is tying programs with increasing costs to a tax source that is declining."

Continue reading Most Californians clamor for a tobacco tax increase

Bad news triggers a rally in the bond market

Unlike the stock market, the bond market thrives on "bad" news. Why is this? The main reason is the money trail. Investors are quick to move their money from stocks into bonds when something bad happens.

Yesterday we had plenty of bad news. The U.S. job market lost 467,000 jobs, a 26-year high. Now to add fuel to the fire, wages are dropping due to layoffs and shortened work weeks (WSJ subscription required). Fewer people are working, which means less money that consumers have to spend. That signals a slower economy.

Continue reading Bad news triggers a rally in the bond market

California issues I.O.U.'s -- eat that seniors!

This is unbelievable! California (my home state) is going to issue I.O.U.'s to seniors, disabled and welfare recipients starting tomorrow because our State Legislature cannot agree on a budget. This is outrageous beyond belief!

Next time someone refers to California as the "Golden State" the laughter from all corners of the nation will be deafening. They say that California Bonds and Schools will not be affected.

What I want to know is whether the politicians will be getting paid in I.O.U.'s. There are many people in the land of the petition and ballot initiative that would be in favor of a law that says the politicians do not get paid for twice the time it takes to settle the budget beyond yesterdays (June 30) deadline.

Continue reading California issues I.O.U.'s -- eat that seniors!

California home prices inch higher again, fingers crossed everywhere

The median price for existing homes in California gained 1.4% in April, posting an increase for a second month in a row. The bold are calling this the bottom (or close to it), though another financial market surprise could change the rules as it did six months ago. However, if the small uptick is real, it could mean that the worst is behind us, as some use the California residential real estate market as a leading indicator for the broader economy.

Continue reading California home prices inch higher again, fingers crossed everywhere

Safeway: A frugality play, for the new era

Acting boldly in any stock market carries with it considerable risk. Acting boldly in this market, amid the U.S. recession and an unresolved toxic asset situation, and you're looking at a 30-40% haircut up ahead. (Or worse.)

Still, investors capable of tolerating risk would be wise to position themselves in a few defensive plays with decent upside potential. But let's make one thing clear: defensives with an upside are not, strictly speaking, conventional defensive plays. They carry more risk but, one could argue, that risk is reasonable, given the potential for the capital appreciation pop. With the above as a backdrop, grocery chain Safeway (NYSE: SWY) is worth a review.

Continue reading Safeway: A frugality play, for the new era

Home prices continue to drop, but is it really a bad thing?

Home prices drop in fourth quarterWe all know that the real estate market is in trouble, and another sign of just how bad things are came out today as the National Association of Realtors announced another steep drop in home prices during the fourth quarter.

The NAR started keeping comprehensive data on home sales back in 1979, and in that time period there has not been another quarter that saw home prices drop as much as they did in the fourth quarter of last year. So just how much did values drop? A massive 12.4%.

Continue reading Home prices continue to drop, but is it really a bad thing?

Tell-tale stat: Sales of $1 million homes plunge 43% in California in 2008

Is the U.S. housing sector approaching a bottom? Many economists and real estate analysts says it's too soon to talk in terms of 'a bottom' - - a process that will take months, if not quarters.

Still, one stat that indicates a bottom may be on the horizon: high-end home sales in California.

Sales of homes worth at least $1 million plummeted 42.5% in 2008 to 24,436, down from 42,506 in 2007, according to research compiled by DataQuick.

In 2008, one in 16 California homes sold for $1 million or more; in 2007, one in nine had a price at / above $1 million.

Continue reading Tell-tale stat: Sales of $1 million homes plunge 43% in California in 2008

Will Meg Whitman do to California what she did to eBay?

Former eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) Chief Executive Meg Whitman reportedly is quitting the board of the online auctioneer along with Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG), and Dreamworks Animation SKG Inc. (NYSE: DWA) to run for governor of California.

The news -- first reported by the Wall Street Journal -- should not warm the hearts of Californians. Under Whitman, eBay morphed from one of the leaders on the information superhighway to roadkill left on the side of the road. The company's high growth days are behind it.

Since leaving eBay last year, she has immersed herself in Republican politics, backing the campaigns of her old friend Mitt Romney and John McCain. Interestingly, her contemporary Carly Fiorina, ex head of Hewlett-Packard Co. (NASDAQ: HPQ), also backed the GOP.

Should Whitman take the plunge, the odds are against her. For one thing, no one outside of stock geeks and disgruntled eBay sellers knows her name. Of course, several million dollars worth of television advertising will take care of that.

California's problems are enormous. The state, which has been hit especially hard by the subprime mortgage crisis, faces a $42 billion budget deficit. State officials are threatening to pay their bills with IOUS. It's a situation that is trying the superhuman strength of the governator Arnold Schwarzenegger.

What makes Whitman believe she can do better?

State governments look for hand-outs

There is increasing evidence that states like California and Michigan, which are running huge budget deficits, will need federal aid to keep their essential services operating. They could plummet an already battered federal budget billions of dollars further into a deficit.

The need for state bailout funds seems to be growing and growing quickly. According to MSNBC, "In Ohio, which has shed 100,000 jobs in the past year, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and his budget team spend a lot of time delivering bad news to constituents and plotting ways to wring money from the federal government." The state's two-year budget deficit could rise to well over $7 billion.

In places like Ohio and Michigan, matters are only going to get worse. Big industrial states are extremely likely to lose more jobs and businesses as sectors from automotive to retailing may see some companies disappear completely.

The issue that becomes more troubling every day is whether there is a finite limit to what the federal government can spend to save the national economy. Of course there is, but no one knows that number, which means no one can predict which industries and municipalities will get capital.

With so many beggars, the new Congress and administration are going to run low on hand-outs.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 12:59 PM

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